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The comedown from the June Internationals back into the final rounds of Super Rugby has left me with a funny, part-underwhelming, partly-enthusiastic feeling of what’s ahead.
It’s similar to what †he State of Origin series does to NRL club games.
In the past I didn’t mind the break for the June Tests, followed by the run into the Super Rugby finals, but the high of last year’s British and Irish Lions series, and the positivity coming out of the clean sweep of France this year has made for a rather deflating step.
Therefore, I’m coming around to shifting the international window back into July, allowing the domestic competitions either side of the equator play out to their conclusion. Remove the need for pre-Test camps, for staggered squad arrivals, and for any national team having to field a weakened side because of domestic finals.
That the ‘big five’ rugby nations could have their logical suggestion so quickly dismissed – as Spiro reported recently the Welsh, Irish, and Scottish committee delegates did leading into the June Tests – is even more bewildering.
Anyway, I’ve digressed somewhat. The run home for Super Rugby is here, whether we’re ready for it or not.
I’ve written this type of column a few times in the past, because while the subjects may change, the context and relevance certainly does not. It is a big couple of weeks for a number of teams. That number will almost certainly shrink by the end of the weekend.
Brumbies
The obvious one first. A horror injury toll coming out of the Wallabies’ three Tests against France, and to other non-Test players as well, has exposed some major holes in their squad, and has exacerbated the hurt of the upset loss to the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein in mid-May.
Hooker and captain-in-waiting Stephen Moore is gone for the season, blowing his knee out just three minutes into his first Test as Wallabies captain. Lock Sam Carter was ruled out for upwards of a month after the same Test, and Pat McCabe and Matt Toomua have also been ruled out of the crucial match with the Waratahs in Sydney on Saturday night.
Worse still, winger Joe Tomane remains in severe doubt and third-choice hooker Josh Mann-Rea tore a hamstring in a club game in Canberra last weekend. With number two No.2 Siliva Siliva already out for the season, the Brumbies had drafted in former Force, Tahs, and Rebels journeyman Luke Holmes before the international break, while Ulster-bound prop Ruaidhri Murphy – himself only just back from injury – has been training at hooker in recent weeks, and may start there on Saturday.
What was already a must-win game for last year’s finalists has become that much harder a task. With the bye coming next weekend, there’s a very real risk that a loss at Homebush could put the line through the Brumbies for 2014.
Chiefs, Highlanders, and Western Force
All three teams are precariously perched either side of the top six cut-off, waiting for teams above them to fall, or to pounce themselves.
The Chiefs and Highlanders will be buoyed by the Test form of their respective spearheads; Brodie Retallick, Liam Messam, and Aaron Cruden for the Chiefs, and Ben Smith and Malakai Fekitoa for the Highlanders. Cruden really looked to have hit his straps by the end of the three Tests against New Zealand, and his form more than anyone’s will be crucial if the Chiefs are to go back-to-back-to-back.
Smith and Fekitoa have the potential to break open any game for the Highlanders.
No team will be sweating on the Homebush grudge match more than the Force. Should the Brumbies lose the ‘Hume Highway clash’, a Force win in Perth over the Blues could see them cement their place in the top six and as the second Australian qualifier. The final round match against the Brumbies in Canberra was always shaping as something of a decider, but if things fall their way in the next two rounds, the Force’s place in the finals may already be decided.
Nick Cummins, Ben McCalman, and Pek Cowan all played reasonably well for the Wallabies in the Tests, and though Force skipper Matt Hodgson saw no match time, the playing break could be what re-energises him to continue at the same ridiculously high level he’s been operating this season.
Hurricanes and Crusaders
If the Brumbies were the hardest hit by injuries during the June Internationals, the losses of the equally inspirational Conrad Smith and Richie McCaw could yet have a major bearing on the finals chances for the Hurricanes and Crusaders, respectively.
The Crusaders have had to get used to playing without McCaw over the years, and the return of Kieran Read will lessen the impact.
However, the Hurricanes without their midfield general are far less fearful for opposition sides. So much of the Hurricanes’ defensive shape comes from Smith, just as his vision leads to so many of their counter-attacking opportunities.
For the Hurricanes, you’d think the pressure of a likely finals appearance now surely rests on Beauden Barrett. For the Crusaders, though they’re probably better equipped to share the load of McCaw’s absence, it will still be interesting to see how someone like Colin Slade steps up. Or even how quickly Dan Carter returns.
Bulls
The lone South African team on this list, and with the Sharks sitting pretty at the top of the log, the only one still at risk. The Bulls don’t play this week, but other results will almost certainly impact their standing. They could be officially out of contention before they kick a ball in anger again.
Waratahs
They might just be the best placed Super Rugby team coming into the resumption. The Tahs had a number of key players involved in the June Tests and, more importantly, playing well.
They might have even cemented their coveted conference-topping spot by the time the round is done.