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I must say I was surprised prior to the Force/Reds game to have a quick look at a Fox Sports Round 8 preview to see the Force in excess of $3.50 for a win.
How could this be? I thought about the key considerations generally taken to establish a favourite in a two-horse race:
Form:
The Reds had come off a terrible tour of South Africa and limped to an insipid victory over the Stormers last week. [It must be noted that the Stormers were at the end of a disastrous Australasian tour, injury struck (including their talismatic Schalk and a terrible arm injury to Gio during the game) and clearly out on their feet]. The Reds looked tired and could easily have lost this game.
The Force were well rested after their bye weekend. They had beaten a buoyant Rebels side at home, a tough Highlanders team in Dunedin (no easy task, let alone achieving the bonus point) and the back-to-back Super Rugby champions in Perth after travelling back from New Zealand.
Home ground advantage:
Perhaps a valid reason for hesitancy in picking the Force, the home ground advantage has been strong this year with around a 75 per cent home victory rate.
Further considering in the previous week’s game against the Stormers, as mentioned above, and the fact that the Force won at Suncorp last year, negates this somewhat.
One reason for a strong home ground advantage is the excessive travel often required between games for a team. This was much less of a factor with the Force coming off the bye.
Another, especially in Sub Tropical Queensland, can be the change in climate. With a number of Queenslanders in the Force and a team acclimatised to summer Perth, again I didn’t see this as a major factor.
Squad strength:
The Reds were heading in with a number of injuries. Turner, Faiinga, Shipperley, Toua, Gill to start.
The Force? McMenniman is about the only top line injury and the fact is the Force have developed this season without much of Hugh.
Without the key players from the Reds, a one-eyed Reds supporter would have to agree that the Force probably have the ascendancy in key positions. Matthewson, McCalman, Hodgson, Cottrell, Cowan and Charles have all been arguably among the best Australian conference performers this year.
Godwin and the Honey Badger have been staunch in the backs, perhaps an area of strength for the Reds… until the above injuries are factored in.
There are obviously additional factors such as “will to win” and I will quote a few from the expert Roar panelists, who further bemused me by unanimously picking the Reds with four out of seven powerplays on the Reds!
“The Reds are building nicely, and it’s tough to pick the Force when teams coming off the bye haven’t gone well this season.” – BM
“The Reds will beat the Force because I don’t think the Force can play any better than they have recently, and the Reds have plenty of room to improve.” – SA
“However, despite their recent wins I see the Reds taking this in Brisbane, where the record stands at a much more convincing 5-1.” – PE
“The Reds should improve in their second week in Brisvegas after a tough trip, and will dispatch the Force (probably, maybe, ugh).” – EP
“The Reds are generally unbeatable at home, so they are my pick.” SZ
“The Reds because nobody can perform that poorly in successive weeks” – BB
I also had a quick look at one of the few articles written about the Force on the Roar, “The Force were great but let’s not get carried away” by Brett McKay.
“Over the next month, the Force face the Highlanders in Dunedin, the Chiefs at home, the Reds in Brisbane, and the Waratahs at home, before the rematch against the Rebels over the Easter weekend.
If the Force want to be taken seriously and have the Super Rugby competition take them seriously, they’ll win at least two of those games against quality opposition, and ideally one away from home too.”
Given that the K.P.I. set for the Force to be taken seriously was already achieved prior to the Reds game, why weren’t they?
Is it because for so long the default position is to tip against the Force (I remember picking up many points with the same technique against the Reds in the 2000’s)?
I actually think that the real reason is that the Eastern centric media do not want the Force to win (just listen to the Fox Sports commentary as exhibit A).
Regardless, I fear the Western Force will remain the perennial underdogs in the Australian conference.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.