Earlier this year I wrote an article on how this year’s Formula One championship is similar to the 2009 championship, which was won by Jenson Button.
With the halfway mark of the championship arriving last weekend, at the German Grand Prix, I thought it would be ideal to revisit that article, and see if what happened in 2009 is happening this year.
Already this year some things are similar to the 2009 season.
Force India gained a podium this year as they did in 2009 and Mercedes dominated just like they did in 2009 as Brawn GP. I also predicted – using the 2009 form guide – some things that could happen in 2014.
After ten races in the championship, let’s see how these predictions are faring.
The Red Bull rookie beats the established driver in the team – TICK
In 2009 Sebastian Vettel defeated Mark Webber in his first season as a Red Bull driver. After 10 rounds in the 2014 season, Dan Ricciardo is doing the same to his established teammate.
Ricciardo is currently third in the standings and is almost a race clear of his teammate. He has also beaten him in seven of the 10 races this season. The Aussie is looking good to beat Vettel in his first year at Red Bull.
A British driver wins the Formula One Championship
In 2009 Jenson Button won the World Championship for Brawn racing, while at the half way point of the season the championship is down to Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton for Mercedes.
Hamilton, being a British driver, is the best bet of making this prediction true. He is only 14 points behind but faces a tough task in tracking those points down against his teammate. This is still plausible but it will require Hamilton to dominate the next few races in order for him to win.
McLaren wins a race – FAIL AND UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN
In 2009 McLaren won races in Hungary and Singapore, but with the performances of McLaren they are unlikely to do that this year. Apart from Kevin Magnussen’s second at the Australian Grand Prix, they have not been good enough to win a race this year. Their only chance is if others fall out of contention in races. I can’t see it happening.
Ferrari and Red Bull improve and take the fight to Mercedes
In 2009 both Red Bull and Ferrari came back in the season to give Brawn a fright in the World Championship. So far in 2014, both teams have struggled to match it with the dominant Mercedes team.
Red Bull is one of only two teams to have really taken it to Mercedes. Their win in the Canadian Grand Prix is the only one not to be won by a Mercedes driver. This only came about at the demise of Mercedes, as both drivers ran into trouble during the race.
In terms of outright pace, Red Bull is improving, but still a distance from Mercedes on the track. Ferrari is worse and has really struggled this year. The Prancing Horse have only secured one podium finish this year and have been outclassed by Williams, who have moved to third in the manufacturer’s championship.
I expect both teams to improve more in 2014 but not at the same level as they did in 2009 when both teams won races.
An Australian wins the first race of his career – TICK
In 2009 Mark Webber won his first race at the German Grand Prix. In 2014 Australia’s Dan Ricciardo repeated the feat as he won the Canadian Grand Prix. Taking advantage of the situation around him the Red Bull driver beat home Nico Rosberg, Felipe Massa and Sergio Perez to win his first ever Grand Prix.
All teams score a point in the Formula One World Championship
In 2009, for the first time since 2005, all teams scored a point in the Formula One World Championship. In 2014, after 10 rounds of the championship, eight teams have scored points in the championship.
At the Monaco Grand Prix Marussia scored their first ever points in F1 with a 9th placed finish. Only two teams – Caterham and Sauber – need to score points for this to come true. Both have finished in 11th position this year and both have had chances to score points. At some stage both teams will have another chance to be in the points. Time will tell if both teams can take it.
Eight teams secure a podium in a Grand Prix over the season – FAIL
In 2009 eight teams secured a podium finish over the season. After ten rounds of the championship there have been six manufacturers on the podium with Mercedes, Red Bull, Force India, Williams, Ferrari and McLaren tasting success.
This leaves just Sauber, Lotus, Toro Rosso, Caterham and Marussia in contention to bring the total to eight, but I can’t see that happening this year. Neither team has recorded a top six finish in the first ten rounds.
Teams finished first and second in eight races over the season – TICK
In 2009, Red Bull and Brawn had eight 1-2 finishes. In 2014 that total is already at six, with Mercedes dominating the championship. The only times Mercedes have not recorded a 1-2 finish has been when the team ran into trouble. If both drivers don’t have mechanical or qualifying issues, then they will record more 1-2 finishes. This will happen comfortably over the season.
After ten races of the season the 2014 championship has continued to look like the 2009 season in so many ways. Let’s hope the last nine races continue from the same level of quality as the first ten.
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