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AFL finals berths are taking shape

15th April, 2014
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15th April, 2014
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After just four rounds of the AFL season, the ladder is taking shape and the contenders and pretenders for the finals are clearer by the week. Depending on who you are, however, it either makes for happy reading or bad news.

Brisbane is at rock bottom, Carlton is in a crisis and breaking from within, Richmond seems destined to miss finals and Hawthorn and Geelong just keep rolling on.

After Round 1 in recent history, the ladder positions may change, but the teams inside the top eight usually stay the same.

After just four rounds, the same logic can be applied. The only change that seems likely is either Collingwood or Sydney will replace GWS. However, based on form, Sydney is no certainty despite their premiership favouritism at the start of the season.

Sitting 1-3, all is not right for the red and white.

Lance Franklin came with a huge price tag and expectations but has failed to live up to the billing. Their midfield is coasting and not playing ‘Sydney football’, while simple errors are costing them dearly.

In a world of trouble, Brisbane is a major concern for the AFL.

After losing five key youngsters last year, they are now faced with more injury trouble, with Daniel Rich out for the season, Matthew Leuenberger facing an extended period on the sidelines and Pearce Hanley out for a month.

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In a rugby-dominated state, and facing the rise of the Gold Coast Suns, Brisbane are facing a major identity crisis. If the trend doesn’t reverse, the AFL will be left with a major headache at the end of the season.

As for Carlton, their 0-4 start to the season is their worst since 1989 when they went 0-5.

With tough games to come against Western Bulldogs, West Coast and Collingwood, there is a real possibility that they could be 0-7.

Being one of the powerhouse clubs of the competition with prime time TV slots and a large supporter base, the AFL needs Carlton performing.

Infighting among power-brokers is destabilising the club, with Bruce Mathieson calling for the head of president Stephen Kernahan and CEO Greg Swann following the loss to Melbourne.

The next month will be crucial for all involved at Carlton.

At the start of the season, Richmond was expected to make finals.

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Their recent trend of improvement was to see them challenge for a top-four position after missing out last year by just two points. Yet after just four rounds, the chances of Richmond making finals seem all but gone.

Friday night’s loss to Collingwood was worse than the scoreboard reflected, with seven goals coming in the final quarter – they kicked just three until three-quarter time.

They look slow and are lacking forward line structure and cohesion.

On the other hand Port Adelaide was at rock bottom just two years ago. But in the space of 18 months, they have over 50,000 members, are the number one team in South Australia and are a contender for the premiership.

Despite a tough draw ahead, with West Coast, Geelong and Fremantle in three of their next four matches, Port are all but assured of a finals birth and will be pushing for a top-four position.

They have three match-winners in attack through Jay Schulz, Justin Westhoff and Chad Wingard. Their midfield is powerful and their defence is underrated.

After Round 1, many were questioning whether North Melbourne were contenders or pretenders. After three straight wins, including victories against Port Adelaide and Sydney at the SCG, North is where many expected them to be.

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After finishing 10th last year and gaining a favourable draw under the AFL’s new fixture structuring, North can set up their season if they can claim at least one win against Collingwood or Fremantle.

The form of Cunnington, Daniel Wells, Nick Dal Santo, Sam Gibson and Levi Greenwood has covered the losses of Jack Zeibell and Andrew Swallow and has added needed depth for North to become a top four contender.

At the top, it looks as though Geelong and Hawthorn are the teams to beat.

Both showed why on Saturday, with Geelong holding West Coast goalless after quarter time and Hawthorn dismantling Gold Coast to the tune of 99 points.

Easter Monday will see both resume hostility, with Geelong getting the chance to extract revenge after the preliminary final loss last year.

After just four rounds, there is an inevitability that not much will change come Round 23.

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