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2014 Golden Slipper: Preview and tips

Tommy Berry before the Golden Slipper. (Photo: Paul Barkley/LookPro)
Expert
3rd April, 2014
14
4483 Reads

The Golden Slipper, a race for two-year-olds under set weights conditions over 1200m at Rosehill, stands as the third-richest race in Australia with a purse of $3.5M, coming in behind only the Melbourne Cup ($6.2M) and the newly-minted feature race of The Championships, the Queen Elizabeth Stakes ($4.0M).

The race is the final leg of the Australian Grand Slam, and there is no race quite like it anywhere in the world. “Breed for speed” is the motto of the Australian racing industry, with the Slipper being the Golden jewel all are chasing.

This year, a pall of sadness has been cast over Rosehill’s big day, as the racing family struggles to deal with the tragic death of Nathan Berry at the age of just 23, who succumbed to complications arising from NORSE syndrome.

Since he was diagnosed with the illness, there have been pictures doing the rounds of an ecstatic Nathan and new wife Whitney, taken on their wedding day two months ago. I defy anyone to look at them in light of yesterday’s devastating news without shedding a tear. To see the joy in their eyes, faces full of optimism and hope, life and love, is to remind us how delicately balanced all of our lives are. I’m sure I speak for all Roarers when I say all thoughts and prayers are with the families and friends of all affected.

Based on the tributes flowing through social media and news sites, it’s clear we have lost a young man that touched many lives in a meaningful way.

To make matters even more poignant, it was exactly a year ago that Nathan’s twin, Tommy, rode Overreach to victory in the Slipper, his finest hour. The first one to congratulate him? Nathan of course.

As trite as it seems, the races will go on. Perhaps the best way to pay tribute will be for the day to become a celebration of Nathan’s life, as hard as it may seem.

Let’s have a look at each runner in the Golden Slipper. As I write this preview, I’m unaware if Nathan’s family – Tommy Berry, Glyn Schofield and Chad Schofield – will be taking their rides.

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1. Unencumbered
Unencumbered started the year in a blaze of glory, winning the Gold Coast Magic Millions with Nathan Berry in the saddle, giving the lost talent his greatest personal glory on a racetrack.

He wasn’t able to go with Mossfun on a slow track in the Silver Slipper when brought back to Sydney, but returned to something like his best with a second in the Todman last start. If you swap his run with that of winner Ghibellines, you would likely swap the result.

He doesn’t know how to run a bad race, and is sure to be competitive on ground that is dead or better. He’ll have the spirit of Nathan willing him on, no doubt.

2. Jabali
Despite still being a maiden, only one other colt (Unencumbered) has won more prizemoney than Jabali, thanks to his Blue Diamond second place to Earthquake. Prior to that, he had also run a closing second to Rubick in the Diamond Prelude.

He failed to flatter when brought to Sydney though, clearly not racing up to his best when beaten four lengths into seventh in the Todman. It’s not easy to win a Slipper coming off a flop, but Mick Price claims he has done everything right to bounce back.

3. Ghibellines
Ghibellines was a strong winner of the Todman Stakes, belying his starting price of $41. Whenever a winner at big odds wins a big race lead-up, it immediately calls into the question the form surrounding him.

He had run okay in the Black Opal down at Canberra, without suggesting he was ready to claim a major prize. Most felt the fillies were the stronger sex in the two-year-old ranks this season, Ghibellines’ Todman win seemed to confirm it.

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Many punters will be hoping for a Peter Snowden victory come 5pm Saturday, but it’s not this horse they’re thinking of.

4. Valentia
Valentia will be the feel-good winner of the day if Tommy Berry can steer him to victory for obvious reasons, as the thoughts of all racing people are with he and his family.

The Gai Waterhouse colt is coming in off two straight victories, the latest in the Skyline Stakes three weeks ago, but the form around him must be declared questionable at best.

He’ll put himself in the race from a perfect barrier, but he doesn’t look good enough to be testing his high-class opposition, despite his trainer suggesting “whatever beats him will win”.

5. Cornrow
Cornrow is the second Mick Price maiden to be taking his place in the Golden Slipper field, and should prove himself a worthy competitor.

He seems to be always running on into the placings, but never really looks like winning. He was a couple of lengths off Earthquake in the Blue Diamond, and found himself in similar arrears in the Todman when working home into third, both Ghibellines and Unencumbered giving him a start and a beating.

It’s hard to see him challenging with that history behind him.

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6. Law
Law is the second of Gai’s runners, and will be starting among the despised outsiders at around $71.

He won a four-horse race upon resumption in style, and it’s worth noting the horse he beat by 3.5 lengths into third that day, Klammer, has since run some handy races, beating home Ghibellines in the Black Opal and also running well in the Pago Pago on a heavy track.

There are question marks on his class, but there are worst bolters to put your faith in.

7. Modoc
The Paul Perry-trained Modoc has been up for a while, and is in fact still in his debut campaign (the Slipper will be his seventh start) without any sort of break.

Not comfortable on wet tracks, and he’s struck three of them so far, he has still run soundly in all but one race, when failing behind Mossfun in the Silver Slipper. He was still able to run okay on a heavy track last start, but Justin Cinque thought he may have struggled to run out a strong 1200m.

For mine, the jury is still out. I’ve seen worse 100-1 shots if you’re looking for something exotic.

8. Risen From Doubt
Risen From Doubt is another that will jump at big odds, even if his trainer, Tony McEvoy, is non-plussed at the thought.

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He beat Jabali in style down the Flemington straight on debut in the Maribyrnong Trial and was immediately spelled for a tilt at the Slipper. He was yet another that failed to make an impression behind Mossfun in the Silver Slipper, and was one of the on-pace runners that set the Todman up for Ghibellines and Unencumbered to run on.

He hasn’t had things go his way, but we’d like to have seen more to be convinced he was a winning chance.

9. Earthquake
Earthquake is indisputably the star two-year-old this season, and the top-class filly is clearly the testing material in this race.

She’s yet to be really pushed in her races, and walked away with the Blue Diamond in arrogant style, putting paid to her rivals in a few strides. Peter Snowden knows what it takes to do the Diamond/Slipper double, having done so with Sepoy, and there’s no doubt he’s got the horse to do it again.

Barrier 12 might be a concern for some, and she did have an elevated temperature earlier in the week, which may be news that sees punters avoid her.

The one to beat.

10. Mossfun
Mossfun has the distinction of being the horse to finish closer to Earthquake than any other, and she’s the market-elect to be first to finish in front of her.

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She took out the Widden in effortless style in her first run this prep, and dominated the Silver Slipper by four lengths on a slow track, leaving many of tomorrow’s rivals in her wake.

She tracked Earthquake all the way last time out but couldn’t quite go with her at the business end of the Riesling. If the favourite can’t run up to her best for any number of reasons, this is the filly the others will have to catch.

11. Oakleigh Girl
Oakleigh Girl is attempting to do what precious few have in winning the Golden Slipper first-up, so will not only have to defy history, but also Unencumbered, who beat her home the last two times they met in Queensland.

She’s had two good trials leading into the race, so will be fit enough if good enough, but it would be some sort of training performance to pull off this heist.

12. Eloping
It’s strange to see Eloping in the Golden Slipper after connections decided to forgo the Blue Diamond due to distance queries and the presence of Earthquake – both of which are problems in this race too.

She has since won a good race in Bendigo, but it’s hard to see her be a contender here, especially as an on-pace horse in a high pressure race. I can’t see a way she could possibly win.

13. Alpha Miss
Alpha Miss is one of the sneaky place chances at nice odds who could possibly take the race out if everything goes her way and some key rivals find misfortune.

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She was ridden on the pace in her first few starts, but seems to be a better filly when taking a sit, as she did in winning the Lonhro, and when chasing down Earthquake and Mossfun last start.

She still needs to find a length or two to beat them all, but you should be loathe to leave her out of your trifecta.

14. Bring Me The Maid
Bring Me The Maid is the fresh horse on the scene, brought north by the flying Peter Moody stable to great effect, ploughing through the slops last week to mow down a 15-horse field, and being installed as third favourite in this.

Chad Schofield is riding as well as anyone currently, and we can only hope the young man can bring his best to the racetrack under the extreme and tragic duress he must be currently under. Any extra rain would clearly help his mount’s chances.

15. Memorial
Memorial is another roughie that must be given some hope of running a big race. While not racing in the class of most others here, she hadn’t put a hoof wrong until last start in the Riesling, when she offered little to run ninth of nine.

Perhaps The Roar racing crowd can tell us when the last time a Slipper winner was coming off a last place run, but it can’t have happened often, if at all.

Trainer Peter Snowden applied winkers last time but has ripped them straight off, saying he made a huge mistake, and to forget she ever ran. Even still, she needs to find a few lengths based on previous form to trouble all of these.

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16. Believe Yourself
Believe Yourself may not have many fans in the betting ring, but she is one of only two horses to bring an unbeaten record into the race, with the other being Earthquake of course.

She graduated from maiden status to Group 2 winner last start, taking out the Sweet Embrace and coming from last to do so – rare for a two-year-old. The horse she ran down, Twirl, hasn’t been far behind the likes of Earthquake, Rubick and Mossfun in her career.

We know Gerald Ryan is a master handler of juvenile horse-flesh, so Believe Yourself is quite capable of being the ‘odds horse’ to figure in multiples.

17. Scratch Me Lucky (1st emerg)
Scratch Me Lucky ran Alpha Miss to a neck back in October, but hasn’t shown anything since to suggest he’ll be a player if able to sneak into the field.

Golden Slipper day is always exciting, but this year’s affair may be a sombre one, run in the shadow of the loss of Nathan Berry. Let’s wish godspeed to every jockey that puts their leg over a horse this weekend, and no doubt everyone riding at Rosehill will be doing so with Nathan and his family in their thoughts.

Selections: 1. Earthquake 2. Mossfun 3. Alpha Miss 4. Believe Yourself

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