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I am looking forward to the real man’s World Cup next year – where men only get stretchered off the field if they’ve broken something and won’t be back five minutes later to prance around.
But unfortunately there is only one team with a real shot at taking home the title: New Zealand.
Australia, England and South Africa will all have very good teams, each capable of winning in their own right, but the nature of the draw will mean that none of these teams will have the legs to beat New Zealand in the final.
Australia and England have the toughest run in the ‘pool of death’, where they have been grouped together with Wales and Fiji. That’s two games against top-10 opponents and another against Fiji, who are no mugs and sit in 11th spot. Ouch.
South Africa aren’t too much better off with three top-10 opponents in Samoa, Scotland and Japan. Although it’s easier than facing Australia, England, Wales and Fiji, this is still tough pool for the South Africans.
Compare that to New Zealand’s pool matches against Argentina (12), Tonga (13), Georgia (15) and Namibia (22) and no one can argue they have shockingly easy run to the quarter-finals.
Some might argue this would leave the Kiwis underdone, with no big games under their belt heading into the next round. But they’ll most likely be up against France or Ireland, which will hardly have them shaking in their boots.
Sure, France have been the Kiwi’s bogey team in World Cups, but it’s hard to see the current side repeating the miracles of past teams.
Meanwhile, in Pool A and B, South Africa will be up against either Australia or England (I’m assuming Wales won’t make it past the pool stage) and the side not playing South Africa will be up against the physical Samoans.
As an Aussie, I’m going to back the Wallabies to win Pool A and beat Samoa in the quarter-final, leaving England to face South Africa.
That brings us to the semi-final, where the Wallabies will face the winner of South Africa or England.
On the other side of the draw, New Zealand will play either France, Ireland or Argentina in their semi-final. The Kiwi’s will have to shift into third gear for this game but should breeze though without too much trouble and be fresh and ready to go for the final.
To be honest, it won’t matter who they play as the second, third and fourth ranked teams in the world will be knackered after playing each other at least once in the lead-up to the final.
At international level, it’s getting tougher and tougher to put in two big performances back-to-back against quality opposition. That intensity only magnifies during a World Cup, where getting knocked out of the tournament is at stake.
Putting in three big performances with a fresh and warmed up New Zealand at the finish line will be almost impossible.
Fortunately, New Zealand is my second favourite team behind Australia, so I’m fairly certain one of my favourite teams will win. But I can’t help feel that it will be a little anti-climactic watching the All Blacks trounce a weary Australia, England or South Africa in the final.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.