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Lemon's winners and losers, AFL Round 17

13th July, 2014
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13th July, 2014
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No doubt: Round 17’s biggest losers were Port Adelaide, followed closely by Port Adelaide, Port Adelaide, and the teal-and-black boys from the Power. Next were any teams historically associated with magpies.

Jesus, what happened?

Earlier this season Port were reminding me of the Cats of 2007 – a young and unproven team with plenty of baggage, surging to the top of the competition with fearless attacking football.

The resemblance ended in Round 15. Losing to Sydney by under a goal at the SCG bore no shame, and Port followed up with a big win over the Western Bulldogs.

But losing to mid-tier teams like Adelaide and Essendon in front of your riotous home fans is another matter, and losing to the Struggletown Tigers in a sealed terrarium is a new depth indeed.

That’s three losses in a row, and four in five starts. A round where the other top sides all got the job done sees Port dumped out of the top four by four points, Geelong gleefully claiming their spot like a house-party opportunist when you stand up for a beer.

The Power’s young brigade might be tiring, and they might be rattled, but I still believe they have the fire to make it back. Their big jobs in the closing rounds are to beat Sydney in Adelaide and Fremantle in Perth. Do that and they might create enough carnage among the top four to break back in.

Richmond’s win means nothing in season terms – they’re even too far off to challenge for ninth – but it will mean a lot for morale. There’s no need to further flog the Tiges about their year, but beating a top side with a fierce performance will lift the July gloom.

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The most significant win this round came from the Bombers. After looking like also-rans, Essendon have bounced back hard, leaping into seventh after what seems an eternity sniffing around the dog-door of the eight.

Essendon destroyed Collingwood, giving them nothing in defence, moving easily through the middle and nailing their chances up forward. They also specialised in making the Magpies look a bit stupid with some of their carnival efforts.

I thought Essendon were done for the season, but their recent form coupled with Gary Ablett’s injury and Collingwood’s freefall means they’re in with a shout. Their trip to Sydney is too big an ask, but their other five games are winnable if the right team shows up.

Hawthorn’s narrow win on Friday night was big too: Adelaide trips are never the easiest, and the Crows are also in good recent touch. With Hawthorn’s injury problems, their loss last week, their tough draw to come, and Brian Lake’s month-long suspension, there was just a hint of vulnerability. They gritted their teeth and stomped it into the dirt.

It wasn’t enough though to stop Fremantle leapfrogging them into second place after a percentage-booster over GWS. That small distinction could be huge come season’s end. If Sydney and Fremantle stay top two, their home finals will make life very difficult for numbers three and four.

In fact, you could make a case that it would be better for Hawthorn or Geelong to miss the top four. Say Hawthorn came fifth, played a home final against an easier side, then played in Melbourne against a fourth-placed Geelong tired from an interstate defeat. Geelong in fourth might have a greater risk of a straight-sets exist, or at least be more worn out once they hit a preliminary final.

North Melbourne won well, consolidating last week’s Hawthorn result to take sixth spot from Collingwood, while the Bulldogs were one of the more impressive winners of the round.

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Playing Gold Coast, in this case in the Cairns heat, is now a tricky fixture, even without Ablett. Most of us expected the Suns to cover for his absence against a lower-ranked side, but the Doggies had a run of 6.3 in the final quarter to blow the hosts away, and get a game clear of Carlton in 13th.

And how big was that loss for the Suns? They’ve been in the top eight since Round 5, and more recently starting to dream of finals. Now their superstar player is in a sling for the season and their dreams could be dissolving in the harsh light of day.

The Coasters are only ninth on percentage, with some easy outings against Brisbane and St Kilda to come, but they can’t afford any more cock-ups. Their Round 22 game against Essendon is shaping as the deal-breaker.

Collingwood could be the side to give the Suns a chance though, with the way they’re freefalling. The Magpies have hung onto eighth for now, but have looked terribly out of sorts in losing four of their last five. The two Adelaide teams are their next opponents, which won’t make life much easier.

The Crows weren’t exactly expected to beat Hawthorn, but it was a big chance with the Hawks a little shaky and Adelaide’s home-ground advantage. A narrow loss was honourable, but the Crows could have taken Collingwood’s spot in the eight had they sealed the chance.

Plenty of machinations, then, in a round that only looked to have three close match-ups. As of next week the blockbusters start rolling in, beginning when Sydney take on Hawthorn at the MCG. The preliminary moves are done. Time for the endgame.

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