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The Rosehill Guineas, despite carrying a purse of $600,000, has been bumped as the feature race on its own day thanks to the massive increase in prizemoney to the George Ryder, and the accompanying move forward a week from Golden Slipper day.
By the time we reach the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m, the form of the three-year-olds is well and truly exposed. Many of them will have met in the Spring, and most have met in either or both of the Randwick Guineas and Australian Guineas at Flemington.
Dissident narrowly heads the market after his gritty wins in both the Hobartville Stakes and Randwick Guineas. Rare is the Melbourne horse that does most of its racing in Sydney, but Peter Moody obviously knows what he’s doing, and his charge has transformed from a talented non-winner to possibly the best three-year-old in the land.
When it comes to Group 1 racing against his own age, the only horses currently in Australia to have beaten Dissident are Zoustar and Shamus Award.
The latter is the third favourite in this race, and the Cox Plate winner will be making his first appearance outside Victorian borders. At Group 1 level, he has two wins and two thirds to his credit, but last start disappointed as second favourite behind Fiorente in the Australian Cup, who has also raced poorly since.
Our own Justin Cinque thinks Shamus Award will be an out-and-out miler, so it will be good to judge him against over a mile and a quarter on Saturday.
Puccini will by vying with Dissident for favouritism, and comes from New Zealand after racing through the summer in possession of three Group 2 Guineas and Group 1 New Zealand Derby. He met Atlante, who we’ve now seen twice in Australia, last November, and found himself one-and-a-half lengths inferior.
Jockey Michael Walker said he might just be the best horse he’s ever ridden. Perhaps our esteemed Roarers might have some insight into how good he might be?
While on the Kiwis, Atlante has run well both times in Sydney, and while he almost clawed back Dissident in the Hobartville, he was left for dead in the Randwick Guineas after seemingly having every chance.
Teronado finds himself right in the market after a consistent campaign where he has caught the eye three races in a row, including a smart fifth in the Australian Guineas and a slashing fourth in the Randwick Guineas, coming from near last each time.
He has looked like he’ll eat up a step up to 2000m, but I’m not so sure. He may well of course, but it won’t surprise me if he’s just a run-on miler. He’s got a good one in him, and we may see him look at a Toorak Handicap in the Melbourne spring.
Others coming from the Randwick Guineas include Criterion, who was poor there after being excellent in Melbourne, Savvy Nature, who gave little when more was expected of him, Hooked, who was honest but out-classed, as well as Tupac Amaru and Show the World, who are looking for a Derby distance at the minimum.
Thunder Fantasy is, like Shamus Award, another coming straight from the Australian Guineas and Cup. His Guineas’ third suggested he’d be crying out for 2000m, especially as a Victorian Derby place-getter, but he possibly didn’t handle the back-up, and raced flat accordingly.
If he’s able to bounce back to his best, as Anthony Cummings’ runners often do, he’s one of many with an superb each-way chance at double figure odds.
His stablemate, Surge Ahead, is bringing Alastair Clark form from Moonee Valley to the race. He was unable to go with the winner Pheidon, a previously restricted grade horse in both Melbourne and Sydney, so it’s hard to think the race will stand up here.
Cadillac Mountain ran second for Peter Moody in the same race, but was coming off a Benchmark 70 himself, and had shown himself eight lengths off the better horses in the spring.
Late Charge has run some nice races behind the best, and could be a blow-out first four hope, while Order of the Sun, Mr One Eleven and Eyre Square all have their work cut out for them based on everything we’ve seen so far.
There doesn’t look a heap of natural speed in the race, but the top two saddle-cloths, Shamus Award and Dissident, may sit that way in running. The wet Sydney weather will also add an element of the unknown, with many of these potentially being exposed to the slops for the first time.
Despite the familiar formlines, this looks an extremely tough race to work out.
Selections: 1. Thunder Fantasy 2. Dissident 3. Puccini 4. Shamus Award
The Galaxy, a $400,000 1100m sprint formerly held at Randwick during their carnival, must be seen as one of the more gettable Group 1 sprints on the racing calendar, and is often a breakthrough win at the highest level for the victor.
In fact, there are only three Australian Group 1 winners in the field and two of them, Bel Sprinter and Temple of Boom, claimed that prize in this race over the last two years. They’ll both go around at double-figure odds this time, with neither having won since.
Snitzerland heads up the betting, despite the fact she’ll be giving weight to almost all of her male counterparts.
Her form this campaign is exemplary, claiming the Group 1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington last month, and following it up with a narrow second to the surprise winner of the Challenge Stakes, Villa Verde.
It’s going to be tough for her to defy the handicapper, but she’s all class and is capable of doing it.
Villa Verde was once thought to be the best two-year-old in the country, but failed to live up to the hype her first two starts brought. A change of stable and state did the trick, delivering a weight-for-age victory after being heavily backed at good odds to do so.
She drops a kilo on that run too, so must be every chance to back it up with another victory.
The Challenge Stakes is certainly the key form race here, with almost the entire field turning out again.
Third home in that race was the honest and capable Famous Seamus for Noel Mayfield-Smith. He isn’t well in for a horse that’s never won at Group level, but rare is the race he runs poorly, whatever the level.
Bel Sprinter ran fourth in what was his best performance for almost a year, savaging the line more than any other. An untrustworthy customer and renowned barrier rogue, barrier two may not help him, especially if jockeys are looking wider as the track cuts out.
Whittington was next home, weakening off a strong tempo, but holding on better than Buffering was able to. He gets the most weight relief of any horse from that race, which will hold him in good stead. All hearts will go out to rider Tommy Berry if he’s able to steer this one to victory.
Sessions has shown Group 1 and weight-for-age ability at different stages in his career, and gets his best chance here in a handicap. He gets a nice weight swing on the quinella from the Challenge, and he also has the turn of foot to sit back in the field and overcome them off a likely hot speed.
Temple of Boom loves a rain-affected track, and must come into serious reckoning under those conditions. He’s a quality animal, and what a story it would be for Tony Gollan to back up Spirit of Boom’s William Reid win from last week.
Tiger Tees has a nine of 10 next to his name in the formguide from last start, but he was only beaten two lengths and now gets to the distance he’s won at more than any other. Half the field could be in a photo finish in this race, and this horse should be one of them.
Satin Shoes ran last in the Challenge, never looking likely at any stage. She’s the despised outsider, and it’s hard to see her turning it around against this sort of field.
Rain Affair wasn’t disgraced in the Canterbury Stakes behind Appearance, and gets a chance in easier grade here.
He hasn’t raced over 1100m in a year-and-a-half, but it’s worth remembering he has five wins from seven starts over the distance. Maybe this is the secret to return him to his best. A slow track is something else to look for – last time he struck one, he took out the Missile Stakes by five-and-a-half lengths.
Kencella is the fresh horse on the scene, a four-year-old having won six of his nine races, but it’s some sort of meteoric rise to go from winning a Benchmark 85 to starting second favourite in a Group 1 within two starts.
In his favour is he’s an 1100m specialist, is unbeaten at Rosehill, and only has 52 kgs on his back. As a speed horse, he’s going to have to be good to beat Snitzerland at both ends, let alone deal with whatever Rain Affair throws up, and the form behind his last start victory is questionable.
See The World carried a whopping 63.5 kgs last start, and still almost picked up and ran down Territory at Warwick Farm. He’ll enjoy dropping down to 55 but probably isn’t classy enough to beat them all.
Irish Fling is a Group 1 winner, albeit on the minimum, in New Zealand, and deserves her crack after coming across the Tasman. Anatina has been brought north by Robert Smerdon, and it would be a major shock if this three-year-old filly contended.
This looks like a race with several natural speedsters, which should in theory set it up for the backmarkers to run over the top. A slow or heavy track might mitigate this, and one of the leaders might just keep on going.
Selections: 1. Sessions 2. Villa Verde 3. Temple of Boom 4. Rain Affair
Join me tomorrow for our bumper horse-by-horse preview of the $1,000,000 George Ryder Stakes.