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By the stats, it's the Waratahs

24th July, 2014
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Waratah Alofa Alofa crossed for an early try against the Brumbies (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Expert
24th July, 2014
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In sport, 85-90 per cent of the time, stats tell the true story. But every now and again a stat like Don Bradman’s surfaces, requiring just four runs at the Oval in his final Test to have a career Test batting average of 100.

If betting was around at the time, you could have easily got 100-1 on the Don being bowled by a journeyman leggie like Eric Hollies, who only played 13 Tests to capture 44 wickets at 30.27.

But the Don was by far the biggest scalp of his entire career.

So the Don’s average is 99.94, which is probably an even bigger talking point that if it was 100.

So how do the stats line-up for tomorrow night in the all-Australian Super Rugby semi at Allianz between the Waratahs and the Brumbies? In their two home-and-away games in regulation, the aggregate is Waratahs won 63-36, scoring seven tries to three.

The fairest comparison between the two teams is how they performed in the Australian conference. The Waratahs finished on top with 58 points, the Brumbies second with 45.

Daylight.

And it’s much the same pattern in the eight Australian Conference games both teams played.

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The Waratahs scored 270 points, the Brumbies 211.

The Waratahs let in 120 points, the Brumbies 190.

The Waratahs scored 32 tries, the Brumbies 26.

The Waratahs let in 12 tries, the Brumbies 21.

On the overall table, the Waratahs finished first for the first time, the Brumbies fourth.

The Waratahs scored a tournament-high 481 points, the Brumbies 412.

The Waratahs let in 272 points, the fewest in the competition, the Brumbies 378.

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The Waratahs led the points difference with plus-209, the Brumbies plus-34.

The Waratahs earned 10 bonus points, again top of the table. the Brumbies five.

So if the stats hold good come Saturday night, the Waratahs are a shoe-in. But we all know it will be a lot closer than that, and a lot will depend on what strategy Brumbies coach Steve Larkham adopts.

We know the Waratahs will stick to ball-in-hand, but Larkham is just as likely to follow suit as he is to kick the cover off the ball.

If Larkham selects the boot, the Waratahs will win by the length of the straight. You don’t give the likes of Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley and Adam Ashley-Cooper all that room to move without paying on the scoreboard.

So ball-in-hand must be Larkham’s number one priority, and if that’s the case, Saturday night will showcase the best of Australian rugby entertainment, and have Wallaby coach Ewen McKenzie licking his lips in anticipation for the opening round of the Rugby Championship against the All Blacks at ANZ, and the return bout the following week at Eden Park.

But first things first.

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Even in the head-to-heads the Waratahs have the advantage over the Brumbies.

The all-Wallaby front row of Benn Robinson, Tatafu Polota-Nau, and Sekope Kepu.

The all international locks of former Springbok Jacques Potgeiter and former Wallaby Kane Douglas, with Wallaby behemoth Will Skelton on the bench

And the Wallaby backrow of Michael Hooper, Stephen Hoiles, and Wycliff Palu – that eight up against six Wallaby Brumbies led by Ben Mowen, Scott Fardy, Sam Carter, Ben Alexander, and Scott Sio.

Both backlines are littered with Wallabies.

The Waratahs will have Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Kurtley Beale, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Ron Horne, and Israel Folua – only winger Alofa Alofa has yet to wear gold.

The Brumbies will have Nic White, Matt Toomua, Christian Lealiifano. Tevita Kuridrani, Jesse Mogg, and Wallaby winger-in-waiting Henry Speight, who will be eligible in September.

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Only Robbie Coleman has yet to wear gold.

A blockbuster, bring it on. And may the stats win.

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