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Last week I said Adelaide’s AFL season was done. In Round 15 they extended a middle finger in my direction, at the same time reshaping the prospects of the top four.
Forget the biggest win of the round: the Crows pulled off one of the biggest of the year, downing local rivals and ladder-leaders Port Adelaide in fine style.
Port’s reputation is as a fast, attack-minded team that shreds opponents in the later stages of games. In most games this year they’ve surged in the third quarter. This time, after leading for most of the first half, their third quarter was scoreless.
Adelaide harassed them, attacked them, worried them and outran them, crashing into every contest with full commitment. When Port threatened to come back in the last quarter, a mix of magic and determination from Eddie Betts kept them at bay.
It seemed like every mid-range Crow played his best game for the year, and for the first time we saw what this team could do if they fired each week. It’s encouraging stuff for coach Brenton Sanderson.
Last week the Crows were down in 11th and drifting, now they’re only a game outside the eight, with Gold Coast and North Melbourne both cut to a four-point lead and likely to lose that this week.
They would still have to transform their consistency and win some tricky away fixtures, so I’m not exactly backing down on my prediction. But if the Crows could produce Showdown football every week, they could prove it wrong.
The loss was equally significant for Port, dumping them from top spot on the ladder, and for the top four, where it has created a log-jam. Port, Hawthon and Sydney are now all on 44 points, with Fremantle and Geelong on 40.
The closing weeks of the season offer a buffet of contests that will shape the finals. Hawthorn face Sydney in Round 18, then Fremantle, Geelong and Collingwood in the last three games of the season.
Fremantle travel to Geelong in Round 20, while Port have Collingwood in Round 19, Sydney in Round 20 and Fremantle in Round 23.
Hawthorn and Sydney’s routine wins did boost their percentage, tightening things up there too. Hawthorn’s was a foregone conclusion against Gold Coast on a wet Tasmanian day, but it carried them top of the ladder. Their big loss was Cyril Rioli for up to 10 weeks: the kind of player who can be the difference in a tight top-end tussle.
It had few ladder ramifications, but Round 15 saw a huge win for Brisbane as well. Club champion Jonathan Brown needed a send-off worthy of his years, his premierships and his leadership – and he got one.
His abrupt mid-week retirement might have taken people by surprise, but his teammates composed themselves. Seemingly by sheer force of will, the Lions held off North Melbourne’s late press to survive by under a goal, allowing Brown one more changing-room celebration.
The Western Bulldogs would have been cheered by their win over Melbourne, breaking them clear of the bottom six, while Richmond limped up the ladder from 16th to 13th by managing not to stuff up against spoon-fanciers St Kilda.
The big losers, Port aside, were North Melbourne and Essendon.
On 2014 pedigree Essendon wouldn’t have been favourites to beat Geelong, but with Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Sydney coming up, and the Cats off some shaky form, this was the Bombers’ best chance at a top-eight scalp.
They nearly had it but couldn’t close it out, in the process dropping back behind Adelaide to 10th on the ladder, and vulnerable to West Coast and even the Doggies a game or two behind.
Realistically, Essendon’s finals hopes are done. The Bombers’ Round 22 match against Gold Coast could be an early elimination final, but only if the Suns stuff up their most winnable games to let their lower-placed rivals back in.
The other Essendon saviour could be North Melbourne. The Kangaroos have a 100 per cent shooting accuracy when aiming at their own feet. Currently seventh, with some serious wins behind them and the chance to ascend ahead, they decided to lose to second-bottom Brisbane.
Seventh on 32 points, the Roos need at least five more wins to make the cut. St Kilda, Carlton, GWS, the Bulldogs and Melbourne should provide them, but the way North have played this year that’s no guarantee. Then again, the seismograph of their 2014 form sees them equally likely to upset Hawthorn or Geelong.
They’ve beaten Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney, then lost to lesser teams. You couldn’t say they’re playing any better than Carlton, who despite competing strongly against top-six sides over the last three weeks have fallen from 12th to 14th.
North should scrape into the finals, but the way they’re going their confidence will be shot once they get there. As for the other seven teams, I think I know who they’re going to be, but it may be Round 23 before we know how the order will fall.