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Next weekend’s colossal match between Hawthorn and Sydney will have a massive impact on the premiership chances of both sides.
Sydney can go very close to sewing up a crucial top-two chance while a loss for the Hawks would put them at great risk of spending a lot of time on the road in the finals.
With the Swans and Fremantle their main challengers for a top two spot, the Hawks cannot afford to finish below them.
If they end the regular season outside the top two, Hawthorn could face the massive task of travelling interstate twice in the finals.
While the Hawks have a solid record on the road, trying to defeat the Dockers or Swans in their backyards in September would be remarkably difficult.
Fremantle have won 19 of their past 20 games in Perth while Sydney have turned the SCG in their personal torture chamber.
Hawthorn have an extremely tough run home with matches against league-leaders Sydney, second-placed Fremantle, fourth-placed Geelong and finals contenders Colingwood.
If they drop this weekend’s match, the Swans will be two games ahead of them and effectively out of reach. That would leave Hawthorn very likely needing to upset the Dockers in Perth in Round 21 to avoid a horribly-tricky finals fixture.
So it’s no exaggeration to say that their hopes of raising the premiership cup in 2014 may very well hinge on this weekend’s result.
Sydney, meanwhile, could scarcely be hotter favourites to snare the flag after an astonishing 12-game winning streak. Should they knock off the Hawks at the MCG – a ground where they have struggled over the past decade – the hype would reach an extraordinary level.
But they will have to overcome recent history, with Hawthorn having won six of their past seven games against Sydney at the MCG.
The Swans solitary triumph in that period just happened to be in the one match which really mattered – the 2012 grand final.
Their poor record at the home of football is not just limited to matches against the Hawks. Sydney have won only six of their past 23 games at the ground, although that ledger has been improving in recent times.
This time, however, they have the distinct advantage of fielding a man who is not only intimately familiar with the MCG but who is also the form player in the AFL right now.
Lance Franklin shapes as a nightmare match up for his old side. The big-money recruit has slotted 33 goals from his past eight games.
In Round 8, when he first encountered his former club, Franklin threatened to tear the match apart but was wasteful in front of goal, finishing with two goals and seven behinds from his 21 touches.
Hawthorn’s sole glaring weakness is its lack of quality tall defenders. Whoever they choose to match up on Franklin will need plenty of good fortune.
But despite the risk posed by “Buddy” and Sydney’s raft of potent midfielders, Hawthorn cannot be underestimated. They have been cruelled by injuries this season and have showcased their admirable depth to remain an elite side.
The Hawks will again be without several integral players, including enigmatic small forward Cyril Rioli, the dashing Bradley Hill, and key defenders Brian Lake and Josh Gibson.
Sydney, too, will not be at full strength with champion midfielder Dan Hannebery, spearhead Kurt Tippett and creative defender Rhys Shaw all to miss the match.
It will leave these two sides very closely matched. After this game we will have a clearer idea of who is likely to claim this year’s premiership.