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Get into Africa, Lord is pie in the Sky

Roar Pro
3rd July, 2014
1

Group racing action returns to Melbourne town on Saturday with the running of the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes, over 1100 metres at Caulfield, under weight for age conditions.

It’s typically not a hotly contested race, by Group 3 standard, with most horses either in form ‘winter warriors’ stepping up for a crack at stakes grade or ‘B and C grade’ sprinters kicking off early to try and pinch a nice cheque before the real stars return to action.

This year’s race fits a similar bill, with a field of just nine accepting to contest the ‘time-honoured’ Caulfield Sprint.

The short-priced early favourite for the race is three year old Danrich colt, Lord of the Sky, trained by Robbie Laing at Cranbourne. And straight from the off I’m willing to say the fact this three-year-old is $2.25 is early markets makes it an attractive betting race, because I simply don’t have that high an opinion of it.

I’ve got him pinned down as a one dimensional speedy squib who if he doesn’t get the favours up on top of the speed, can’t win. Maybe I am being too harsh when appraising the horse, but it’s certainly not from a ‘wallet’ perspective.

I went head first into him at $1.50 first up last prep around this venue, and while he won, he was far from impressive beating average opposition.

On the first of February he stepped up to open listed company in the listed Adams Stakes at Flemington. Against quality opposition he was thrashed. He was never in the race with a hope at any stage.

Last time out he was too slick over the 1000 metres around Caulfield, winning an open handicap and defeating Elite Elle in the process. But there’s two knocks on the horse out of that win, both major in my opinion.

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It was 1000 metres – his only try past 1000 metres was over 1118 on debut at Werribee, where he finished fourth in behind some very poor opposition.

He carried a tiny 51.5 kilograms last start with the claim and rises an enormous 7.5 kilograms this time around, while rising steeply in grade. In fact the most he’s carried in any of his four wins has been 55.5kg in a 3 year-old Bm78 win.

Simply can’t have him even though it does look like he maps well out in front. 1100m – no. Up hugely in weight – no. WFA – no. Class – no. $2.25 is crazy,

My clear top pick in the Race is horse six, African Pulse.

Just look at his first up record. Six starts, five wins. He’s that good first up I remember the stable having a plonk on him to beat Sepoy fresh, although he was subsequently scratched. He did still come out and win first up when produced.

His only first up miss was intact last time out, when a very gallant fourth behind Shamal Win in the Adams.

Here’s where I’m at even more of a loss to explain the prices, because as mentioned Lord of the Sky ran in the Adams. He was 13th beaten 7.7L. African Pulse in the same race was fourth beaten 3L. African Pulse beat Lord of the Sky 3.7L that day and carried 3.5kg more than him.

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So under the Winter WFA scale, he meets the short-priced favourite 3 kilograms better at the weights having beaten him nearly 4L at their last clash. Just doesn’t add up. Maybe I’m missing something? But it’s Africa all the way for me. Very confident he’ll run well fresh as per the program.

The real and definite danger to African Pulse comes in the form of South Aussie galloper Riziz.

He was Group 1 placed two starts back in the Goodwood at Morphettville behind Smokin’ Joey who subsequently was nearly the run of the race in a hotly contested Stradbroke Handicap in Brisbane. That form is top grade.

He’s won once and placed once from three goes at 1100 metres, so the journey is no problem, nor is the weight fro age scale of the race. His problem may well be Caulfield.

It’s a very tough track to negate, especially the first time a horse races on it. There’s a long run down the side into what is almost a 90 degree corner leading into the straight. The old adage ‘got lost around Caulfield’ is very easy to understand.

He’ll be spotting African Pulse a start and there doesn’t look to be too much tempo in the race, but if he can balance up within a length or two, he can finish all over the top.

The others to make up the nine are:
Ready to Rip, who is a definite chance in the race. By no means hopeless and is in the best barn.
Morant, who is making up the numbers.
Le Bonsir, who is Group 1 placed but struggles around Caulfield. In actual fact, he struggles away from Moonee Valley.
Mr Make Believe needs it very wet and is older, but I am not sure if he is any wiser.
Good Value is a bit of an unknown but would need to go to another level to get near them.
Johannapine has as lost any resemblance of form.

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I’m keen to play here though! African Pulse straight out, with a saver on the Exacta Riziz/African Pulse.

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