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It is a sign of a very good side that they can play poorly by their high standards, especially in the set pieces, and still win a Super Rugby semi-final 26-8. The Waratahs did this against the Brumbies on Saturday night.
The margin of victory might have been flattering, but the result showed that this season’s Waratahs have the right stuff for finals rugby.
A poll taken during the Fox Sports broadcast of the match indicated that only 23 per cent of viewers believed neither the Brumbies or the Waratahs could defeat the Crusaders, on the evidence of their overwhelming victory against the toothless Sharks, in the final next Saturday.
It is a mistake to write the Waratahs off after the semi-final. They provided enough resilience under pressure and then a terrific break-out try right at the end, which was scored by Bernard Foley after a smashing run from Will Skelton, to show that the Crusaders will have to earn any victory next week.
The Waratahs essentially defeated the Brumbies with their defence, however. To those of us who follow the statistics this will not come as a surprise. The Opta Facts before the match indicated that the Waratahs missed fewer tackles a game (14.5) than any other side. What’s more, the tackles they make are often bell-ringers, as Michael Hooper demonstrated several times.
Despite taking a hiding on territory, the Waratahs kicked 15 times, which was less than their average of 16.3 a game. In other words, they kept on playing their ball-in-hand game, even though it wasn’t really until the end of the game that they got rewarded for this.
Again, it is not easy to stick to enterprising rugby when you are under pressure. The pressure for the Waratahs came from a dicey lineout and an only slightly less dicey scrum. The flow of good possession from set pieces and, therefore, a platform to run the ball was denied the Waratahs most of the game.
But as they showed with their last try, the Waratahs have the ability to score ensemble tries from anywhere on the field. That makes them very dangerous opponents in a home final.
The Waratahs also have conceded fewer points a game (17) than any other side. And some of the try-line defence against the Brumbies was outstanding.
The Brumbies had a really dumb game plan. To begin with, they hadn’t decided whether to run the ball back from Waratahs kicks or to kick the ball back.
You could see this lack of clarity every time Jesse Mogg got the ball. Initially he kicked, often without running the ball back at all. The consequence of this was that the Waratahs were getting the ball back well outside their 22 with a chance to run it.
Then occasionally Mogg decided to run. But there was not much conviction or method in his running. The result was that he was easily tackled and the ball was turned over. The Brumbies were then put on the back foot and gave away penalties that were three times converted into points.
And what was the point of virtually ignoring that Henry Speight was on the field for the first 25 minutes of play? Speight was finally brought into play then and was instrumental in setting up his own try, with a bust through the heart of the Waratahs defence.
When you have someone as powerful and effective in his running as Speight is, give him the ball! Set up plays where he is given the ball. The Crusaders did this brilliantly with their big man Nemani Nadolo, who must have had a dozen touches.
Ignoring Speight was compounded by Ben Mowen’s refusal to shoot for easy penalties. I can understand that Christian Lealiifano is in terrible kicking form, and his miss from virtually in front just after halftime when the Waratahs were leading 11-8 was horrible. But surely he would have kicked half of the eight penalties turned down.
A try was scored from one of the penalties that was kicked to touch near the Waratahs try line, and if some penalties had been kicked, others might not have been given. But it is the principle that matters. In finals rugby, points are trumps. And if easy points are on offer, take them.
There is another aspect to this, too. If kickable penalties are not turned into points, the opposition becomes bolder with taking its own chances on defence. The Waratahs played pretty close to the offside line most of the match. They knew if they were penalised that the Brumbies wouldn’t take the automatic points, but give them a chance to contest a lineout and prevent a score that way.
Before the semi-final, Mowen said the Brumbies deserved to win the Super Rugby title. “That’s the message we have been pushing,” he said. “We have to make things happen.”
Well, the best way to make things happen in a one-off rugby match is to rack up points.
Someone should tell this to Jake White, too. Readers of The Roar will know I have been critical of the Jakeball method. It doesn’t make any sense to restrict your points scoring to penalty goals in the main and the occasional try. It says that the result depends not on how well you play, but on decisions made by the referee and the play of your opponents.
If your forwards can’t force penalties and if you miss a some, like Patrick Lambie’s miss just before halftime against the Crusaders, then you are going to lose.
Admittedly the Crusaders turned in their best performance in years. Their set pieces were very solid. Their defence was tight and abrasive. And their attack had penetration, especially with the tactic of using the inside-ball, to set up raids down the middle of the field.
But the Sharks played like zombies, as if they didn’t believe that Jakeball could win it for them. The few times they ran the ball, once memorably from their own try line, they reduced the Crusaders defence to tatters and could easily have scored length-of-field tries.
Incidentally, this inability by the Crusaders to stop the flow of these break-outs should see the Waratahs attempt their own break-outs next week.
A major fault with the Crusaders in the Todd Blackadder era has been that the ball has been moved from one side of the field to the other until the attack runs out of space or the opposition forces a turnover. There has not been an evolution of the Crusaders style that was created by Robbie Deans in the years since he left. But, finally, the coaching staff seems to have worked out how to make the Deans ensemble passing game work, six years after he left the Crusaders for golden pastures.
The addition of Nemani Nadolo this season has given the backline a big player who can break the defensive line. Kieran Read also provides bulk and pace out wide, as he showed when he scored the Crusaders first try. And the inside ball kept the Sharks defence honest by forcing them to stay square rather than drifting across to snuff out the wide attacks.
The Sharks led the Super Rugby tournament in lineout steals. It was a smart play by the Crusaders to do a new trick lineout play, involving Richie McCaw, first up. The Sharks seemed to be bewildered with the impertinence of this. The strut went out of their play and they quickly adopted the demeanour of men facing an execution, which they were.
The Sharks are the Spartans of rugby.
The Spartans built a formidable war reputation by having precise, unchanging and uncomplicated battle tactics.
The Athenians (whom I identify with because my mother was an Athenian) could defeat the Spartans by changing the usual rules of warfare and presenting them with formations and tactics that were not in the manuals of the time.
The Waratahs and the Crusaders are the Athenians of rugby. There is some flair and the unexpected about their play. They come up with new tactics and plays and place high reliance on individual brilliance meshing with the ensemble needs of the side.
So we have the two Israels, Folau and Dagg, being brilliant at fullback. The Kurtley Beale/Dan Carter and Bernard Foley/Colin Slade confrontations in the five-eighths. Two smart (Alec?) and cocky halves, in Nick Phipps and Andy Ellis. The two inspirational loose forwards, Michael Hooper and Richie McCaw (still a great player). And the big runners Will Skelton and Kieran Read.
The Waratahs last defeated the Crusaders in 2004. They have lost the last 11 matches to them. I would disregard these facts. For this is far and away the best Waratahs side NSW has produced since Super Rugby started in 1996.
Like the Crusaders, they are a complete side. Their set play is not as solid as that of the Crusaders, but I would argue they have far more flair in the backs, especially if they can unleash Folau.
So where does that leave us? With a terrific final in prospect between two splendid and well-coached teams.
And the winner? The 2014 Super Rugby is being played next week. It isn’t being played 10 years ago, or even a week ago. One of my ancestors, the philosopher Heraclitus, put all this in context when he noted: “You never step into the same river twice.” Change is the only constant in life.
Todd Blackadder has never coached a winning Super Rugby side, even though the Crusaders franchise has won seven titles. The Waratahs have never won a Super Rugby title. One of these facts is going be changed. But which one?