Tuesday will be the first day of the five day Royal Ascot meet. Unlike previous Royal Ascots, there are no raiders from Australia for the meet this year.
Nonetheless, it’s still five days of racing packed with high quality races from top to bottom of the card. So let’s preview Day 1 actions:
Queen Anne Stakes, G1, 4-year-olds+, 1m (Straight Mile)
The meet start with a Group 1. The past give winners of this race are all megastars, including Paco Boy, Goldikova, Canford Cliffs, Frankel and Declaration of War.
This year, however, seems to be a relatively weak renewal. Toronado finished second in Royal Ascot last year in the St. James’s Palace to Dawn Approach before reversing the form in the Sussex Stakes in their rematch.
However, this will be his first start since last August and both he and Dawn Approach failed to place since the Sussex mean the current odd of 11/10 have no value at all.
Verrazano was the favourite for the Kentucky Derby last year but got burned by the extremely quick pace and finished down the field. Extremely impressive in the Haskell(9f, about 1800m Grade I on dirt for 3yo), but flopped in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the 10f Travers. Decent third at the first start this year in the Lockinge and is expected to improve. A very likely contender.
A chance is taken with Snow Falling Rain.While he flopped in the QEII in Ascot due to heavy going, he was impressive when winning in Dubai last year and the Group 2 Nayef Joel in Newmarket. He finished second to Variety Club last start in Dubai, who subsequently demolished top Hong Kong horse in the Champions Mile. His current form is good and have good proven ability and therefore will be my top choice.
Tullius looked a decent Group 2 horse but no Group 1 contender while Anodin failed to mount any pressure to Cirrus Des Aigles while finishing second last start. Mull of Killough and Side Glance are in the Queen Anne after travelling to Australia last year. However, they are probably not good enough.
Selections: Snow Falling Rain, Verrazano
Coventry Stakes, 2yo, 6f
It is a race that is difficult to handicap by nature, as most of them only won a maiden or at best, another listed race. Aside last year’s shock, the favourite had a good record in this race. Unfortunately, the highly regarded The Great War had been rerouted to the Norfolk Stakes, being the hot ante-post favourite.
Kool Company beat War Envoy last start in a listed race in Nass, War Envoy is the favourite but I doubt if the form can be reversed. The Wow Signal won a maiden in Ayr by 9 lengths, the second and third then won next start. He is my top pick based on ability but the draw (post 1) is catastrophically bad.
For the outsiders, I prefer Bossy Guest. He had trouble in running and failed to obtain a clear run, but still managed to win in the final strides. Being by Medicean, he is bred to be a precocious sort as well. Drawn in seven suggests he will be able to avoid being trapped.
Selections: The Wow Signal, Bossy Guest
King’s Stand Stakes, G1, 3yo+, 5f
This race have to be analysed with the ground in the mind. The ante-post favourite Hot Streak will prefer good to soft ground or worse, while Sole Power will need ground as firm as possible.
As it stands, Sole Power will be a slightly better betting prospect than Hot Streak, assuming there are no additional rain. Shea Shea had been a very good horse throughout the years, however he is about to turn seven and may have declined slightly.
Ahtoug is a very interesting prospect. His second to Amber Sky is very good form, and his price (14/1) is a massive underlay. Guerre looked great last start and with Ryan Moore choosing him over Sole Power, he should be feared. Most of the remainders are outsiders, though Es Que Love seems to have improved and worth as a each-way prospect at 33/1.
Selections: Ahtoug, Guerre, Es Que Love
St. James’s Palace Stakes, G1, three-year-old Colt only, 1m (round course)
This year’s three-year-old crop is a magnificent bunch, and this year’s St. James Palace will see round 3 of Kingman v Night of thunder. Toormore and War Command was the leading two-year-old last year, but their form did not worked all that well. Outstrip was last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf victor, but he lost to War Command in the Dewhurst before that and there’s no reason to suggest he can reverse form with War Command. All protagonists had raced in the 2000 Guineas in May, even though the race was splitted into two groups, it is hard to see the three to be able to challenge the first two anyhow. Night of Thunder won two lesser races impressively as a 2yo, but finished second in the Greenham to Kingman comprehensively when starting at 11/4 (second fav). He then completely reverse the form when beating Kingman in the 2000 Guineas, despite drifting left rapidly in the closing stages. Kingman probably find the ground a bit too firm in the 2000 Guineas, but on softer ground, he is magnificent, as demonstrated in the Irish 2000 Guineas. With the ground likely to be on the soft side of good, Kingman is preferred over Night of Thunder.
Selection: Kingman
Ascot Stakes, handicap, 2m4f
The first marathon race of the meet. Jump trainers have a good record in this race, so they should deserve extra attention. That said, I feel this race to be more like a lottery. Perfect Heart look progressive last year, and won his first start this year and therefore is a deserved favourite.
Besides, I also liked Ballinderry Boy, ridden by the talented apprentice Oisin Murphy and Brockwell, though let’s be frank, your guess is as good as mine.
Selections: Brockwell, Perfect Heart, Ballinderry Boy
Windsor Castle Stakes, Listed, 2yo, 5f
The last race(lottery) of the day. As a two-year-old race racing minimum distance, horses with precocious breeding is preferred. The draw will also have huge impact, the higher the draw the better.
Haxby is bred to be precocious and is relatively experienced. Mubtaghaa seems to handle Ascot well in his first start and should be included. Roudee is the best of the remainders.
Selections: Haxby, Mubtaghaa
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