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This Welsh team does not truly believe they will beat the Springboks in South Africa.
I have been reading excellent articles from Wales; they have some of the best referees, commentators, writers, and knowledgeable fans.
It’s clear they are building a number of alibis for an 0-2 series loss.
In the aftermath, we will see terms like ‘brave’, ‘unlucky’, ‘close’, ‘narrow’, ‘flattering score’ and ‘moral victory’. Warren Gatland will bemoan schedules and injuries, and perhaps a few calls on mauls and the breakdown.
But there are five real reasons Wales will continue to add to more than a century of rugby futility in South Africa.
1. Wales are touring without a specialist openside flanker
Sam Warburton is injured and Aaron Shingler is going to try to rule against the Springbok breakdown committee of Bismarck du Plessis, Francois Louw, and Duane Vermeulen.
If the Welsh could break the Bok line a dozen times, perhaps complete ten offloads, and beat South Africa’s highly committed scramble defence, then this would not be such a worry. But the ball will go to ground, the contact area will be full of immovable South Africans, and the physicality of the Boks over the ball will make the lack of a true Welsh 7 apparent.
Look for Louw and Bismarck – and even Frans Steyn and Bryan Habana – to slow down Welsh ball in a way that Southern Hemisphere players are masters of.
2. Wales will not get in behind South Africa enough
Even if the Welsh could obtain plenty of clean, quick ball – and this will be hard to come by, won largely by big strike runners like Jamie Roberts, who will need to find the seam between Frans Steyn and the Bok flyhalf – there is a speed deficit for Wales to overcome.
South Africa’s back three will not be done by Alex Cuthbert or George North. In fact, Wales may find themselves chasing Cornal Hendricks, Habana and Willie le Roux, after the Boks explore the middle channels with Willem Alberts, Frans Steyn, and Vermeulen.
3. There just won’t be enough chances to score tries
Ruthless finishing and scoring is the main difference between Wales and South Africa.
The last time they played, capitalising on the shaky return of Jaque Fourie to the 13 channel, Jon Davies made two clean breaks to start the Test, deep in the Bok half, from which Wales harvested six points. South Africa had a sniff of a couple of chances and scored seventeen points. Of course it was not over, but it was a huge deficit for Wales from there.
In Durban, the Bok midfield will not hand the Welsh line breaks in the first 15 minutes. In fact, Wales will have to work very hard to find space. Then they will have to make perfect choices to exploit them.
4. Wales break the rules too much
South Africa will punish Wales if they infringe from 55 metres in and the Dragons gave up 59 penalties in the Six Nations.
The scrum may be an area where both sides are guessing and hoping, but at the breakdown, the lack of a real opensider may cause others to try their hands at the pilfering or slowing arts, and give South Africa nine or twelve free points.
5. Wales cannot disturb South Africa’s lineout enough
Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Alberts, Vermeulen and super-sub Schalk Burger will keep almost all Bok lineout ball safe, and maybe steal a few from Wales.
Or do I have it all wrong?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.