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With their home ground advantage the Waratahs must start as favourites for Saturday’s semi-final against the Brumbies, and by finishing top of the table the Tahs have a great opportunity to go all the way with a home final.
However, before the Tahs can even dare to think about that possibility, they have to face the Brumbies, who are in good form.
Apart from Dave Dennis, the Tahs have all their key players available. The Brumbies are missing Stephen Moore and David Pocock but Moore is the only one who’s played a significant role this year.
It’s therefore only one key player for each team missing, but they are both very important players.
Israel Folau is a weapon in attack for the Tahs, but Henry Speight is just as much a threat for the Brumbies. Kurtley Beale has been good for the Tahs but while he plays in a different jersey number, Matt Toomua offers a little more for the Brumbies in the way he controls the attack.
I don’t see any major advantage for either team between Nic White and Nick Phipps. Bernard Foley probably offers more for the Waratahs than Christian Lealiifano does the Brumbies, but the battle of the back lines is pretty even.
The Waratahs have an advantage in the forwards. The Brumbies have got a good pack but it’s hard to match up to the likes of Michael Hooper, Wycliff Palu and Jacques Pottgieter in the form they’re in. Will Skelton off the bench is also a bonus.
The Tahs have had the week off but that won’t disadvantage them – they won’t have lost momentum. The Brumbies do have the advantage of playing a tough opponent last week and performing very well. They are on a roll.
The Brumbies also have the advantage of experiencing a semi-final and final last year. Their effort in the semi-final to snatch a win under pressure will help when this match gets tight.
In reviewing the Brumbies match against the Chiefs last week I’ve prepared some analysis of the Brumbies attack and what the Tahs will have to do to shut down Speight.
I’ve also looked at an area the Tahs may seek to exploit in the Brumbies defence.
The set piece battle will be a key determinant of the outcome and in this area the Brumbies have an advantage. Unless the Tahs have significantly improved their lineout over the last fortnight, they could run into trouble.
The scrum battle will be very competitive. Ben Alexander has had Benn Robinson’s measure since the introduction for the new scrummaging laws. Sekope Kepu has improved his scrummaging this year but Scott Sio is an attacking loosehead who will test Kepu.
The Tahs have an advantage at hooker, with Tatafu Polota-Nau offering more than Josh Mann-Rea for the Brumbies.
The tactics of each team will be important. We know what the Tahs bring to the party but knowing what’s coming and doing something about it are different things.
I won’t be surprised if the Brumbies try to mix their game plan up in an attempt to throw the Tahs off. We’ll see a very aggressive rush defence from the Brumbies led by Toomua, who will be on a mission to hammer Beale and stop the ball moving wide.
I expect the Tahs will make a bright start but the Brumbies will stay in the contest and come back in the second half. However, the Tahs will finish the stronger and host the final next weekend.