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Vincenzo Nibali: A champion we can believe in

Vincenzo Nibali deserves more support from his team. (Photo: Team Sky)
Roar Guru
27th July, 2014
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On Sunday evening Vincenzo Nibali will ride into Paris as the first Italian champion of the Tour de France since the late Marco Pantani in 1998. It’s a result that, although not too surprising, few had predicted before the race.

This was because of two sizeable obstacles in Nibali’s path.

The obstacles in question were Christopher Froome, the defending champion, and Alberto Contador, the two-time winner of the race widely considered one of the best stage racers of his generation.

However, by Stage 10, the obstacles were completely removed. To win the Tour de France, as well as traversing mountains, crosswinds, and this year, cobblestones, you have to stay upright, something both Froome and Contador couldn’t manage.

The mishaps to befall his competitors meant the path was left open for Nibali, and since then he has capitalised, and he will ride into Paris with a lead of more than seven minutes, something not seen since Jan Ullrich’s drugged-up win in 1997.

Nibali’s margin of victory has caused concern in some cycling circles. Seven minutes is a large margin to win a bike race by, and if it were any other year I would be sharing the concerns of some fans and commentators.

However, there are three main reasons we can believe in Vincenzo Nibali.

The first is the fact that the opposition ‘The Shark’ has faced this year is not up to the usual standard of opposition a Tour winner usually faces. In addition to Contador and Froome’s early exits, Andrew Talansky also hasn’t made it to Paris, and the man who has finished second this year, Jean-Christophe Peraud, had a previous best finish of 10th.

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This is not meant in disrespect to Peraud, finishing second in the Tour de France is incredibly difficult, and Peraud has clearly had a brilliant three weeks racing. But compare him to runners-up of previous years, Andy Schleck, Christopher Froome and Nairo Quintana, and there’s a clear gulf in pedigree.

Now the debate as to whether Nibali would have beaten Contador and Froome will go on forever. We will never know, but it is clear that Nibali has easily beaten the opposition to deservedly win in Paris, something which many would argue, on top form, he really should.

Another reason to believe is a point that directly contradicts the concerns of some when they saw the way Vincenzo Nibali dominated the Hautacam. Nibali’s time up the fabled Pyrenean climb was the 26th fastest in Tour history, well behind the times of the climb when the race visited in 1994 and 1996.

Now, we cannot draw conclusions from one set of times. As David Walsh outlined in his most recent book Inside Team Sky, you have many other factors that affect the time rather than just whether the rider was doping or not, for example, headwinds, or when in the stage the climb comes.

However, the fact that after a tough, mountainous Tour Nibali didn’t eclipse the times of known dopers can only be a good thing.

The final reason to believe is the man himself. Nibali has always been a consistently high finisher in Grand Tours, and so it should be no real surprise that the sixth man in history to win all three is Vincenzo. Although his season so far had been less than stellar, Nibali has always remained confident about the Tour, and it has turned out his confidence was not misplaced.

It’s always understandable that when a rider dominates a race, given cycling’s past, we assume the worst. However, with Nibali, I believe we have a man we can put our faith in, and that this victory will stand the test of time, to use 2012 champion Bradley Wiggins’ oft-repeated phrase.

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After all, if we can’t put our faith in any rider that wins a bike race, what’s the point in watching?

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