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Saturday afternoon at Allianz will be the last chance for Wallabies centres Matt Toomua and Tevita Kuridrani to cement their berths against the All Blacks and Springboks in The Rugby Championship.
Both are graduates of the Jake White-Stephen Larkham school of booting the ball into opposition territory and hoping for the best. Neither fit the Ewen McKenzie strategy of running the ball.
The two best attacking units in the Wallabies backline, Israel Folau and Nick Cummins, have only scored two tries between them in two Tests against France as a result, and Cummins’ try was set up by Folau.
These two cannot be denied again. France will be a far tougher proposition tomorrow than they were in last Saturday’s tryless 6-0 contest, the scoreline a result of the Wallabies failing to play McKenzie rugby.
If the Wallabies try that trick against the All Blacks and the Boks, they will cop a caning.
The All Blacks have been in trouble twice against England in the past fortnight, but have found a way to win by scoring tries. The Boks have made Wales look ordinary, also scoring tries.
And scoring five-pointers is the only way the Wallabies can regain the Bledisloe Cup and The Rugby Championship. Bernard Foley will add the extras with his accurate boot.
And it will be Foley who will set the backline alight if McKenzie reverts to the obvious centre pairing of Waratahs Kurtley Beale and Adam Ashley-Cooper.
The Waratahs are on top of the Australian Super Rugby Conference and second on the overall table, thanks largely to Beale and Ashley-Cooper being in red-hot form.
More importantly, it’s only Beale who can regularly release Folau to do his customary damage. While he’s at it, Beale can also release Cummins.
These are two very different centre combinations. Toomua is a better defender than Beale, but Beale is by far the better attacking unit. Ashley-Cooper hasn’t the physical presence of Kuridrani, but he’s a better defender and more consistent line-breaker.
Ashley-Cooper still has a problem passing the ball after making the break, but overall he’s still a better proposition because of his understanding with Beale.
And the Waratahs pairing brings Rob Horne into play. He has been a revelation for the Waratahs this season with his strong running and devastating defence.
The only weak link in my backline is halfback Nic White. But with Will Genia injured and Nick Phipps no better alternative, McKenzie’s options are limited.
There’s one part of White’s play McKenzie can control. Tell the Brumby if he box kicks just once, he’s going to be dragged immediately and never selected again. If that deterrent doesn’t work, White has no right to wear gold.
Regardless, having a great backline doesn’t mean a toss if the Wallabies forwards don’t produce good, quick and controlled ball.
I’m waiting for Scott Sio to return to the front row, waiting for Nathan Charles to be the No. 1 hooker as his lineout feeds do Tatafa Polota-Nau off the break, and waiting for lock Luke Jones to partner Will Skelton.
Wycliff Palu has again been given the nod at No 8. As the most injured forward in recent Wallabies history who isn’t David Pocock, Palu is a Russian-roulette selection. On his day he’s dynamic around the park, but those days are well apart.
Has anyone ever done an analysis on how many hours and days Palu has missed through injury since he debuted as a Wallaby in 2006? It would be substantial.
The Wallabies are on the brink of great moments of rugby under Ewen McKenzie, but those moments must be consistent, not spasmodic.
McKenzie can’t do it from the stands. His troops have got to do it on the park.
And Saturday afternoon is the best time to start.