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I have made some predictions this NRL season and all are going reasonably well at the five-round mark.
Penrith and St George Illawarra were two of my picks to make solid rises up the ladder in 2014, while I wrote that Chris Sandow could be the making of Parra’s season and also suggested teenage halfback Luke Brooks and Wests Tigers’ Department of Youth would create plenty of excitement.
Here’s another guess – and I am taking a deep breath before delivering it – but I see some serious cracks developing in the Melbourne Storm defence that could widen into canyons before long, costing one of the NRL’s best performed teams of the past decade a finals berth.
In short, I think Melbourne’s once-feared goal-line armour has become brittle and for the first time in yonks, opposing teams believe they can breach it consistently enough to win games.
Just look at the Storm’s scores so far this season: W 23-22 v Manly, W 18-17 v Penrith, W 29-20 v Newcastle, L 12-40 v Canterbury and L 26-28 v Gold Coast.
By my reckoning, that’s a hefty 127 points against as opposed to 107 for and a negative differential of -20.
That blowout in Perth against the Bulldogs followed the Jordan McLean controversy and reasonable people could make some allowance for that. But last weekend’s game against the Titans must have caused plenty of angst for coach Craig Bellamy, a character who would probably sell his mother for a shut-out.
The Titans scored some of the softest tries I have ever seen against a Melbourne team, ultimately drawing level before receiving a late and highly dubious penalty goal that brought an upset win.
It was the manner in which the Storm conceded those five tries that should be major cause for concern in the southern capital. No-one had to run through that once-feared purple brick wall to register four points. Scoring chances arose on a regular basis and the Gold Coast were good enough to capitalise and snaffle the competition lead.
The week before, the Bulldogs romped all over, around and through the Storm defence. In the two weeks before that, the Panthers and Sea Eagles registered plenty of points but were beaten by field goals.
I have watched all five Storm games in 2014 and have a suspicion that the hunger to protect their line has waned alarmingly. The modern Storm players are not respecting possession as their predecessors did, giving up far too many penalties, and giving the opposition a leg-up.
Others have been watching, too, and many of them are NRL opponents.
It now seems if you can pressure Melbourne for long enough, the Storm will lose their thunder and lightning and the skies will clear for teams to register points aplenty.
Manly showed everyone in Round 1 that there are some serious chinks in the once impregnable Melbourne armour. Geoff Toovey’s men posts 20 unanswered points in the first half, but inexplicably fell away when attacking spearhead Brett Stewart picked up an injury.
I thought at the time that it was an aberration for the Storm, But in the month that followed, failings in Melbourne’s defensive structure have been magnified.
Granted, this is turning out to be a roller-coaster competition with every team a winning chance of on any day or night. But I will be watching to see if Melbourne can rebuild their trademark brick wall or be forced to rely on the attacking geniuses in their ranks to score more points than the other mob on a weekly basis.
If they can’t, I am prepared to tip that Melbourne Storm will finish where they are now on the competition table – a very uncomfortable ninth, or worse.
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