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It took the Waratahs 28 seconds on my count (Greg Martin said 31) to score their first try against the Bulls at Allianz Stadium on Saturday night. That was their last try for a match that was then dominated by penalty goals.
The Waratahs eventually won the match 19-12.
The try scorer was, of course, Israel Folau. The Waratahs put together some slick passing and running after winning the kick-off. Adam Ashley-Cooper made a bust and Folau loped through in support to convert the break into a try.
Thanks to his AFL training, Folau is very good under the high ball. He has a decent enough right foot kick, again thanks to his AFL training. He can smash over opponents like, in Peter FitzSimons’ memorable phrase, ‘a 21st-century Jonah Lomu.’
But his best attribute, for the Waratahs and the Wallabies, is the way he can read break-out plays to add value in points to breaks made by other players.
After this fast start, the Waratahs found it difficult to penetrate the tough Bulls defence enough to score tries. One of the reasons for this is that they tried to counter the Bulls outside-in-defensive system by throwing long, lobbed passes to wingers standing almost on the sideline.
The point of the lobbed pass is understandable. The Waratahs were trying to go over the top of the Bulls defensive pattern that had the winger leaving the touchline unmarked to put pressure on the centres and fullback coming into the line.
The best way to beat this sort of closed-in defensive line is to use quick hands to move the ball to the unmarked winger, or another big runner on the sideline. Keiran Read does this well for the Crusaders.
It is a system the Waratahs need to think about as they continue with their splendid tactic of trying to beat the opposition with a ball-in-hand game.
The critical aspect here is that just shovelling the ball across the field (as the Crusaders were doing earlier in the season) is a recipe for failure. Teams like the Waratahs and the Crusaders who play a ball-in-hand game from inside their own half must try to buckle the line in each sequence.
This stops the opposition defence from drifting. And it takes defenders out of the defensive line.
Then when you get numbers, either in the mid-field (as the Waratahs did with Kurtley Beale’s breaks) or out wide, quick hands give you the overlap.
A number of Roarers on Sunday posted comments expressing their disappointment with the Waratahs not going on and monstering the Bulls after the quick try. What they need to remember is that the Waratahs had lost eight straight matches against the Bulls, including three losses in Sydney.
The Bulls play to a method that makes them difficult for the Waratahs, and other teams, to beat easily. The Bulls, for instance, make the least number of passes in a match – around the 90 mark. The Waratahs are the second-highest pass makers, with around 160 passes per game.
One of the consequences of the Bulls method is that they don’t allow oppositions many turnovers which in turn leads to broken play and a non-existent defensive line. The Waratahs scored their only try from a turnover after the kick-off.
Because they aren’t trying to play any rugby inside their own half, rather like the Sharks and the Brumbies (the Jake White connection?), they usually don’t give away too many penalties. On Saturday night, the Waratahs were dominant enough in terms of field position for Bernard Foley to kick four and miss a couple of others.
The attacking pressure the Bulls apply tends to come from high kicks. This tactic gave the Bulls three Super Rugby titles in four years. But without the master chaser and retriever Bryan Habana, the tactic tends to hand the ball back to the opposition.
My feeling about the game is that it was a good, tough win for the Waratahs. They defeated a team and more especially they defeated a negative style of play that previous Waratahs sides, even very good ones, just could not deal with.
Also, the win tended to help reinforce Allianz Stadium as the Waratahs’ fortress.
The win also entrenches the Waratahs with 24 points in the top six at the end of Week 10.
The Western Force had the chance of going to the top of the Australian Conference with a win over the Rebels. Their five-match winning streak came to an end when they went down to Rebels 22-16, picking up one bonus point, which gives them 23 points on the table.
Like the Waratahs, the Rebels are turning AAMI Park into something of a fortress, with wins there in six of their last seven home matches. But both sides struggled to show much more than intensity and hard graft.
This match followed the Hurricanes-Blues contest and the pace, skill, power and flair of the two New Zealand teams was at a much higher level than that of the two Australian sides.
The table right now, though, is interesting from an Australian perspective with all the top six teams having played eight matches.
Sharks 31 competition points, Brumbies 25, Chiefs 25, Waratahs 24, Force 23, Crusaders 22.
The Hurricanes are next on 21, the Highlanders (7 matches) 19, Bulls (9 matches) 19, Lions (9 matches) 16, and the Blues, Reds and Rebels are on 16.
In theory these last six teams have a chance to make the top six. It is extremely hard, though, to see the teams on 16 points getting up.
The two South African sides have played an extra match and they will struggle, although the Bulls after their match against the Force next weekend at Perth (a home match for them?) will have completed their overseas matches.
The Hurricanes and the Highlanders stand the best chance, at this stage of the tournament, of making a play for a top-six position. In my view, the most vulnerable side in the top in a really bunched up points table (aside from the Sharks who are yet to play in Australia or New Zealand) are the Force.
So we have some intriguing and probably influential matches next weekend with the Blues-Waratahs match leading off. The Blues are much better at Eden Park than they are away, where they have lost 12 on the road in succession.
On paper, the Blues have a good side. It is stacked with All Blacks. Graham Henry is one of the assistant coaches.
But is Sir John Kirwan taking any notice of him? And is Kirwan the right coach for the Blues? Certainly they are under-performing and he is having trouble selecting his best, winning side.
The Brumbies-Chiefs at Canberra could be easier than it seems on paper for the home side. The Chiefs are beginning to realise just how good Aaron Cruden is.
They never looked like scoring a length of the field try on time against the Crusaders (as they did twice in South Africa to snatch four-try draws) when Cruden, a devastating runner, was playing for them.
They did force a 50-metre penalty which was missed. But without Cruden, they lacked fluidity in moving into attack and penetration when they finally got an attack launched.
The Sharks play their last home match against the Highlanders who have had a bye. The Sharks will be too solid all over the park for the Highlanders. This is a match, though, that the Highlanders need to win much more than the Sharks.
For the Highlanders to have any aspirations for the top six, they need to get competition points in South Africa and Australia.
The Hurricanes-Reds match at Wellington shapes up as an important context for both these teams. The Reds can actually get level with the Hurricanes with a four-try decisive victory. Whether they can do this away from Suncorp, and in their current poor form, is the key point.
The Bulls can also do their hopes of a top-six position a world of good if they knock over the Force in Perth. A win would take the Bulls level with the Force. A bonus-point win would put them one point ahead.
As I suggested earlier, the Bulls will get a lot of support from ex-pat South Africans at the ground. They also have the tough, smashing style of play that Australian sides find hard to counter.
As they say about big sporting occasions, there is ‘everything to play for’ – which could be the motto for the wonderful Super Rugby tournament since it started in 1996.