The Roar
The Roar

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It's Sagan's time in the Tour of Flanders

Peter Sagan has been in hot form. (AFP PHOTO / JEFF PACHOUD)
Expert
2nd April, 2014
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Last week, Roar expert Lee Rogers mounted a convincing argument about why the Slovak Slayer Peter Sagan won’t win Sunday’s Tour of Flanders.

Despite his firepower, Lee believes that Sagan’s brute strength won’t be enough to overcome the more experienced and race favourites Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara.

“The Swiss and the Belgian are too experienced to fall for anything but the con job of a master. Sagan just isn’t smart enough yet to do that.

“Boonen has a far greater wealth in experience of conserving energy for the sprint at both races and can go it alone when on his absolute best form. Cancellara can go it alone from just about anywhere, even if at 90 per cent against most riders.”

All perfectly valid observations given Cancellara and Boonen’s record at Flanders and more broadly in the Classics.

Cancellara is the defending champion, and also won in 2010. Boonen won in 2012 after going back to back in 2005-06. Between them they’ve won an amazing 20 Classics, with Boonen leading 12 races to 8.

It’s hard to imagine a better head-to-head rivalry in world cycling right now, but Sagan is not one to dwell on sentiment as he continues to win races at a frightening rate.

Sagan only has two Classics victories but I think he is ready to win and will show us why in the early hours of Monday, Australian time.

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Sagan’s second place last year, when Cancellara danced away on the gruelling 20 per cent gradient of the Paterberg, and turned left at the summit with a seven-second advantage will have burned deep.

Sagan looked like he was going to hang on to Cancellara’s back wheel, but as the gradient headed towards its maximum, Spartacus never even got out of the saddle, his legs spinning Sagan into submission before he time-trialled to victory.

Sagan will have learned from that as he should’ve done by hitting out too early at Gent Wavelgem last weekend.

Cancellara’s attack at last year’s Flanders was an unforgettable moment, and it was closely followed by another – that super-impressive two-up sprint win against Sep Vanmarcke at Paris-Roubaix.

But since then, his only wins have come in individual time trials.

Second at a frigid Milan San Remo was impressive, but Cancellara was well beaten by Katusha’s Norwegian hard man Alexander Kristoff.

As Sagan racked up pro win number 59 at E3 Harelbeke, Cancellara finished ninth, 1:19 behind the Slovakian. He only managed 38th at Gent Wavelgem.

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Sagan won easily despite him saying he wasn’t going that well in a race that was as notable for the crashes as it was for the Slovak’s super-show.

One of those crashes involved Tom Boonen, who damaged a thumb. He still claimed 11th spot before finishing fifth at Gent Wavelgem in discomfort. Anything less than a full recovery may just push Tomeke slightly off his game on the bone-jarring Flanders cobbles.

Up until his enforced break after the tragic stillbirth of his daughter, Boonen was looking like he was really back to his best with victory at Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne.

The solid GW ride showed a tilt at a record fourth Flanders is well and truly on, but for me Sagan has had the most impressive preparation. Due to the rivalry between Cancellara and Boonen, he may be able to capitalise if the two distract each other.

Second at Strade Bianchi, 10th at MSR, third at Gent Wavelgem and the two wins at Harelbeke and on day one of Three Days of De Panne, is a consistency that neither Boonen nor Cancellara have been able to match this season.

And on that opening-day De Panne victory, Sagan set up the decisive break with a devastating attack on the penultimate climb of the Eikenmolen. He then won despite trying to let his teammate Oscar Gatto take the victory.

More impressively at Harelbeke, Sagan outfoxed Omega-Pharma Quickstep duo Niki Terpstra and Stijn Vandenbergh and Sky’s Geraint Thomas before decisively winning the sprint.

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Last year Sagan may just have tried to ride away from them in the final couple of kilometres, but not at Harelbeke. Along with Thomas they reeled in several attacks by the Quickstep duo in the final three kilometres before Sagan sprinted away to win well.

This may just be showing the race smarts Lee Rogers believes Sagan lacks.

Time will tell of course, but along with the Tour, Giro and Paris Roubaix, the Tour of Flanders is in my top five races and I can’t wait to see what happens.

Sagan, Boonen, Cancellara. What a podium that would be.

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