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Revisiting some pre-season Formula One predictions

Roar Rookie
23rd July, 2014
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Lewis Hamilton had reason to be upset with his team in Monaco. (Red Bull Content Pool)
Roar Rookie
23rd July, 2014
1

On the eve of the new Formula One season, I wrote up an article with a few predictions. Now that the German Grand Prix is well and truly in our rearview mirrors, we’re officially into the second half of the season.

At this point of the season, I figured we should get back into that DeLorean and see how much damage we’ve done to the space-time continuum.

For those who haven’t read the pre-season predictions, you can laugh at them here.

Drivers’ Championship: Lewis Hamilton
At the conclusion of the German event, Lewis is second in the Championship and is 14 points behind his German colleague. I am happy to say that I successfully predicted a Hamilton win under the Bahrain moonlight and a popular victory in front of his home fans two races ago.

On the other hand, I said he’d take an opening round victory, which for a time looked like a possibility until engine woes dictated otherwise. I shall know for next time not to take a wrench from the Mercedes garage as a memento.

After the drama of qualifying in the Principality, I had every confidence that my first-lap crash prediction would manifest itself. Fortunately, for the fans’ sake, Lewis did not enact Senna-style revenge on his stable-mate and we were treated to an exciting race.

Verdict: A point for trying.

Constructors’ Championship: Mercedes
At the mid-point of the season, it would appear that the only people who don’t believe Mercedes will win the Constructors’ trophy are Mercedes themselves. They presumably are taking the “not over ’till the fat lady sings” approach.

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Mercedes practically picked up from where Sebastian Vettel left off last season. Six dominant one-two finishes and four front-row lockouts have exceeded my pre-season expectations only half way through the season.

The lowest finishing position for any Mercedes this season was just last weekend, where Lewis was unable to overtake Valtteri Bottas and make it a seventh perfect scoring weekend.

It remains to be seen whether Mercedes can continue their form into next season, or whether the other teams can catch up.

Verdict: Reasonably correct.

Best rookie: Kevin Magnussen
Magnussen started the season strongly, promoted into second after Dan Ricciardo’s disqualification. McLaren has largely been disappointing since then with Magnussen’s best performances after Melbourne being a couple of seventh places at the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone.

Regardless, in ninth currently, he remains the best placed rookie halfway through the season, owing to the uncompetitive nature of Marcus Ericsson’s Caterham and the reliability and inexperience of Dani Kvyat’s Toro Rosso.

That may change, however with the resurgence of Williams and Felipe Massa’s strong performances.

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It’s probably safe to say at this point that the Dane will not be caught.

Verdict: Spot on

Biggest disappointment: Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull
2014 was a season for Sebastian Vettel to prove his doubters wrong by asserting himself in a car that was far and away not the best on the grid. It appears that the reliability issues that plagued Mark Webber have crept across the garage, with Seb forced out of three races from good positions.

His best finishes have been third places in Malaysia and Canada.

He has been disappointing against his teammate too, down in both the qualifying and race battles 6-4 and 7-2 respectively.

Vettel verdict: Getting there

Things did not start well for Red Bull in Australia with a retirement from the four-time World Champion and a subsequent disqualification for the new boy. Fortunately for Red Bull, Mercedes could only bring Nico Rosberg home and thus were able to minimise the damage which proved to be irrelevant in the following races.

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The prolonged woes that I predicted for Red Bull, were, in typical Red Bull fashion, fixed before the season began. They are lucky not to be further behind considering the notorious reliability of the Renault power unit – with the exception of their home race in Austria.

They have their one win, but, for the hopes of an entire nation, I’d be happy for this prediction to be proven wrong and for Dan to grace the top step of the podium a few more times in 2014.

Red Bull verdict: Incorrect

Honourable mention: McLaren and Lotus

Biggest surprise: Williams
After a hugely disappointing 2013, it finally appears as though the Grove-based outfit has got their mojo back. Had it not been for Mercedes’ sheer dominance this season, we very well could have seen Williams’ first win since Pastor Maldonado broke an eight-year drought in 2012, the only real highpoint in a decade of disappointment.

Last season, Williams managed just two points finishes and were a dismal 28 points behind Toro Rosso. Halfway through 2014, however, Williams have produced 121 points, 24 times more than all of last year and a dizzying 116 more than Toro Rosso.

This kind of resurrection is a bright sign for the future of Formula One with only a handful of teams in winning positions in recent seasons. Unfortunately, it does not appear likely that Williams can overhaul Red Bull in the Constructors’ race, but if we are treated to the same level of intensity from the Williams boys, we are in for a fantastic conclusion to the season.

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Biggest controversy: Reliability
There were eight non-finishers in the Australian season opener, five of them forced out with engine-related problems.

The torrential rain did not materialise in Malaysia. Fifteen out of 21 runners made it to the end of the race, only three were victims of the new engines. One retirement in each of the Bahrain and Chinese races meant that from the first four races, there were 10 power unit related retirements, half of my prediction of 20.

Verdict: Half marks

A number of very bold predictions are coming up in the next few races and I think I have every right to feel quietly confident.

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