The Roar
The Roar

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Lemon's winners and losers, AFL Round 18.2

27th July, 2014
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Expert
27th July, 2014
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With five rounds to go, the top four remains up for grabs. The rest of the top eight remains up for grabs. The wooden spoon is up for grabs. It’s open season.

First I have to express my admiration for Hawthorn. It’s not just that they had the biggest win of the weekend, downing ladder-leaders Sydney by 10 points in a brutal beauty of a match.

It’s that this season has thrown everything in the Hawks’ way, yet every time they’ve somehow found a way through.

Their star attraction defected to their most dangerous opponent. They’ve lost key players to injury at regular intervals. They’ve played an undersized defence for most of the year.

They’ve had a hard draw, they lost their coach for several weeks to a disease that sounded like a Melrose Place subplot, and they had the distracting aftermath of a player going full ‘Nam flashback and trying to choke an opponent.

And yet they’ve won 13 from 17 starts, and if they’d kicked three more goals this season their percentage would have them in top spot.

Saturday’s win against Sydney was massive for Hawthorn’s chances of staying that high. With three easier games in their last five, their big challenges will be back-to-back against Fremantle in Perth and bogey side Geelong at the MCG.

The third-placed Cats are level on points, while Fremantle is one win behind in fourth. Those three sides all play each other in the last three rounds, and that little round-robin will decide who finishes second.

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Adelaide’s win over Collingwood won’t shape a premiership tilt, but was nearly as big. After lurking on the frustrating fringe for months, Adelaide finally shot into the top eight for the first time this year, directly at the Magpies’ expense.

With their lamentable start to the year well behind them, Adelaide are in the best form of the lower-ranked finals contenders. Sides above them have abdicated or are wavering.

Winning at the MCG is always a big ask for interstate teams, especially with a hostile black-and-white crowd against you, but the Crows did it with aplomb. They won with direct, hard-edged football that isolated their key forwards.

After a middling year thus far Tex Walker dominated late in the game. A Pies comeback and the attendant crowd fanaticism were shrugged off, the cauldron withstood. It was a big test, and the Crows passed with distinction.

With at least four of their last five well within their capabilities, the Crows should be able to hold eighth spot. If anyone above them falters, there’s a chance to climb higher.

The Brisbane Lions’ win was also significant, partly for just being a Brisbane Lions win and partly its style. With Brisbane shooting for five wins in the season and Gold Coast shooting for finals, there was no doubt who was tipped.

Yet the Lions destroyed the Suns in one of the most lopsided starts to a game of football you’ll ever see. As they streamed forward and rained goals at will, the margin was 41 points by quarter time, and out to 56 in the second before the Suns pegged the odd one back.

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It’s worth revisiting a quarter-time disposal count that read 125-35, and the fact that Gold Coast took one mark in that quarter of football. The style more than the result made this the biggest loss of the round. We wondered about their future without Ablett, but right now it looks non-existent.

You couldn’t ask for an easier road trip than driving 45 minutes to play a side that has spent the season mired at the foot of the ladder. Yet with a finals spot beckoning the Suns bombed to 10th. High hopes look set to fade to disappointment.

The Magpies have bombed too, down to ninth a few weeks after being talked of as a top-four contender. They’ve lost five of their last six games, and with Adelaide’s encouragement finally abdicated their top-eight spot.

It has been perplexing: they’re hardly a poor side, they still have their great midfield core, and most of their losses have been narrow or at least competitive. Somehow small failures of composure have kept bringing them unstuck.

Now in ninth, level on points with Adelaide and Gold Coast, they need to win more games than either in the next few weeks. It’s a big ask for the Magpies, facing Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and trips to play West Coast and GWS.

The weekend’s loss is unlikely to hurt the Swans though. For the moment it brings them back to the pack: 52 points to each of the top three. But I’d still tip Sydney to comfortably finish top.

Their next fortnight is the tricky bit: you’d normally pencil them in for a home win against a marginal finals side like Essendon, but the Swans will be coming off a six-day break and the Dons from 12.

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Then there’s a trip to Port at the Adelaide Oval, and even though the teal brigade have slipped in recent weeks, they’re still fifth on the ladder with a very good side.

Presuming Sydney can negotiate these obstacles, their final three games should be a tune-up cruise while the other top sides beat several shades of hell out of each other. Falter, and the shuffle will continue.

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