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Welcome to the Pyrenees as Stage 16 sees the Tour de France field tackle the final sets of mountains in this year’s Grand Tour. Join The Roar for live commentary and a blog from 10:00pm AEST.
After the second and final rest day of the Tour de France, the teams head into the Pyrenees in what is going to be the toughest stage so far.
At 237.5 kilometres the stage is the longest on the tour with the final climb of the day set to test every rider who is left in the race.
The climb – Port de Bales – is 11.7 kilometres long with a gradient of 7.7 percent.
The beyond category climb – HC – will be the deciding factor in the stage.
Whoever can climb the mountain first will win the stage because of the descent into the finish at Bagneres De-Luchon.
The first 200 kilometres – before the final climb – will also be decisive as riders get accustomed to riding again after the rest day.
While the terrain isn’t as tough as the other days, the distance, the fatigue, and nature of the stage will make it hard for the riders to gain the rhythm back that they had before the rest day.
The stage starts with two category 4 climbs up the Cote de Fanjeaux and the Cote de Pamiers by the 72 kilometre mark. The field then head toward the Col de Portet-d’Aspet – a category 2 climb – by the 155 kilometre mark.
The final mountain before the big climb of the day will be over the Col des Ares at 176.5 kilometres into the stage. It is a stage perfectly suited to a breakaway today.
If the riders can gain a decent buffer between themselves and the peloton before the final climb, they can survive and win the race.
As we’ve seen on previous mountain climbs, it has all been about surviving from the attacks of Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde and the two young Frenchman, Thibaut Pinot and Romain Bardet.
On Stage 10 and 13, Nibali was too strong, and won the stage. On Stage 14, he was finally beaten when Rafat Majka won the stage for Tinkoff Saxo. Tonight could see a similar scenario.
Nibali doesn’t need to attack anymore. He has a big lead and has shown that he is the best rider in the mountains.
His aim in the Pyrenees is to maintain his gap, and maybe extend it, if he feels comfortable of breaking away from the front again. As a result he may let the breakaway in front of him go off and take the honours as he focuses on maintaining his lead.
This stage is perfect for Tinkoff Saxo and Team Sky. Both teams have lost their big hopes for the general classification and are now trying to gain respect by winning stages.
They both have riders who can climb the mountains well enough to breakaway and win the stage. One of those is Australia’s Michael Rogers.
This stage is perfect for him and I expect him to be given an opportunity to attack and try for the win. He will be one to keep an eye on today.
The other rider to keep an eye on is Alejandro Valverde. The last time the Tour was in this area was in 2012. Valverde was the winner of the stage when it came to this area last time around.
If he is any chance of winning the tour, he needs to attack Nibali and gain some time back. Today could be the day where the Spaniard attacks.
He took 37 seconds off Nibali in the 2012 event. Maybe he could do the same again.
Either way, tonight promises to be a crucial stage in the overall outcome of the Tour De France.
PREDICTION: Valverde to attack the final climb with Nibali to hold on and extend his lead. Look out for Michael Rogers to attack and go for the stage.
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