Football is often described as a brutal pastime. It’s a truism always particularly apparent at this moment in every season.
About a third of the way through the fixture and the strident gains made by young players by virtue of their offseason training regimes starts to fray at the edges. Weight is stripped off. The brand new physique that so impressed us in the NAB Cup has been whittled back.
The aerobic rigours of the sport are laid bare as the post-bye grind clicks into gear. All of a sudden the players look sinewy again, their faces gaunt, their halftime departure from the arena more likely a trudge than a spirited jog.
The relatively soft early runs enjoyed by clubs like the Suns, St Kilda and to a slightly lesser extent West Coast put campaigns into sharp focus.
So just how good are these rising Gold Coasters?
The next six weeks will tell us. They confront Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, Collingwood, and travel to Perth and Adelaide for games against the Eagles and the Crows respectively. Win half of those and take what they should out of the remaining third of their games and they might even snag a spot in the four. Lose most, and they could well miss out on finals altogether.
The Eagles monstered two of their first three opponents. It was enough to make plenty of us go early and nominate West Coast as a possible contender – myself included. Now they’re totally unpredictable mid-ladder talent with a negative ledger who make submitting the weekly tips a bloody nightmare.
As for lowly St Kilda, a surprising three from a possible five including what we thought was a genuine scalp in Essendon seems a long time gone. Ever since losing one they should have probably taken against the Lions in New Zealand, their list has been increasingly hobbled. They now hang by a two-weave thread comprised first year players and a smattering of tiring veterans. We really can only wonder from where the Sainters’ next win might emerge.
It’s hard to see Port Adelaide sliding too far, if at all, and Sydney’s irrepressible form should see them climb ever closer to a top two spot.
But what of the victim of last night’s 110 point hammering?
Does one result incite panic at Sleepy Hollow?
Probably not. But they’ve been there or thereabouts for a decade, more or less. Perhaps the time has finally come where the inevitable cyclical downturn kicks in. There’s been agelessness in play for a while at Geelong. Time always wins eventually. If it has, we’ll know soon enough.
The Cats have the benefit of a cosy run for the next few months. Start dropping the winnables and any discussion of the Cats will quickly focus on the glory they achieved rather than the damage they might inflict.
Keep a close and critical eye on the Hawks, too.
It’s tough enough losing Rioli, Lake, Roughead, Gibson and Mitchell all at once. But losing your coach adds an intriguing layer to the doom. Hawthorn’s much vaunted depth will be severely tested. They’ll beat the Giants this week, but all of a sudden the games to follow against the Eagles, North, Suns, and Carlton have a decidedly 50/50 feel. Same goes for Collingwood whose immediate future is an evenly balanced concoction of eminently achievable victories and challenging blockbusters. But given the quality of those waiting on the rungs immediately below they wouldn’t want to slip over too often.
This brings us to the clubs who’ve broken even over the course of a tough run and now have their chance to move.
Fremantle is an obvious nominee here. They have the Dogs, Crows, Richmond and the Lions over the next month. They really should nab all four. Who’d have placed the Dockers a possible thirteen and five after they were rock’n’rolled by North Melbourne a few weeks back? Things fall as they should and Freo will be back where they probably belong before we can blink.
And while on matters North Melbourne, their toughest on-paper assignment over the next month is an away game against West Coast this weekend. They’ve won at Subiaco already this season. Watch Kangaroo stocks soar if they snag another on Sunday evening.
It all adds up to an enthrallingly tight end to the year.
But which club will blink first? When will we see the next big boilover?
Melbourne’s shackle-breaker over the Crows in Adelaide was a surprise. So too St Kilda’s win over the Bombers. In hindsight, though, it’s pretty easy to dilute both. Really the only proper David over Goliath effort we’ve had thus far was the second game of the year when the Giants rode on the back of a storm to upstage the fancied Swans.
The Suns versus Hawks clash at Metricon in a few weeks has the potential to raise eyebrows, but if the Suns at near enough to full strength were to mow down an understaffed Hawthorn would it really be an upset?
Similarly, given its newfound belief and fervour, would Melbourne upstaging any better-credentialled opponent really have us sitting up and taking that special kind of notice afforded an underdog when it pips a star laden certainty?
With young and developing sides struggling to keep up it becomes less and less likely that we’ll see any true surprise results at all until final round junk time, I reckon.
Still, because we can, lets look at the candidates.
On current form, the Giants look more likely to attract flies than they do a semblance of a chance against anyone. Strike a line through them.
Only the most optimistic Saint would be interested in anything in the next few months beyond the club’s clash against the Tigers in Round 15. Other than that, given available cattle, St Kilda’s benchmark is really only general competitiveness and whatever KPIs are needed to make the club competitive in 2016 and beyond.
Now that their season is all but dust Richmond will probably win a few. For whatever reason, it’s just what they do. Hardly surprising.
But the Lions, after a tough early run, have a home game against Carlton this weekend followed by a leg-weary Bulldogs outfit. Thereafter they get a shot at the sagging GWS.
Perhaps the promise of a few weeks relative respite might inspire the spilling of a little Blue blood at the Gabbatoir on Saturday night?
I’ll draw ire from the Blues faithful but for the sake of the single-win Lions and their long-suffering tribe of loyalists I hope so.
It ain’t easy living in the shadow of your talent-swollen little brother down the freeway, but ably led by the tireless Jed Adcock, the likes of young toilers Marco Paparone, Sam Mayes, Nick Robertson, and Lewis Taylor have been absolutely busting a gut without much reward all year.
Eventually that kind of ethic claims a scalp or two.
Maybe Carlton’s will be first to be sliced.
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