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Are the Storm a spent force?

20th April, 2014
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Craig Bellamy is the king of predictable, reliable rugby league - and unearthing new or recycled talent. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
20th April, 2014
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I’ve got Melbourne Storm finishing outside of the top four now. I’m not going to suggest they won’t make the finals, but I’m convinced they’re not going to win the premiership.

Their 24-22 loss to Canberra yesterday did it for me. There was controversy about a try that wasn’t awarded to Storm winger Sisa Waqa, which surely would have wrapped up a win for them had it been given, but it seems every team is getting bad calls this season.

It wasn’t long ago that the Storm wouldn’t have to worry about calls like that affecting their results. They were good enough to almost always cover for things they couldn’t control going against them.

But no longer.

The Storm have, for a long time, been a team that started the season strongly, competed strongly throughout it – except, perhaps, for a few weeks during the representative season, when their stocks were stretched – and went right on with the job deep into the finals.

But last season they didn’t go on with it, going straight out of the finals with back-to-back losses to South Sydney and Newcastle, and maybe that was more of a sign of things to come than was suggested.

Or maybe they simply didn’t have a good finals series and what is happening to them this season comes down to key factors that have emerged since, notably the speeding up of the game that has prevented them from dominating in the ruck like they used to, and the departure of Gareth Widdop.

It’s not wrist-slashing time. When you have a look at the competition table you’ll see the Storm in eighth place, with a win-loss record of four-three and only two points from the competition lead.

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But you don’t have to go much deeper than that to see the big problem that has emerged for them. Their once excellent defence is now leaking way too many points.

The Storm have scored 157 points in their seven games at an average of 22.4 per game, which is the third-highest in the competition. That doesn’t compare badly with their regular-season average of 24.12 in 2012, when they went on to win the premiership, and their 24.54 last season.

But they have conceded 175 points at an average of 25, which is the second-worst in the competition. The hapless Warriors are only fractionally worse. In 2012, the Storm conceded at an average of 15.04 and last season it was 15.54.

When your defence is great, you are able to attack without feeling the pressure of having to force things. And then there is the reverse.

This just puts enormous pressure on the Storm’s “big three” – fullback Billy Slater, halfback Cooper Cronk and hooker Cameron Smith – to come up with even more big plays.

Slater, Cronk and Smith each did very well against the Raiders yesterday, but in the end it still wasn’t enough.

The increased ruck speed has meant the Storm haven’t been able to control the pace of the game, which was one of their greatest – if not their greatest – strengths. They may be able to adapt better as the season wears on, but they’re not showing any signs of that yet.

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And while the presence of Slater, Cronk and Smith meant five-eighth Widdop couldn’t be the dominant player at the Storm that he is now at St George Illawarra, he was still very important.

We’re now finding out just how important he was.

It’s been a weird season so far for the Storm. They won their first three games, but could have easily lost the first two of those. The first, against Manly, they were behind 20-4 at halftime.

The second, against Penrith, was another close one. The Panthers had a chance to win the game at full-time with a penalty shot that was unsuccessful.

The Storm beat Newcastle in Round 3 in Melbourne and were hammered 40-12 by the Bulldogs the next week.

In another close match, the Storm were then the victims of a shocking strip call that led to a match-winning penalty goal for Gold Coast.

Next came the great escape to beat St George Illawarra, when replays showed the referee should have blown full-time rather than allow the last play. Then Canberra got them with a late try.

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The problem with the poor defence and the weekly struggle to win that the Storm is facing at the moment is that they lose some of that aura about them. Teams will always respect them, but they won’t fear them as in years past.

And that will just make it harder again for them to win.

I notice the bookmakers have the Storm as fourth or fifth favourites to win the premiership now. They are still keeping them safe, at single-figure odds of about $9, which is what you would expect given the Storm’s results in recent years.

They are being rated on reputation more than anything.

If all of the teams were being rated purely on this season’s form, with no account for recent history, they would obviously be at longer odds.

There may still be hints of greatness, but this season is going to be a lot more difficult for the Storm than most people imagined.

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