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It never ceases to amaze how the season finds a way to whittle itself to a fine point.
Only a few weeks ago we were singing the praises of a cluster of up to seven or even eight sides as being well and truly in the fabled ‘mix’. One of the most competitive seasons ever, we barked. Was this to be the year someone would win from fifth or sixth? Plenty gave air to that hoary old chestnut.
But now the mantle of expectation is carried by just two heavyweights: Sydney and Hawthorn.
Sydney is a consummate footballing machine. There is no weakness in the Swans’ line up. Argue all you like about the morality of their methodology, the fact remains that they’ve shored up an impeccable forward set up. Their defence is as miserly as it is physically imposing.
Ruck? No Mumford, no worries. Before tweaking a hammy, Tom Derycx was a capable revelation. All the while Mike Pyke has remained surprising, lively and vital. And the Swans midfield is simply dripping with riches – size, skill, courage and strength. Further afield Shaw brings defensive run. Jetta gives outside gallop further up the ground. It’s often said that it’s the bit players that exemplify a team’s claim to excellence. Sydney is a case in point. Nick Smith, Jake Lloyd, Harry Cunningham, and Dane Rampe have been excellent.
For now, at least, the Swans circa 2014 are as complete as any team we’ve seen since threepeat Brisbane.
The Hawks have weathered a storm. Injury has been rife, an ill coach didn’t help either, and yet they’ve won often enough to maintain a lofty rung. No one would have blinked if the Hawks linked a chain of losses. But they haven’t.
Their system has maintained, their uninjured (or should I say less injured) stars have stood tall – Burgoyne, Hodge and Roughead particularly. Breust, Smith, Puopolo and Gunston too. Now the Hawks sit an impressive second when plenty would have had them out of the four and a likely first-week-of-finals casualty.
But now healed bodies return. In weird way list management has been enforced upon them. Will it all just go ‘click’? We’ll see.
And on Saturday night we get to see both flex a little a pre-finals muscle.
It will be an intriguing battle and most likely a preview of something larger.
Equally intriguing is what is happening beneath these two clear standout sides. Not because of what might happen. More because of what probably won’t.
Geelong looks tired. Much has been made of the Cats youth, but it’s the veteran Cattery who make the kittens in their care look the part. In recent weeks there’s been a noticeable lethargy in play. Kelly, Johnson, Lonergan, Taylor, Enright et al are extraordinary athletes, but time catches up. They’ve been part of an extraordinarily gifted and daring side, but they are not the same as what they once were.
Selwood, commendably, remains Selwood, and Duncan and Guthrie have their moments. But moments are not enough, and when older, steadier hands have less to give, it shows. Only two of the Cats top disposal gatherers (Duncan and Christensen) could be classed as up and comers. It’s a pretty telling crystal ball statistic. And last week GWS all but ran them down. Perhaps it was a pretty telling crystal ball game.
What then of Fremantle?
Plenty will argue the Dockers shock loss to St Kilda last weekend was just a blip on an otherwise solid build towards September. On balance I beg to differ.
The Dockers’ system was shown up as flawed. Pace and unbridled effort broke down the much vaunted purple wall. The Saints ran at the Dockers and the Dockers had nowhere to go. If sides can kick a few early, Freo’s own inability to score might just catch them out. In a sense it was this that saw when Fremantle fell short in last year’s decider.
Sandilands and Ballantyne were big outs, of course. The former is a formidable presence, and the latter brings team-lifting zeal. But would they have plugged the leaks? With Mundy, Fyfe, Pavlich, McPharlin and Mayne still on the park, there was plenty of enviable A grade talent still playing.
The Freo grind requires so much effort. Ross Lyon-era St Kilda ran out of gas eventually. Are the Dockers following suit? Does there come a point in time when it’s all just too bloody hard? Or will a shock loss be Fremantle’s making; a shot in the arm at just the right time?
North Melbourne can be exhilaratingly brilliant (see Hawthorn). They can also be almost intolerably shoddy (see Brisbane and Carlton). It’s as pointless trying to find a reason for such duplicity as it is to wring your hands and scream to the heavens in frustration. In the end it simply is what it is.
There’s good Kangas and bad Kangas and never the twain shall meet. So what if North smack down a more fancied first week finals opponent? There’ll always be the week after to bring them crashing down. Roos faithful, I feel your pain. It’s excruciating.
And what is with Collingwood? Are they building a list, or are they hanging in there for the sake of remaining a competitive presence? I can’t really tell. Does the enigmatic Swanny care enough? Should a club rely on ambivalence? Is Cloke for real or not? Is that defence a little threadbare? If not the brilliant Pendlebury, then who? The Pies sit eighth with a hell of a run home and the all the below-the-liners breathing down their neck. Their season could well sag badly.
Port Adelaide are where the Pies might find themselves. They were a standout early with their intoxicating gut-runnery, but now, alas, the spark is gone. There’s relatively few injury worries, and yet just two from their last five have left them facing tough season end in which no game is a gimme.
Then there’s Essendon. Paradoxically, at sixth, they’re looking as good as anyone, at least in theory. But the recent wins have been narrow. They’ve had a few like that this year. Nine of the Bombers’ victories have been by fifteen or less.
It’s a testament to Essendon’s ability to have a real dip at a time when ASADA-related torment could have sunk them, but it doesn’t really fill a tipsters heart with confidence, especially given the Bombers haven’t beaten any of the sides presently above them on the ladder beyond a gutsy (if fortunate) recent fall over the line against Port and a victory over North Melbourne way back in Round 1.
What Adelaide and Gold Coast would give for a few of Essendon’s pinched victories at this late stage of the year…
The Crows can no longer afford to lose, you’d reckon. The Suns destiny remains far more controllable, but there’s little leeway. A QClash test at the Gabba awaits. The Gold Coast were flat against the Dogs a fortnight back. Ablett or not, a week off should hold them in good stead. But the Lions are no slouches. A grisly competitiveness has emerged this year, especially at home. They won’t roll over. The Suns will be edgy going in, but win this and they have the Saints and Port at home separated by an away game against the Blues. Their last round is against Essendon. Perhaps that is the game that will decide their fate?
Regardless, though, it’s the Swans and Hawks who require toppling.
Jump a hurdle, and Everest awaits.
Good luck with that.
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