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An equitable AFL draw is impossible

Roar Guru
23rd July, 2014
39

An issue with considerable weighting in the AFL recently, has been the argument that the fixture list needs to be equitable.

The current set up determines that all teams play 22 games each, once against every team and then five double-ups.

It is a significant issue, highlighted by the survey results published in last week’s AFL Record.

Out of the 23,000 surveyed, 30 per cent said they would address equalisation of the fixture if they were CEO. Another question was if you could change one thing about the game, and 15 per cent replied an equitable fixture.

The rules implemented last year that determines fixtures based on a team’s finishing position can be read here.

Teams like the Fremantle Dockers and Sydney Swans, and even Adelaide, have all had what has been seen as an easy finish to the season. Many teams predicted prior to last round (and earlier) these teams would go undefeated, leaving the Swans and Dockers likely one and two respectively and Adelaide with a high chance of making the finals.

What does it matter when a team plays different sides in the competition? You still need to perform to get the wins, week-in week-out.

There are issues with suggesting any team has an easier draw than another. Firstly, it is an insult to their opposition. This can only be more clearly identified with the St Kilda’s upset win over the Dockers on the weekend.

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Football is a week-to-week basis, hence why form can suddenly mean nothing. If a team shows up expecting to win, even subconsciously as certain Dockers admitted, than they can be beaten. Saints also played their best football of the season.

When someone comments that one team has a more favourable or harder draw than another team, they mostly rely on hindsight. We only know that teams are performing well due to the current season’s results.

Carlton and St Kilda are two teams recording a poor season. Richmond either bombed out this season, or last year was an apparition. Regardless, many would have banked them to be a certain top eight prospect when the fixtures were announced. This shows the issue with arguing a team has an easy fixture from year-to-year. Results change as the club changes their plan for their team, personnel and various de-listings, among other things.

A fellow Roarer rightly identified that these are professional athletes with some of the best fitness coaches in the world. A day’s rest should not make the difference between winning and losing. Collingwood has a very god record in the Anzac Day clashes for example, where they have to back up very quickly. Occasionally there is a difference in the length of breaks between games, but there are no complaints from the clubs – they man up and play.

One of the best cases for arguing draws are difficult to plan, is the example of West Coast from 2010 to 2011. In 2010, they finished as wooden spooners with a mere four wins. Few would have given them much hope in 2011, however they improved to 18 wins the next season.

At the start of the year, everyone would have wanted to draw West Coast twice as they were seen as easy. By the end of the year, most would have been regretting that hope and perhaps realising that every footy game is tough.

Teams vary and can either fall or rise dramatically. Therefore, an equitable draw is highly difficult to produce. Furthermore, the fixture list is complete before the majority of de-listings, drafts and other recruitment opportunities occur.

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For example, after the Swans received Lance Franklin last year they launched into the premiership frame. By Round 4 of this season, they had dropped to over $10. Now they once more sit as firm favourites. Teams performances can change rapidly.

There are other issues other than simply giving each team an equal as their second runner-up. Teams have contracts with the stadiums at which they play that dictate they play a certain number of games at each stadium. When each club’s contract needs to be met it is an overwhelming task. When each club also needs to play 11 home games and 11 away games, the realisation is that it’s an enormous task.

To fixture a perfect draw is impossible. There are too many credentials to be met, and too much analysis that cannot truly tell the tale of a season. Prophecies made as a result of a draw rather than a team’s ability are disgraceful. Effort needs to be put in each week to win.

Spare a thought for the men making the fixture list. It is a difficult task in itself, let alone to produce an equitable fixture.

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