- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
The AFL’s current top eight are all finals-bound and have been for a while, as those who read the astute analysis of my Roar colleague Cameron Rose a month ago would be aware.
The gap between ninth and eighth is still only one game – and arguably the most vulnerable of top eight, Gold Coast, have slipped into that eighth spot since last month – but you can cool your jets.
Essendon, a game behind, have on and off-field problems to overcome in their immediate future. It starts with four of their next five games being against top six opposition, including Port Adelaide at the Portress and Sydney at the SCG.
West Coast and Adelaide, two games out of the eight on six wins, simply haven’t given us enough to factor them into calculations.
Reading this, you’d be forgiven for thinking that there’s not much interest to be generated from the bottom ten from this point in the season onwards. Perhaps, though, the real interest lies a little further down the ladder.
Those clubs lagging behind the three custodians of the AFL’s middle-tier are all in remarkably similar positions to each other with nine games left to play. One win separates 12th and 18th, and all teams within that range are capable of beating each other and arguably those mid-tier sides as well.
The rarity of the wooden spoon field running this high up the ladder this late in the season means the race to the bottom warrants attention. Besides, what else about the bottom ten are we going to talk about?
Let’s run through the spoon contenders one by one.
12th. Carlton (4 wins, 87.4 percentage)
The Blues are sitting on top of the pack and their new club president even reckons Mick Malthouse should be given a fresh three-year deal beyond 2015. Does this mean supporters can feel comfortable then? Err, not quite.
Of the bottom seven, it’s the Blues who have the worst draw from here out. They have just one more game against a bottom-seven side (St Kilda in two weeks) and one against a mid-tier opponent.
The Blues did well to at least challenge Geelong and Hawthorn a few weeks back, but last weekend’s Greater Western Sydney defeat now goes next to losses to Brisbane, Melbourne and Richmond. This is a footy club that has to be considered in the wooden spoon mix.
Wooden spoon risk: moderate
13th. Western Bulldogs (4 wins, 80.8)
Though the Doggies’ upset win over Collingwood two weeks ago is now forgotten after being dealt a 72-point Port Adelaide loss, the draw is a little kinder to them.
They are 1 of 3 bottom-seven sides – Melbourne and GWS being the others – that still have three clashes with fellow cellar-dwellers, plus a mid-tier bout, before the season is out. The concern is that they don’t give off the same whiff of upward trajectory that you get when looking at the seasons of Melbourne and GWS, which could come to the fore when the Dogs face both (in Rounds 15 and 23, respectively).
Also, along with Carlton, they share the equal-longest injury list of the spoon contenders.
Wooden spoon risk: low-moderate
14th. GWS Giants (4 wins, 78.5)
After a rather inexplicable mid-season form drop – that’s putting it politely – the Giants are back and suddenly have two wins in a row, plus a noteworthy seven-point loss to Hawthorn not far behind in the rear-vision mirror. The good news is the turnaround can be credited to both young and experienced players.
Until three weeks ago, the Giants had never had three players top 30 disposals in a game. It’s now happened twice, with Devon Smith, Dylan Shiel and Lachie Whitfield playing a part in making it happen. On the other end, you’ve also got the return from injury of key players Shane Mumford and Phil Davis.
This mix would appear to imply the recent run of form is sustainable.
Wooden spoon risk: low
15th. Melbourne (4 wins, 76.8)
The gradual improvement the Dees have shown under Paul Roos has been one of 2014’s great stories. In the opening rounds, they couldn’t get home against St Kilda and GWS, while West Coast gave them a 93-point hiding.
They are a different team now, and each month they’ve looked better. The weekend’s injury to Daniel Cross – who will miss up to six weeks – is a blow, but the run home has a few winnable matches, starting with the Western Bulldogs this week and continuing with games against Brisbane and GWS in Melbourne down the stretch.
Wooden spoon risk: low
16th. Richmond (3 wins, 92.5)
Oh, to be a Richmond supporter with any slight recollection of last season. Or this season’s pre-season hype, for that matter.
‘Three wins?’ ‘Wooden spoon?’ Those words must induce considerable pain.
The good news is the Tigers clearly have the best percentage of the cellar-dwellers, indicating they are probably the side least deserving of being grouped with the others. They also have the best run home fixture wise, with four games against bottom-seven opponents and three against the three mid-tier sides. Happy days.
The bad news is they are the Tigers, and with the way this year has completely derailed to date, you would be brave to totally rule out it ending with a mad scramble to avoid the spoon.
Wooden spoon risk: low-Moderate
17th. Brisbane Lions (3 wins, 59.9)
Expectations weren’t the highest this year for the Lions, and some untimely injuries got in the way of a Cinderella story. Still, the margins for their three wins have been three, seven and eight points – a fair indication they might be on a level below the teams above them on the ladder.
Though technically not as blowout-prone as St Kilda, the run home is tough relative to the Saints. It’ll come down to a stretch of five games – Richmond away, West Coast at home, Gold Coast at home, Melbourne away and Adelaide at home – where the goal of snagging two wins is not at all unattainable.
Wooden spoon risk: high
18th. St Kilda (3 wins, 59.3)
Over the next two weeks St Kilda face Richmond and Carlton at Etihad Stadium, and without splitting those games, avoiding the spoon will become difficult. Problem is, the Saints aren’t in the kind of form that suggests they can do it – they last won in Round 5 and haven’t lost by under five goals since Round 6.
Thankfully, they do get another two opportunities against bottom-seven opposition later in the year – the Bulldogs and Richmond again in Rounds 20 and 22. It positions them well for a late rally to palm the wooden spoon off.
Wooden spoon risk: high
The verdict is that Carlton do need to watch their tail with that draw. The Blues only have two games left against sides that won’t be playing in September, compared to St Kilda’s five and Brisbane’s four, though you suspect Mick’s men might be able to sneak a win against North Melbourne, Geelong or Gold Coast – all are being played at Etihad.
More likely than not, it comes down to Brisbane or St Kilda. You can flip a coin as to which one, and it will probably be a matter of percentage who finishes lower.