If you want to be competitive in the NRL in 2014 you must cheat. At the risk of repeating myself, it has become obvious that an increasing number of teams, far from being worried about conceding penalties, are actually seeing them as a good mechanism to buy time so their defence can organise.
The likes of Wayne Bennett, Peter Sterling and Darren Lockyer have all echoed this opinion. Last Saturday another coach joined the chorus. Following his teams insipid performance against the Newcastle Knights, Canberra coach Ricky Stuart asserted that the Novocastrians had deliberately given away penalties when his team was threatening their try line.
Stuart stated that Newcastle had done it to disrupt the Raiders rhythm.
“Every time we got momentum they’d give a penalty away in their 10 or 20-metre zone, which makes it frustrating for us,” Stuart said. He believes it is wrecking the spectacle of the game.
“People laying in the ruck and wrestling, it’s the shitty tactics on the ground which make it a messy, ugly game of footy. It’s a common trend in the game today and teams are doing it, we may as well start doing it too.”
Ricky is spot on. A coach would be failing in their job if they didn’t instruct their players to spoil their opposition as much as possible. Quite simply, a team that doesn’t will not be in contention to win the 2014 premiership.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the referees will not use the sin bin to try and stamp out this negative and ugly play. As at the end of Round 6 there have been 716 penalties awarded by the referees but only two of them – 0.28 per cent – have been deemed to be professional fouls.
It seems that the overwhelming majority of offences committed by players are deemed by referees as accidental or simply misdemeanours.
We’ve seen for the last two seasons the grand finals fought out between sides that regularly topped the penalty counts. In 2012 The Bulldogs were the worst offenders in the NRL, with The Storm very bad as well.
Last year The Roosters and Manly were streets ahead of the other sides when it came to conceding penalties. But there they were in the decider.
It seems cheats have definitely prospered. If you look at the below chart you can see that five of the most penalised sides in 2013 were rewarded with a top eight finish. Those five included the top four, both grand finalists and the eventual premier.
| PENALTIES CONCEDED 2013 TO LADDER POSITION | |||
| Team | Penalties conceded 2013 | 2013 ladder position | |
| 1 | SYDNEY ROOSTERS | 178 | 1ST |
| 2 | MANLY | 163 | 4TH |
| 3 | PARRAMATTA | 155 | 16TH |
| 4 | WESTS TIGERS | 154 | 15TH |
| 5 | CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN | 146 | 6TH |
| 6 | GOLD COAST | 146 | 9TH |
| 7 | MELBOURNE | 134 | 3RD |
| 8 | SOUTH SYDNEY | 132 | 2ND |
| 9 | CANBERRA | 131 | 13TH |
| 10 | NORTH QUEENSLAND | 130 | 8TH |
| 11 | BRISBANE | 130 | 12TH |
| 12 | PENRITH | 129 | 10TH |
| 13 | WARRIORS | 125 | 11TH |
| 14 | ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA | 125 | 14TH |
| 15 | NEWCASTLE | 125 | 7TH |
| 16 | CRONULLA | 117 | 5TH |
So it should come as no surprise that many of the other teams have caught on and are doing exactly the same thing. Have a look at this year’s chart and you’ll see that six of the sides currently in the top eight are numbered among the eight worst offenders when it comes to conceding penalties this year. So the problem is growing. More cheats are prospering.
| PENALTIES CONCEDED 2014 TO LADDER POSITION | |||
| Team | Penalties Conceded 2014 | 2014 ladder position | |
| 1 | GOLD COAST | 53 | 1ST |
| 2 | SYDNEY ROOSTERS | 52 | 11TH |
| 3 | WESTS TIGERS | 52 | 3RD |
| 4 | NEWCASTLE | 51 | 13TH |
| 5 | PARRAMATTA | 50 | 5TH |
| 6 | SOUTH SYDNEY | 48 | 7TH |
| 7 | MELBOURNE | 48 | 6TH |
| 8 | CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN | 45 | 2ND |
| 9 | NORTH QUEENSLAND | 42 | 12TH |
| 10 | PENRITH | 42 | 10TH |
| 11 | WARRIORS | 41 | 15TH |
| 12 | ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA | 41 | 9TH |
| 13 | CRONULLA | 39 | 16TH |
| 14 | MANLY | 39 | 4TH |
| 15 | BRISBANE | 37 | 8TH |
| 16 | CANBERRA | 36 | 14TH |
Case in point is The Gold Coast Titans. Last season The Titans just missed out on the finals. With a points differential of minus one a game it is understandable how they missed the final 8. After all, the Roosters finished the home-and-away season on top of the ladder averaging a points differential of +13 a game and the rest of the top four – Souths, Melbourne and Manly – all had a points differentials of +9 a game.
But now at the end of Round 6 the Titans are alone at the top of the NRL table with exactly the same -1 points differential a game.
So what are they doing differently that has gotten them to the top of the table? Most obviously they have won all but one match. However, they have only won a single game by more than six points – and that was by 12 points over a Green Machine that would have more aptly been dressed in beige.
Last season in attack the Titans scored an average of 21 points a game. This year that has dropped to 18 points a game. Their line breaks have dropped from 4.4 a game in 2013 to just 2.5 a game in 2014. So clearly their scoring has gone backwards.
So it must be their defence. They have gone from conceding 21.5 points a game in 2013 to only 18.5 a game this season. Take the 30-point flogging at the hands of the reborn Wests Tigers out and their points conceded average is only 16.
However, in 2014 they are making three more errors, missing one more tackle and conceding two more offloads a game than they were in 2013. None of those things help prevent tries and it can be strongly argued that they help concede them. So why is their defence so improved?
The reason is they are gaining advantage from the penalties they concede when defending. The Gold Coast are conceding nearly three extra penalties a game on average more than they did last year. They give away a massive average of 8.8 penalties a game. The only penalty count they haven’t lost this year was in their scrappy six point win over Cronulla in Round 1.
The Titans may be leading the charge but they are in very good company. Last season the average penalties conceded per side a game was 6.5. This season that average has increased to 7.5. In 2013 one side – the Roosters – averaged over eight penalties conceded a game. This season there are seven teams averaging over that number and all but one of those sides is in the top eight.
In fact there are only two sides whose average penalties conceded have gone down from 2013: Brisbane, who are just in the eight, and Canberra who sit third last although they are yet to lose a penalty count. They receive 9.5 penalties a game on average – for all the good it does them…
If you still need more evidence that being awarded a penalty isn’t really much of a bonus for a side, then consider the below chart. It shows that of the eight sides that received the most penalties on average in 2013 only three of them – the Cowboys, Bulldogs and Sharks – actually made the finals.
| PENALTIES RECEIVED 2013 TO LADDER POSITION | |||
| Team | Penalties received 2013 | 2013 ladder position | |
| 1 | Gold Coast | 162 | 9TH |
| 2 | Cronulla | 149 | 5TH |
| 3 | North Queensland | 149 | 8TH |
| 4 | St George Illawarra | 147 | 14TH |
| 5 | Brisbane | 146 | 12TH |
| 6 | Penrith | 143 | 10TH |
| 7 | Canterbury Bankstown | 142 | 6TH |
| 8 | Wests Tigers | 137 | 15TH |
| 9 | Manly | 137 | 4TH |
| 10 | Canberra | 136 | 13TH |
| 11 | Parramatta | 135 | 16TH |
| 12 | Newcastle | 134 | 7TH |
| 13 | Melbourne | 130 | 3RD |
| 14 | Sydney Roosters | 129 | 1ST |
| 15 | South Sydney | 125 | 2ND |
| 16 | Warriors | 119 | 11TH |
So Ricky Stuart is spot on when he says that his team needs to start deliberately spoiling their oppositions attack. The stats clearly show that you are unlikely to be competitive if you don’t. In fact Stuart is behind the curve.
That stats are so damning that referees’ boss Tony Archer and NRL CEO David Smith either must know it is happening and have decided they are ok with it, or they aren’t paying attention to the game they are supposed to be running.
In any event, it looks like we are in for a sensational season of flops, hands in the ruck, double tackles, offside play and interference.
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