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Six weeks ago, I said the top eight to be locked away. Now it’s time to declare the premiership race all but over.
The weekend’s matches made the final eight call a little shaky, but they also showed how far ahead of the competition the Sydney Swans are.
While the rest of the contenders are looking vulnerable or are yet to produce their best form this season, the Swans are tracking along almost unnoticed, having won 11 games in a row, and now sit a game clear at the top of the table.
Their early season form slump, when they attracted justified criticism, is now well behind them. The scary part for opposition fans is that we haven’t actually seen a whole lot of their best football, which was a three-week run in late May and early June.
The win of the season was Sydney demolishing Geelong by 110 points in Round 11. Rarely has a more emphatic statement been made at the halfway mark of a home-and-away season.
The next week, they fought out a highly skilled, tough and fast contest against Gold Coast, before prevailing by 35 points in a margin that belied the closeness of the game in general play. The Suns had every right to believe they’d be playing finals off the back of such a quality affair.
Round 13 was probably the match of the season, when a fit and flying Port Power travelled to the SCG and only went down by four points thanks to a virtuoso Lance Franklin display.
In the three matches since, the Swans have done what they’ve needed to. Flat against Richmond after such a stunning three week period, they shook off their torpor just in time to notch the win.
They handled Greater Western Sydney with ease, and were never seriously challenged in the Perth wet against West Coast on Sunday.
Josh Kennedy leads the midfield, and some have made the case that he’s having a Brownlow-quality year. Not many get first hands on the ball at a stoppage more than him, and if you haven’t noticed him in a match, chances are he’s only had 25 touches and 5 clearances rather than his usual 30 and 10.
Kieren Jack is a wonderfully effective footballer with explosive capabilities, Jarrad McVeigh is the seasoned professional whose mistakes occur as often as tax time, while Dan Hannebery, arguably the best of all of them, hasn’t been missed in an injury-enforced absence.
Luke Parker has had a stellar year, and is quietly making a case for All-Australian. The best way to describe his game is to say that his best attributes are a combination of the players above. Craig Bird will never have a big profile, but has been having a big impact in 2014.
The best midfielders, and midfield groups, do their best work forward of centre, and this Sydney collection is no exception. Despite their reputation for hard two-way running, the six players mentioned have combined for 315 inside fifties this year, but only 107 rebounds from defensive fifty.
This is not to say these guys don’t get back to help out their defenders, but they’re not as required to bear as much load when you’ve got the class of Nick Malceski and the impregnability and decision-making of Dane Rampe bringing the ball out.
You know what you’re going to get with Ted Richards, while Heath Grundy provides support (and the odd heart attack to supporters). Nick Smith locks down on the smalls, Rhyce Shaw has had a good year, and Jeremy Laidler is the perfect type of journeyman role-player who can find a home in the Sydney backline.
The ruck division has looked weak, but you can get away with it if the rest of your team is strong. Mike Pyke has either been injured or poor, and Tom Derickx has had more positive news stories than touches of the football.
Buddy Franklin has finally reclaimed his rightful title as the best and most feared forward in the competition, moving freely, roaming dangerously and winning matches for his team.
Kurt Tippett has only played five matches, but looked in ominous touch for the most part. He’d want a good month or two of football in him before finals start, and will play a crucial role once there.
Sam Reid hasn’t done a lot, and won’t go close to fulfilling his potential as a forward while Franklin and Tippett are around, but he’s a decent foil when required, and will be a handy second ruck or loose man in defence. He’s basically a superior version of Lewis Roberts-Thomson.
Adam Goodes is more icing than cake these days, and has slowly worked his way into some good touch. His experience, skill and smarts around goal will keep opposition defences occupied, even if he’s not going to get the ball as often as he used to.
Lewis Jetta has been okay, even if he only needs to be in the same postcode as the goals to have a ping, Harry Cunningham continues to develop, and Ben McGlynn is still dangerous around goal but is now a hard-nosed run-with midfielder.
The Swans line-up is one that presently doesn’t have room for a recent Norm Smith Medalist in Ryan O’Keefe, or one of the brightest young talents in the game in Tom Mitchell, which speaks to their admirable depth, and a coaching staff that selects on merit, not previous credits or future potential.
Injuries will be a bridge too far for Hawthorn, Port are feeling the pinch of being up for so long, and Geelong and Collingwood are spluttering and were probably never a real premiership threat anyway.
Fremantle pose the only real danger to Sydney, and Ross Lyon has them on a long, slow burn to September, where they will hopefully show us their best.
Until we see what the Dockers are truly capable of, this premiership is Sydney’s to lose. A game clear on top, with wins already this season over all of their main rivals, and the most balanced and talented line-up in the league.
Perhaps they should just give them the flag now and be done with it.