Day 1 of The Championships was a roaring success. With better weather forecast and the feature race of the Sydney autumn taking place on day two, we should be in for a spectacular encore.
We had a look at the $4-million Queen Elizabeth yesterday, but there are three other one million dollar races that are worthy Group 1s in their own right.
Sydney Cup Preview
The Sydney Cup has often had what we might call a compromised quality. It is a race for those who could never contend in a Melbourne Cup and perhaps never hope to race in one.
You have to go back to grand old County Tyrone in 2006 to find a winner that had previously won a Group 1, and even further back to Makybe Diva to find a horse than won one subsequently.
The doubling of prizemoney (last year’s race was worth $500,000) is a fantastic place to start. The real cream isn’t racing, as seen by the weights being risen 2 kilograms to have a top weight of 58 kilograms, but it should still be a good old-fashioned, competitive staying handicap.
The Offer is the short-priced favourite, thanks to winning his last two key lead-up races and the fact that he keeps bolting in on heavy tracks. His last three runs on a bottomless surface, all in the last six months, have seen three black type victories with an average winning margin of three lengths.
Who Shot Thebarman has been showing serious staying potential, with a series of strong wins across the Tasman. He now rises both in weight and class, but enters the race as the only other last start winner, and won’t be taken lightly with the form the Kiwi’s have been showing across the carnival.
Voleuse de Coeurs has the unenviable task of carrying top weight as a mare, but has been running respectably in the best weight-for-age races, and will appreciate the drop in class.
Brigantin finished alongside her in the BMW and meets her 5.5 kilograms better for the experience. As a Waller runner at odds, he’s more than capable of causing an upset.
Angola and Let’s Make Adeal are also coming from the BMW. The former will struggle to make an impact, but the latter might be a sneaky chance, as she’s been tracking along okay for a 3200-metre handicap.
Epingle brings Tasmanian staying form into the mix, winner of the Hobart and Launceston Cups. She attacked the line in the Epona after a freshen up and drop in distance, and is sure to make her presence felt.
Sertorius hasn’t threatened the winners stall since his slashing first up run in the Futurity Stakes behind Moment of Change, but has still been ticking over nicely despite having a few things against. Really wet tracks aren’t his go, and he can improve vastly on a better surface, but will need to in order to turn the tables on The Offer.
Gonodokoro, Opinion, Hippopus, Tremec, Desery Jeuney and Like a Carousel are others who have finished behind The Offer, some of them meeting him worse at the weights, and will need to find their best form to make an impact.
The x-factor in the race is represented by Tupac Amaru, backing up after a fighting second to Criterion in the ATC Derby last Saturday. Kerrin McEvoy took off on him mid-race, circling the field and almost stealing the race. It was the ride of a jockey who knew he was on a tough, genuine stayer.
The three-year-old shouldn’t be discounted, even if he is awfully weighted against the older, seasoned stayers.
Selections: 1. The Offer 2. Tupac Amaru 3. Let’s Make Adeal 4. Sertorius
Queen of the Turf Preview
Catkins holds her rightful place at the top of the market in the race that will determine which mare will lay claim to being the best of the autumn over a mile trip.
She’s won three of her four races this campaign, running a game third with top weight in the Coolmore at her other start. She’s had “Group 1 winner” written all over her ever since the Myer Classic on Derby Day in spring, and nothing we’ve seen since should have changed any minds.
Stablemate Red Tracer has been the mare to beat in these sort of races for a year or more, but is coming off her worst run in all that time, a fading tenth in the George Ryder when jumping as favourite. Her previous two runs suggested she was going as well as ever, so can be forgiven for that run.
Solicit and Gypsy Diamond are three-year-old filles that met in the VRC Oaks last November, and have weaved different paths to be right in the market for this race.
Solicit cleaned up the early fillies races in Victoria, and then tried to defy them all in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000 metres, but just found one too good on the day. She beat the rest of the field by five lengths and will be tough and strong dropping back to a mile.
Gypsy Diamond is better with the cut out of the ground, and after having run well in the Sydney fillies races, and not being disgraced in the Coolmore, she loved finding a heavy track to claim an overdue but deserved victory.
Streama has been a gun mare, but doesn’t appear to be going well enough to win. The breeding barn might be calling her. Sharnee Rose might have been in the place reckonings, but has been scratched.
Viadana and Recite are another couple of New Zealand Group 1 winners trying to bring some Australian dollars back home. It’s hard to line-up their form, but the Kiwi’s are a threat in whatever they’re contesting at the moment.
Bonaria is an honest Victorian mare that isn’t quite up to Group 1 level, while Diamond Drille is a lightly-raced and improving four-year-old from the Gai Waterhouse stable that can defy the odds, but will struggle to win.
Selections: 1.Catkins 2.Red Tracer 3.Solicit 4.Gypsy Diamond
Australian Oaks Preview
Lucia Valentina is the hot market-elect for the Oaks after her impressive Vinery Stud Stakes win, and if Solicit takes out the Queen of the Turf the race earlier, she’ll be even shorter still when they jump.
With the Victorian filly out, the closest horse behind her from last start was six lengths away, a margin that was probably flattering given the heavy track, but no less dominant for it. She’s the obvious pick, and might just be the right one.
Rising Romance claimed the scalp of Lucia Valentina back in New Zealand in January, but couldn’t go with her on the heavy last time out. Any drying of the track should help swing the margin back in her favour.
Zanbagh fits a similar profile to Rising Romance, and finished alongside her behind Lucia Valentina. A short head off already being an Oaks winner, we know the step up to 2400 metres won’t be a problem, and she is having a very good prep. Connections will be praying for sunshine to give her every chance.
Suavito is another that worked home well in the Vinery Stud, and could spring a surprise on a dryer track having previously been competitive with Solicit down in Melbourne.
Forever Loved put in a strong on-pace effort at big odds in the same race, and will no doubt be trained to do so again.
Miss Mossman is the New Zealand Oaks winner who couldn’t possibly be as bad as she showed in the Vinery, over-racing and later found to have respiratory problems. If she’s fit and well, she can run a race at a price. Interspersed worked into the same race when it was all over. Both will have blinkers removed for the first time.
Miss Selby is yet another Kiwi making the leap across the Tasman, they seem to be following each other like sheep. She and Miss Mossman have met twice for one victory each, running the quinella both times. One shouldn’t be half the price of the other.
Missvonn was the first home from the Adrian Knox to be backing up into the Oaks, but was yet another to finish in the ruck of the Vinery Stud. She won’t be without a chance.
Amanpour might be a roughie at big odds to keep an eye on if the track improves. Jim Cassidy might just try and bring out one of his front-running specials. The horse will be tough enough, but probably not good enough for it to work, but you never know with Gai Waterhouse on these big days.
Casino Dancer, Role Model, Cast In Stone, Cuban Star and Blue Eyes will be friendless in the betting, and will need to make quantum leaps in improvement to trouble the place-getters.
Selections: 1. Lucia Valentina 2. Zanbagh 3. Suavito 4. Miss Mossman
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