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And then there were four: Super Rugby semi-finals preview

25th July, 2014
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Michael Hooper for the Waratahs. The Australian sides look in trouble in Super Rugby 2017. (Source: AJF Photography)
Roar Guru
25th July, 2014
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As the finals of the Super Rugby season start to heat up, we are left with the best team of each conference of 2014: the Waratahs, Crusaders and Sharks.

The ‘almost there’ Brumbies are the fourth team to make the top four, and face arguably the biggest challenge of all.

First of all, let’s look at the first game between two teams of contrasting styles: the Crusaders and the Sharks.

The Crusaders started the season as a mixed bag, the lack of a quality goal kicker costing them a fair bit in the opening rounds.

The development of Nemani Nadolo, improvement and consistency of Colin Slade and the return of All Black stalwarts Dan Carter – in the unfamiliar 12 jersey – Richie McCaw and Kieran Read have seen them regain the top spot in New Zealand after having conceded it to the Chiefs for the last two seasons.

The Sharks have faced some similar problems with injuries to star fly half Patrick Lambie, who is having his first start for the Durban outfit in months. The Sharks started the season in near-perfect fashion, demolishing opposition with the reliable boot of Frans Steyn and the dominant forward pack that has seen few opposition actually rattle them.

Unfortunately, their season was dismantled by the interruption of the June Test series, coming back from the break with key losses to beatable opposition. They do however have reason to be confident, being the only team to have beaten both the Waratahs and the Crusaders this season. This is an amazing feat given the circumstances of the Crusaders game that we all remember.

Coming into the semi, you’d have to say the Crusaders are in better form and are favourites to win at home this time around.

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The Sharks have had to endure mighty travel after a near upset to the up-and-down Highlanders. The Sharks will however come in with confidence having already won at this location this season, knowing the Crusaders haven’t played a game in two weeks, potentially slowing down their momentum.

The Crusaders have too much nous in their back row and a backline with more skill and practice in scoring tries. Crusaders by 8.

The second semi-final is the game of the round. It is the first semi final that features two Australian teams since the same two sides met in 2002, which ended in a 51-10 shellacking by the Brumbies.

If you’re thinking that a similar result is likely to ensue this weekend, think again. You don’t need me to remind you that the Waratahs are the leaders of nearly every important offensive and defensive statistic this season, and it hasn’t been by luck.

The perennial under-achievers of Super Rugby, the Waratahs have for the last few years boasted one of the best teams on paper, and have shown glimpses of brilliance, but have never had consistency to make it into the top four.

This year they have tossed all that aside and delivered one of the most complete performances. It helps with 14 of the 15 starting players having played for their national team, but the dramatic improvement of the Phipps-Foley-Beale link and the continuous rise of superstar Israel Folau are the reasons they have dominated this season.

This is not to say the Brumbies don’t have a serious counter. Their backline heavily make up the Wallabies squad and with Sam Carter and Ben Mowen leading one of the best lineouts in the competition, they pose a great threat to what has been identified as the Waratahs biggest weakness.

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There is only one match-up which doesn’t have Wallabies against each other, that of Waratah Alofa Alofa and Brumby Robbie Coleman.

I propose the battle will be won in the forwards, seeing which side can turnover more ball, disrupt in the lineout and scrum and dent the backline with hit ups.

Carter and Mowen will dominate lineouts, but the Waratahs should see the likes of Jacques Potgieter, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Wycliff Palu and Will Skelton tear through the middle. Waratahs by 12.

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