A two-day incursion into the Alps is over and with a flat stage the next rendezvous for the peloton, the podium contenders can enjoy a day off before the Pyrenees and Bergerac time-trial decides the 101st Tour de France.
With three Pyrenean stages, involving seven major climbs, and three lumpy 54-kilometre time trials, there are still plenty of challenges ahead for Vincenzo Nibali. However, on the evidence of the past two days, he’s going to win this Tour by six or seven minutes.
The Italian’s form and more importantly his consistency is going to render the time trial irrelevant unless he succumbs to an incident. Right now, it seems Nibali is adding a minute to his lead each time the race goes up a hill.
So accepting Nibali’s mask doesn’t slip and he pulls on the final yellow jersey on the Champs Elysees, it’ll mean he’s held the race lead for 19 of the 21 days. A few riders have worn yellow for the entire race, but the last time that happened in 1935 when Belgian Romain Maes lead from start to finish.
Even ‘he who won’t be named’ didn’t wear yellow for 19 of 21 days, so it’ll be an incredible achievement if Nibali does it.
That leaves two podium places to fill in the most open Tour de France in living memory.
If you take off Nibali’s time then only 1:31 separates the next five riders; Alejandro Valverde, Romain Bardet, Thiabaut Pinot, Tejay van Garderen and John Christophe Peraud.
You hesitate to say this but the podium should be filled with riders from this group.
Bauke Mollema is next best placed but he’s another 2:25 down after losing 2:16 to Nibali today.
Nibali aside, the climbs have shown there’s little between the contenders. Everyone has attacked each other, making stages like todays to Risoul totally riveting.
Assuming this continues then the time trial is going to decide the podium.
When you analyse the time trial quality of those riders then there’s some clarity as to what might happen next.
Alejandro Valverde is the current Spanish time trial champion, after surprising himself with victory over a 47-kilometre course. His experience and current second place makes him a solid bet for the podium. The 34 year-old would’ve been closer were it not for a mechanical in the final few kilometres of the climb.
BMC’s Tejay van Garderen was today the most active he’s been all Tour, but he faded a little towards the end and lost another 30 seconds to Nibali.
He won a time trial at last year’s Tour of California but has never excelled at the Tour in this discipline despite finishing fifth overall in 2012. I think this will prevent him climbing the two places he needs to snatch third.
That leaves the three Frenchmen: Bardet, Pinot and Peraud.
Romain Bardet is the youngest at just 23, and he doesn’t appear to have the time trial form to maintain his third position. Last year at the Tour, he finished 118th and 42nd in the TT’s raced on Stages 11 and 17. This year, the AG2R starlet recorded 61st in the Bayern Rundfahrt time trial and 57th at the Paris Nice TT.
Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud is a little better against the clock than Bardet, but again doesn’t look good enough to time trial his way to the podium. At last year’s Tour, he was 19th in Stage 11 but didn’t finish Stage 17 after crashing during a morning recon ride and fracturing his collarbone. Peraud managed fifth in the recent French National time trial championships but in the higher quality Paris-Nice (6second) and Tour de Romandie (20th) his results are nothing startling.
Although Peraud did a great job to match Nibali today on the climb to Risoul, the Italian wasn’t going for the win. His aim was to put more time into Valverde, which he did, so I’m not sure how much you can take from that.
That leaves Thiabaut Pinot, who seems to have recovered from a bad case of descending yips. He’s now reminding us of the promise he showed a couple of years ago when he finished 10th at the 2012 Tour.
Ninth at the Tours de Suisse and de Romandie and 10th at Tirreno Adriatico are all solid results. Pinot has also managed top 20 placings at the 2013 Vuelta Espana TT’s, although at last year’s Tour he only placed 55th in Stage 11 which unlike this year’s course was flat.
Pinot’s improved confidence in 2014 and solid form in the Alps can’t be discounted. He may be only a year older than Bardet but this is his fourth Grand Tour.
For mine he will take the final podium spot behind Nibali and Valverde.
If only it were that easy.
Truth is we can only guess what will happen, but the Stage 20 Time Trial is one to really anticipate.
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