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The Blues host the Highlanders at Eden Park Auckland tonight. Join The Roar for live scores and coverage from 5:35pm AEDT.
The ninth placed Blues, on 12 points, will be happy to face the 10th place Highlanders who sit on 11 points. The bookies tend to agree.
The Blues won all but one of the last five clashes hosted by them by a handsome margin. On a normal week, they would win. But recent weeks in Super Rugby have been fluctuating to say the least:
– The Lions made a meal out of the Reds
– The Force overpowered the Chiefs
– The Rebels overran the Brumbies
– The Hurricanes blew away the Crusaders
Can the Highlanders also upset the tipsters and gain ascendency over the Blues?
It would be their first back-to-back win in two years. It would also become the second win against the Blues in two months.
In Round 2, Highlanders’ first half tries paved the way for a four-try bonus point win – with contributions from the Smiths, complemented by a mistake-ridden Blues.
Forest Gump Performances
Both teams are trying to deliver improvements from last year’s performance, with both finishing in the bottom six.
And it shows. They are like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re going to get. Then again, this can be said of many teams in Super 15 to date.
Just like Forest Gump, both teams are expected to run a lot in this match. Defence from both sides has been abysmal, along with their lineouts. Blues are stand out in the set piece in having the lowest scrum win rate.
So the Highlanders will try to use their strong pack to gain ascendency. Perhaps with Woodcock back in the fray for the Blues can put a bit more starch up front, in set piece and in loose contact.
Defence is not a four letter word
Both sides have conceded an average of around 20 points per game – probably the main reason they are ranked down the table.
Interestingly, the Blues have some of the lowest missed tackle rates whereas Highlanders hves the highest in the competition.
If the Blues minimise turnovers, tweak their defensive systems to improve tackle support they can close out this game. The Highlanders, on the other hand, have a bigger defensive problem. So until they find a way to fix this, their plan is possession and attack!
Pack a d win
Set piece penalties are a bane for the Blues. In six rounds they have conceded the most scrum offences in the whole competition: 18! (14 more than Highlanders). They also win the award for most maul penalties in the comp to date.
Support play has been ordinary for both teams. Ruck wins for both sides are at around 78%. The Blues have also been caught out running too far ahead of support conceding 11 penalties for not releasing, equalling Stormers and behind the Reds’ 14.
Pack Line Up
Pack weight from both sides are identical at 895kg. It’s also a battle of the bung knees with 39-year-old Brad Thorn and 33-year-old King (220 caps) against 33-year-old Tony Woodcock and 30-year-old Jermoe Kaino (215 caps). The Blues openside flanker has Braid has outrun Christie to date, and may continue.
The Highlanders have made some changes from their previous clash: hooker McCartney starts ahead of Coltman, and Dixon moves back to blindside flank after recovering from a hamstring injury.
Woodcock and McCartney are up front instead of Parsons and Tu’ungafasi. Donnelly makes way for Triggs in the second row. Kaino comes in for wrecking ball Saili who will play from the bench.
Backs Line Up
This week’s matchup to watch is the 21-year-old, 99 kilogram Fekitoa vs 31-year-old, 105 kilo Ma’a Nonu who starts for the first time this season.
Fekitoa, a former Blue, leads the comp in defenders beaten (17). Other matchups are not far behind: Piutau has run 326 metres so far, one metre less than Ben Smith. Another is Fijian sideline flyer/finisher Osborne vs Tongan winger Frank Halai.
The Field
The forecast is around 20 degree celsius, cloudy with Steve Walsh as the referee. Though the contact area is unlikely to be a big battle, there may be sloppy work that Walsh and co. needs to keep clean, without getting in the way of continuity.
Prediction
A try-fest. Neither coaching team has yet demonstrated how to get their teams to defend, but I’m going against the bookies and tip the Highlanders to win.
Their pack will be hunting for turnover penalties, scrum penalties, any kind of soft penalties, dropped balls for counter-attack. Also without Weepu, the Blues are at a disadvantage compared to the Highlanders tricky half Aaron Smith and point machine Sapoanga. Halai and Willison at outside centre continues to be a defensive risk.
For the Blues to win they need to retain possession, stop the Highlanders from scoring a run of early points before they can bring on their superior depth and tire out the visitors. A decent scrum wouldn’t hurt either.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.