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The Championships: 2014 Doncaster Mile full preview and tips

2012 winner of the Doncaster, More Joyous. (AAP Image/Paul Miller)
Expert
10th April, 2014
22
2009 Reads

The Doncaster Mile is the biggest race on the opening day of The Championships, worth a cool $3M. It always attracts a capacity field, but rarely one of such deep, deep quality.

To highlight how hard it will be to pick the winner, a horse like Dissident, whose age group has a magnificent record in the race, won a Group 1 at the track and distance two starts back, and is currently at $21.

With a feature race like this, let alone many other highlights on the day, The Championships is well on the way to delivering all that was promised and more.

1.Boban
Boban is the best miler in the country, undefeated this season over 1600m, and claiming three Group 1s in the process – the Epsom Handicap, Emirates Stakes and Chipping Norton Stakes.

Despite a stuttering start to this campaign, he graduated to weight-for-age winner once he got to his favoured mile, but then got way too far back in the George Ryder. He made good ground out wide that day, but wasn’t at his most comfortable on the slow track.

Wet form: Three starts on slow tracks, being beaten an average of six lengths. It’s not his favoured surface, and it will be tough for him to carry his deserved top weight if the track is too heavy.

2.My Kingdom of Fife
My Kingdom of Fife is Chris Waller’s comeback horse, the master trainer trying to coax his charge back to the winning circle after two-and-a-half years off the scene.

He’s just been ticking over so far in Group 1 weight-for-age races, but we need to see more before committing to him. If Waller can get him back to his best, look for him to be peaking in the Brisbane winter carnival over 2000m.

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Wet form: Won the Queen Elizabeth on the heavy in 2011, as well as the Hollindale Stakes later that campaign on the slow.

3.Streama
Streama appears to be racing a couple of lengths below her best, which has seen a few lengths off contending in her races this time around.

She is gradually improving though, and her George Ryder run was sound, but didn’t exactly have ‘next time winner’ written all over it, especially in light of carrying 56.5kgs and giving weight to a lot of progressive males in a $3M Doncaster Mile.

Wet form: Nine starts on the slow or heavy, and her last-start George Ryder sixth and a fourth in the Doncaster a year ago are the only times she’s missed a place. She’s well-credentialled, and did win her Oaks in soft going, among other stakes victories.

4.Sacred Falls
Sacred Falls is a dual Group 1 winner over 1600m, and returns as defending Doncaster champion, with every chance of holding onto the crown.

Despite not winning since that time, he has raced very consistently, perhaps lightly tapping on the door of victory, rather than bashing it down. His average losing margin since his Doncaster win has been about a length-and-a-half, but he’s never really threatened victory.

His George Ryder run was good, and he’ll enjoy some weight relief back to a handicap. This might be his time.

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Wet form: His Doncaster win as a three-year-old was on a heavy 10, plus he has a slow track win as a two-year-old in NZ. Any rain is in his favour.

5.Hawkspur
Hawkspur is another of the army of Chris Waller horses, and one whose place in the overall pecking order of good horses in this country is still very much up for debate.

He has the feel of the horse who will claim a big race, and his last start run in the Ranvet was possibly the best run of the day, eating up the ground from the tail in a very much on-pace dominated race. He was fourth to Silent Achiever and It’s a Dundeel that day, who have since run the quinella in last week’s BMW.

He’s never dropped back in distance before, but Waller did have Sacred Falls coming back of a 2000m run to win this last year, so he’s in good hands.

Wet form: He saw a few wet tracks as a maiden, but his best two runs on rain-affected ground have been his last two, both on slow tracks – a two-and-a-half-length win over future Group winner Spurtonic, and a three-length win in the Group 3 Rough Habit in Queensland.

6.Toydini
Toydini doesn’t appear particularly well-weighted as a non-Group 1 winner, but like Speediness below him, he pays a price for consistency at the top level. He is a dual Group 2 and dual Group 3 winner though, itching to take the next step.

His George Ryder fifth was a slashing Doncaster trial, and this feels like the sort of race he can contend in after going close in both the Epsom and Emirates last year. He’ll be meeting Boban better at the weights for both of those defeats.

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Wet form: Apart from his George Ryder run, a second in a two-year-old maiden on a slow track, plus two heavy track runs – a fourth in an Eagle Farm Sires Produce, and a fifth, beaten two lengths coming from last, in a Benchmark 85 as a three-year-old. He might be one where the stats don’t tell the whole story.

7.Speediness
Speediness is a six-year-old that gets better and better with each preparation. After previously being a Listed or Group 3 horse, he’s raced in five Group 1 races this season, to be beaten a combined seven lengths, and on three occasions was within half a length or less of claiming his maiden Group 1.

Earlier this campaign, he was second to Appearance in the Apollo Stakes at weight-for-age, when she was beating every gun horse in sight, and last time out he was all but home in the George Ryder before Gordon Lord Byron made his extraordinary run along the inside to claim him.

He’ll appreciate the drop back to handicap conditions more than most, and he’ll surely be there with a chance at some stage. But is he capable of beating them all?

Wet form: Three starts on slow tracks for his George Ryder second, a second in the Hawkesbury Guineas (beating Steps in Time into third), plus a Sale maiden win.

8.Mouro
Mouro is a consistent goer from the Tony McEvoy stable who invariably runs well in country cups and lower Group races.

He’s the sort of horse that might be a sneaky Doncaster chance down on the minimum, but isn’t kindly weighted, and horses that are, like Messene and Weary, easily took care of him in the Ajax Stakes last time out.

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Wet form: One start on a slow track for a second in a Caulfield open handicap in the spring.

9.Royal Descent
Royal Descent won four races as a three-year-old, which comprise her entire career winning record. The most memorable of these was, of course, her ten length ATC Oaks victory over Dear Demi on a bottomless track.

Her form as a four-year-old mare has varied between respectable to very good, but her Coolmore Classic run suggested she was closer to her next win than her last. Her fifth, coming from last in an on-pace dominated race (the first four home all sat in the first five in running), was as eye-catching a run as any all day.

She needs things to go her way, and can often find bad luck, but if the race pans out for her, she’s a legitimate threat.

Wet form: Her ten-length heavy track Oaks win is the obvious standout, as well as a couple of other handy runs.

10.Monton
Monton has been running in the Doncaster since before trainer Ron Quinton was born, and is a good, honest horse that has won a hell of a lot of money for connections and given them some great thrills along the way.

Like Mouro, he’s another who might be a place chance on the minimum, but couldn’t possibly beat the likes of Messene and Weary home, let alone some of the proven Group 1 animals.

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Wet form: He won a race on each of the slow and heavy back in 2010, but has never been close, in better races, on wet ground since.

11.Dear Demi
Dear Demi has quite an incredible Group 1 record, winning the Crown Oaks in her three-year-old year, and filling a place on a further seven occasions, in everything from the Champagne as a two-year-old to a Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes last spring.

She hasn’t raced over a mile since her three-year-old spring, where she ran third in the Flight Stakes and second in the Thousand Guineas. She knows how to respond after an average run, which she put in the Coolmore, and has often run a great race at big odds due to it.

Wet form: She has a heavy track win in a Listed race earlier in her career, but has raced inconsistently on wet tracks throughout her career. Sometimes she handles it, and sometimes not.

12.Fat Al
Fat Al drops 6kgs on his George Ryder run, but finishing nine lengths behind Speediness as he did, he’s going to need all of that and more to be competitive here.

Wet form: Apart from the George Ryder, his last win was on slow ground, with his only other exposure coming on debut in a Kembla Grange maiden, running seventh and being immediately spelled.

13.Slow Pace
Slow Pace is a French import trained by Kris Lees that caught the eye in his first start in Australia, coming from well back to run third in the Newcastle Newmarket after being well backed at odds.

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He’s being set for races like the Doomben Cup in Queensland later on in the year, but showed enough first-up to suggest he’s sharp and talented enough to contend in a race like this, especially with only 52.5kgs on his back.

Wet form: He won his maiden on debut on a slow track (his only 1600m start), and also won a Listed race in France on slow going over 2400m, so seems to handle it okay.

14.Hana’s Goal
Hana’s Goal, the Japanese import and Group 3 winner in her home country, didn’t fire a shot in the Coolmore Classic despite jumping in single figures, never coming into the race and beating only two runners home.

Her price will be five times what it was that day in a much tougher race, and it’s hard to make much of a case for her chances.

Wet form: Has raced almost exclusively on good tracks in her career, with only one start on dead ground outside for that.

15.Lidari
Lidari will be jumping at big odds on Saturday, but is the sort of horse that could inject some value into the trifecta or pop up if there is going to be a major blow-out.

He worked steadily on the slow in the George Ryder, and gets 7kgs weight relief dropping back to the handicap conditions. He won the Blamey Stakes at the distance, and has also been a close-up third to Fiorente at weight-for-age over 1600m, so his mile credentials are sound.

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Wet form: Very much a mixed bag, with all of it outside the George Ryder coming in France. Two slow track wins (a maiden and a Listed race over 2000m), but he also has one last on the heavy and one on the slow, being beaten a combined 43 lengths. Get the sense he’s better on top of the ground.

16.Dissident
Dissident finally delivered on his Group 1 promise and potential this campaign, stringing together victories in the Hobartville Stakes and Randwick Guineas, the first wins since his debut victory in January 2013.

He just battled away stepping up to 2000m in the Rosehill Guineas, but the drop back to a mile will work in his favour. He’s a tough horse to get past when in form, as the likes of El Roca and Atlante can attest, and with only 51.5kgs on his back, you can expect him to give a very good sight.

Wet form: He has a second to Eurozone on the slow, and won the Hobartville as well, but the consensus is he’d prefer to be on top of the ground.

17.Messene
Messene is the classic untapped horse ‘on the up’ coming into the Doncaster Mile, and will jump as the warm favourite off the back of seven consecutive wins leading into his biggest race.

He’s one of very few horses in the race that hasn’t been exposed to Group 1 racing, and team Hawkes have carefully plotted a path to this day in an attempt to ‘beat the handicapper’ as they put it.

His last start was his most impressive yet, bolting in the Ajax to put the writing on the wall. The second horse that day, Weary, franked the form with his own impressive win in the Doncaster Prelude last week. The fact that he’s being trained out of the hottest stable in the country doesn’t hurt his chances either.

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Wet form: He’s yet to see anything worse than a dead track, which might be a concern.

18.El Roca
El Roca has proven himself capable of mixing with the best, but has only won one race on Australian shores, when he was a dominant victor over Dissident upon resumption this campaign.

Since then, he’s taken on the older horses twice and his own age group once, finishing in the top three but being worried out of victory each time. Do we need to question his stomach for the fight, or has he just been beaten by better horses on the day?

He’s proven himself as Group 1 class, and will have a say down on the minimum, but should he really be half the odds of Dissident, who beat him in the Randwick Guineas over this track and distance?

Wet form: His last start George Ryder third was his first run on a wet track, and he proved himself adept in the conditions.

19.Weary
The late Doncaster horse on the scene for Chris Waller, Weary has been sensationally backed into second-favourite after his last start win in last week’s Prelude on a heavy track.

Beaten in a benchmark 95 at the start of his first prep in Australia, he’s improving with every run, but the question remains whether he can turn the tables on Messene from the Ajax. Weary was three lengths behind that horse on the day, yet meets him 1.5kgs worse at the weights for it.

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Wet form: The Waller grey is a serious ‘mudder’, his Doncaster Prelude win on the heavy making him two from two in those conditions.

20.Ninth Legion
Ninth Legion is an old-fashioned handicapper who is rewarded with the biggest drop in the weights from all those that contested the George Ryder.

He was always going to struggle to be in the finish in that race, but wasn’t disgraced, and first-up he was closing fast into third behind Terravista and El Roca in the Liverpool City Cup, and does get weight relief from the favoured three-year-old. He’s a fluker’s hope at odds.

Wet form: Outgraded on the slow in the George Ryder, his only other wet run was when beaten 8.5 lengths on the heavy when starting even money favourite after a second to Toydini in the Phar Lap.

21.Malavio (first emergency)
Malavio may not get a run in the race, and will probably run worse than mid-field if he does, but he has been running against the key Doncaster players this campaign.

He was two-and-a-bit lengths behind El Roca in the Liverpool, just over three lengths off Messene in the Ajax and battled away four lengths in arrears of Weary in the Prelude. It’s hard to see him turning the tables on any, let alone all, of them if he makes the field.

Wet form: His first stakes win was on slow ground, over Famous Seamus, and he’s also won another city race on the surface. He couldn’t go with Weary on the heavy last week.

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22.Gypsy Diamond (second emergency)
Gypsy Diamond has run well behind the likes of Sweet Idea, Thump, and Steps In Time this campaign, and is certainly a promising filly that showed good signs in the Melbourne spring too.

Her run in the Coolmore was sound, but not enough to suggest she’ll be a player here if she makes the field. She’s also accepted in the Carbine Club earlier in the day, a race that is more up her alley at this stage of her career.

Wet form: One slow start for a fast-finishing second in a Listed two-year-old race.

Selections: 1. Messene 2. Royal Descent 3. Dissident 4. Hawkspur

The Inglis Sires has also received a facelift and prizemoney bump, and is the first of the million-dollar races on The Championships opening day card.

While the race has often proven fertile ground for horses that have run in the Golden Slipper the week before, but this time around the first four in betting are from different lead-up races, and only three of the field are backing up from the rich juvenile scamper.

Believe Yourself put in the classic Sires trial in the Slipper, storming home for fourth from the tail of the field, proving her Sweet Embrace win, also coming from last, was no fluke.

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Peggy Jean just failed to catch Bring Me The Maid (third in the Slipper) in the Magic Night on heavy ground, coming from a long way back, but has every chance to be the first one home after bypassing the Slipper to be set for this.

Kumaon is another back-marker that put the writing on the wall last time out, closing fast to run second to Time For War in the Pago Pago. As the only leader in a race otherwise devoid of speed, Time For War will again be hard to gun down. The market suggests these two colts are the best chance of winning for the males.

Lucky Raquie ran pleasingly in the Reisling, with an eye to longer races, and two lengths behind Earthquake and Mossfun looks pretty good for this, especially as she made some ground on a day where a leader’s bias was prevalent.

Unencumbered and Cornrow are talented horses that didn’t run well on the heavy in the Slipper. Go on their Todman Stakes runs two back if you like them. If they can strike better conditions, they’ll be value chances.

Zululand is bringing another formline altogether, an emphatic winner of the VRC Sires at Flemington for David Hayes. One of only two horses in the field to have tackled 1400m, and the only one to have won at it, his experience must be respected.

The fillies have been clearly dominant this two-year-old season, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue here.

Selections: 1. Believe Yourself 2. Peggy Jean 3. Lucky Raquie 4. Time For War

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