With the Pacers facing a Lance Stephenson issue, the Bulls relying on Derrick Rose being healthy, the Cavs needing to get Kyrie Irving to play defence and work off the ball and the Heat down grading from LeBron James to Luol Deng, the team I’ve got a man crush on out east is the Wizards.
Last year they had a middling offence that rode a top 10 defence into a playoff spot.
But the reason I’m all in on them making the leap this year is Johnathan Hildred Wall Jr, combined with some other stuff from the 11 other guys that will take the court from time to time.
Now to start up front the twin big men give a lot of bonuses. Defensively they are solid rebounders and are intelligent players that play in position. Nene Hilario is underrated on this end as he doesn’t block a lot of shots, but his quick feet shut down driving angles for guards, which can be just as effective in controlling the paint.
Offensively both are competent options in their own right on post ups or in the pick and roll – well at least Nene is when he’s not putting up a free throws at a rate some 10 per cent lower than his career average.
But like most of the positions for the Wiz where the big men giveth, they also take away. Neither player is going to drag their man out to 18 feet, let alone to the three-point line meaning that the Wiz need to work harder to manufacture space.
While they do a good job defensively, neither is the shot blocking beast that can single handedly cover for a blown assignment.
Still they bring more to the table than they take away and will excel with some backup.
The wings are a little weak with 30-35 minutes going to Bradley Beal, who is very much still a work in progress. He is a bomber from deep but also a guy who doesn’t know what mid range shots to pass up and is still learning on defence.
It is critical that Beal develops as a player that can create in his own right in order to give the Wiz a reliable second point of attack on the perimeter.
It is reasonable to think, especially if Paul Pierce can provide a little guidance, that with another year’s experience that Beal will become a little more judicious with his shot selection. This will give him an incredibly big bump in effectiveness. The guy can already shoot, he just needs to know when.
The other 60 or so minutes will go to a platoon of Paul Pierce, Otto Porter, Glen Rice Jr and Martell Webster, with Pierce conceivably playing a little small ball four as well. Again here you are banking a little on youth appreciating.
Both Otto Porter and Glen Rice have given some glimmers of hope, particularly from deep, with decent summer league showings in Vegas. If Porter can hit the high 30 per cents from deep then his smart passing, decent rebounding and long limbed defence are all gravy for the Wizards.
If he can’t hit that deep ball though, he’s going to ride the pine as the Wiz can’t trot out three non shooters.
Pierce is an intriguing fit, while his best years offensively are behind him, his guile at the defensive end more than make up for the departure of Trevor Ariza but I think the wiz will be quietly disappointed if Porter can’t wrest the starting spot from him by year’s end. Either way his strength and positioning on D though will mean that he can carve out valuable minutes at both the three and the four.
Offensively there is, and will probably always remain, a gap in their outside shooting. John Wall just isn’t the dead eye from deep that the other two young point guards are, but as a passer he is in another echelon.
He is arguably the fastest guy with the ball in hand and length that conjures images of Rajon Rondo, Wall has gifts that the other two just weren’t given.
It’s the combination of athleticism and floor vision alongside his change in attitude during the lockout season that take the ceiling off Wall’s upside.
On D, his willingness wins half the battle and while inexperience led to him grading out as a slightly below average defender last year, Portland and Cleveland would kill to have either of their point men as “slightly” below average.
It is perfectly reasonable to expect that experience is all that is lacking from becoming a future all defensive team candidate at the position.
His flaws on offence are also fixable through experience and coaching, we’ve already seen his shot improve as he hit 35 per cent and 80 per cent from the arc and the free throw line last year and his finishing at the rim has improved the past three seasons as he’s slowed down the game.
I’d also expect to see the addition of some crafty floaters and scoop shots in the in between area that will make him a terror when combined with his speed and passing.
Looking at where he already is at relative to the league in those “weak” areas, I firmly believe this is the year those incremental improvements in various areas take him from being an athletic distributor to a plus defender and all around offensive threat. In short a top five player at the league’s most important position.
All these factors combined have me looking at a team which should improve its net margin by around three points per game which you would expect to see log about 54 wins and put them in the hunt for the top of the conference.
So jump aboard the Wizards bandwagon, while there is still room.
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