Saturday is Queensland’s biggest raceday, three Group 1s including the state’s feature race, the Stradbroke Handicap.
The ‘Straddy’ is worth $1,000,000 to the victorious connections, and is traditionally among the hardest races of the year to pick the winner.
Looking at the last ten years, no horse has carried more than 55.5 kilograms, and the average winning price has been $15. Three of the last four winners of the race have jumped at $26, $31 and $21, so a long price shouldn’t deter anyone. Horses have shown they can win from any barrier with the right ride.
The favourite, as is often the case in the Stradbroke, is an in-form three-year-old on the minimum weight.
Srikandi won a Mornington benchmark 64 earlier this campaign, but has peeled off three Stakes races since arriving in Queensland, each more impressive than the last.
Glen Boss, who’d stab you as quick as look at you if it meant riding a big-race winner, has decided to stick with the youngster over Group 1 weight-for-age performer Rebel Dane. He’ll no doubt cross to either lead or be close to it from barrier 17 to fully exploit the weight advantage of his mount.
The only other three-year-old in the race if the emergencies don’t get a run, Hucklebuck, is second favourite, and has always shaped as a handy sprinter. The only real failures in his career thus far have been over a mile. His fitness looked to give out late as the leader first up, and he’ll be better for the run and with a sit. Dom Tourneur will have some decisions to make from gate one.
Spirit of Boom is the grand campaigner of the field and as the best horse in the race has been weighted with 58 kilograms accordingly. Low-flying this prep, he’s a dual Group 1 weight-for-age winner and has run second to Lankan Rupee twice as well. Michael Rodd knows the horse intimately, and if a horse is going to carry that impost to win this race, he’s got the right form and has drawn perfectly in six.
Temple of Boom meets his half-brother two kilos better for being beaten by a head in the Doomben 10,000, and is also in the form of his career. That race has provided eight of the last twelve winners, none of which won the lead-up. Temple has won five races at Eagle Farm, and many will fancy him to make it a sixth tomorrow. At the very least he looks ridiculous overs.
Many would consider Rebel Dane the run of the race from the Doomben 10,000. He had to take off a long way from home, was flushed out wide and even looked to hit the front at the furlong before weakening late to still only be beaten less than a length.
He was a month between runs that day, and will have no doubt improved off it. He’s a live chance and will have the master steering of Tommy Berry from a wide gate. History suggests the 56 kilograms he’ll have to carry will be an issue though.
Knoydart also had ‘nice Stradbroke trial’ written all over his Doomben 10,000 run, and ticks a lot of boxes, including dropping an attractive 5.5 kilograms from that run.
Only one horse in the last eleven years has won a Group 1 before winning the Stradbroke, but seven of them have been placed at the level beforehand. Knoydart has two Group 1 placings behind Lankan Rupee and Spirit of Boom this year.
He hit the line nicely from the rear last start, but his detractors will point out that he’s yet to win from four cracks at the 1400m distance range. If he does get the trip, he could well be a special.
Famous Seamus and Conservatorium come from the same race, neither horse flattering, albeit with things against. Class may well prove the stumbling block for both.
Red Tracer is the gun mare of the field, almost incapable of running a bad race, even though she was poor in the George Ryder two starts back. She’s never been able to get the job done against the boys at Group 1 level, and I’m not sure she’s well in at the weights against some of these. Happy to risk her all day.
Sacred Star flew over the Tasman with some solid New Zealand Group 1 form, and immediately took out the QTC Cup last week, the race Sincero used as his lead-up when winning the Stradbroke in 2011. There has to be a question mark over whether it’s the right form to be taking this out.
Smokin’ Joey only seems to have two gears since his transfer to Wes Hunter – blistering and God-awful.
In the last seven months he’s won at Group 1 and Group 3 level, been placed in an Emirates Stakes, yet when he hasn’t run in the first three, his average losing margin is over eight lengths in that time. He was $41 when taking out the Goodwood, and will be at a price again.
River Lad might be the best of the absolute roughies if Damien Oliver can give him the right ride pushing forward from barrier 19. He has two wins from four starts in 2014, along with a weight-for-age second to Appearance, and is a track lover that can make his own luck.
When we think of Stradbroke Handicaps, we think of a big field, a fast pace, and horses fanning wide across the track to make their runs in the straight. While there doesn’t look a huge amount of natural speed on paper, tomorrow be no different.
Selections: 1. Knoydart 2. Temple of Boom 3. Spirit of Boom 4. River Lad
The two other Group 1s on the day are the Queensland Derby for the three-year-olds, and the J.J Atkins for the juveniles.
Brazen Beau commands the market in the two-year-old race, winner of the Champagne two starts back and then the best of good things beaten after messing the start in the Sires Produce last time out.
Time For War had the better of him that day, and will go forward to make his own luck. Looks Like The Cat has the makings of a nice type and will likely make his presence felt for the flying Tony Gollan stable.
Gai Waterhouse can never be ignored, and is represented here by the apparently smart Almalad.
Selections: 1. Looks Like The Cat 2. Brazen Beau 3. Time For War 4. Almalad
The Derby looks a tough and even race, with not a lot of superstar presence among the young stayers.
The Rough Habit over 2000m and the Grand Prix over 2200m are always the traditional lead-up races for the 2400m feature, with most of the field having run in one or the other.
A handful competed in both, but no horse was able to run in the placings of each event. Amexed won the Rough Habit before finding little in the Grand Prix when it was his turn, while Vilanova had every chance in the former before taking out the latter.
The New Zealand filly Telepathic was unlucky in both races and might provide the value at double figure odds. The other filly, Rock Diva, is on the back up from the Oaks last week after eating up the ground late, and should be respected.
Pinstripe Lane represents Victoria’s best chance for Troy Corstens and should have finished closer to Vilanova after missing the boat last start.
Sydney’s fancy is Elusive Runner, who has only won a maiden and is travelling interstate for the first time, but is getting better stepping up in distance each time we see him.
Selections: 1. Telepathic 2. Vilanova 3. Pinstripe Lane 4. Elusive Runner
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