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In what is shaping up to be the match of the round, the Gold Coast Suns will try to win their first ever match against the Geelong Cats, as the two teams battle at Metricon Stadium. Join The Roar for live scores and commentary from 4:40 (AEST).
Since entering the competition in 2011 the Suns have lost all four meetings with the Cats. They have lost those four matches by an average of 71 points and the Cats have won both matches at Metricon Stadium.
Gold Coast has played better than the results suggests though and were level with the Cats at three quarter time in their last meeting in 2013.
The implications for this match are huge. A loss by either team will see them falling down the ladder in a big way.
If Gold Coast loses then either Adelaide or Essendon – if they don’t draw when they face each other – will replace the Suns in the top 8.
If Geelong loses then either Collingwood or Fremantle can take their spot in the top four with a win over the weekend.
Gold Coast has more to lose though. They face Hawthorn and Collingwood after Geelong and need a win today after losing their last three matches.
This included the loss last week to the Eagles where they fell agonisingly short of winning their first match in Perth. Down by 39 points in the thrid quarter, the Suns fought back with seven of the last eight goals to almost steal the match.
The last goal of the game, which went to the Eagles, was enough for them to win.
They face a tougher proposition in Geelong who smashed the Saints last week by 96 points.
Without some of their best players, and a quiet game from Joel Selwood, the Cats were dominant as they kicked 20 goals in the match.
They have made six changes for the clash with Steve Johnson, Hamish McIntosh, Jared Rivers, Allen Christensen, Josh Caddy and Shane Kersten in the team.
Johnson and Rivers return after being rested last week with Christensen, Caddy and McIntosh returning from long layoffs with injury.
Christensen is a welcome return to the Cats, and makes his first appearance in 2014, after a back injury in February ruled him out for the first few months of the season.
Shane Kersten, the last player in the squad, is making his debut today and is looked upon as another tall option to compliment Tom Hawkins in attack. He kicked six goals last week in the VFL and the Cattery is excited about what Kersten could provide to the team.
Gold Coast has made just one change with Aaron Hall out and Jack Martin in for the Suns. Martin returns after he damaged his shoulder in the opening round against the Tigers. He is highly rated by the Suns and everyone will be hoping he can play a full game this time around.
Most of the focus on the match will be on Gary Ablett, who has had a stellar career at both clubs.
This will be his fourth match against the Cats and he averages just over 30 disposals a game against his former club.
On the other side of the ledger, Steve Johnson is dominant when he plays the Suns. He averages just over 27 disposals against the Suns and has kicked 13 goals in 3 games against them.
The midfield battle will decide the game with the young Suns against the combination of youth and experience of the Cats.
Can Gold Coast match it with Geelong, who is a team destined to play finals football this year?
Stats show the Suns have struggled against top 8 teams with one win and three losses against those teams.
I see that continuing and Geelong to win in an enthralling encounter.
Prediction: Geelong by 12.
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