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The Highlanders host the Lions at Forsyth Barr Stadium, in Dunedin tonight. Join The Roar for live scores and coverage from 5:40pm AEDT.
We have reached the witching hour of Super Rugby. With six or seven games left to play in the season, it’s the time of year for teams in the mid-section of the table to start using their spells and magic tricks to claw their way out of the competition graveyard.
This year, the Lions have won one of three games against New Zealand teams. They aim to even out their record today. The Highlanders, on the other hand, lost one from three against South African teams, the loss coming in last week’s defeat to the Stormers in Newlands.
A Lions win will pull them ahead of the Rebels, this game gives the Highlanders a real chance to hit second place for the New Zealand conference. If the Highlanders score a bonus point win, they surpass the Hurricanes. They may also jump over the Cantabrians, if the Reds prevent the Crusaders from getting a bonus point win.
The Lions won three of last five versus the Highlanders
The latest Lions triumph was their last contest in the demolished Carisbrook, 2011. Today, the Highlanders will be looking to demolish the Lions their new stadium. Bookies tend to support them with over five to one odds for the Highlanders to win.
Boshoff to overtake Sopoaga’s tally
With 127 points, Sopoaga is the second highest point scorer in Super Rugby, behind Beauden Barrett. His flyhalf counterpart, Boshoff has scored 124 so far. Because Sopoaga’s injured ankle will stop his point scoring tally for at least three weeks, Boshoff’s magic boot will likely add another around 12 points to his tally and move him to second place.
Captains versus Captain
This is the pair to watch. Veteran and co-captain Nasi Manu is 112kg, has delivered 105 tackles, 179 metres, 63 carries, 10 lineout wins, and eight defenders beaten.
The Lions’ captain is 97kg Warren Whiteley. His Super Rugby career spans a mere nine games. So far he has delivered 114 tackes, 202 metres, 58 carries, 32 lineout wins, and nine defenders beaten. Whiteley has a good opportunity to outmatch the veteran.
Aaron Smith versus Francois de Klerk
Both Smith and de Klerk are among the worst tacklers for their team. But they also deliver the most metres. Expect spaces in the middle to be exploited by both.
‘Set-In pieces’
At 82.8%, the Highlanders have the fifth worst scrum in the competition – just ahead of the Waratahs. The Lions have the best scrum, with a 92% success rate.
But they are third last for lineouts. Highlanders are ninth place. With a starting pack that is over 70kg heavier, a back five that is 10cm taller than the Lions, the team from Otago needs to conjure some set piece sorcery.
To fail in this match would be embarrassing for them. More importantly, they can give up any hope to claw up the ladder.
The field
The weather forecast is dry because the stadium is covered. Temperature forecast is 10 degrees. The referee is the up-and-coming Angus Gardner, who I believe is shaping to be one of the best officials – though I hope I haven’t jinxed him.
Prediction: The Lions will win the kicking contest. The Highlanders, average twice the number of clean breaks of the Lions, will win the running contest. Penalty kicks give you three points. Tries gives you seven. The winner should be quite easy to predict.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.