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The Waratahs are hosting the Crusaders in what is shaping to be a sorely mismatched Super Rugby final this weekend.
One of these teams has been playing a sensational style of rugby that could be the blue-print for taking the game forward into the next decade. The other side is the Crusaders.
I never thought it possible to say those last two sentences together.
No other side could have survived Saturday night’s onslaught at the hands of a reinvigorated Brumbies side. I was impressed by the Brumbies’ ability to dominate field position but I was blown away with how the Waratahs remained in control of the game through almost impenetrable defence.
The Tahs are one of the best ever defensive sides in Super Rugby. Yet they are also one of the greatest attacking outfits at the same time. It is not surprising they have achieved the best points difference in the history of the competition.
The Waratahs have four metre-gaining forwards who are going to give the Crusaders a shellacking. The Crusaders have only Kieran Read who can return the fire.
From the regular season stats on Fox Sports: Read averaged 60 run metres per 80 minutes this season. Wycliff Palu averaged almost as much, 58 run metres per 80 minutes. However Palu made more than twice as many tackle busts (18) as Read (7) without playing a great deal more minutes, and he is producing quality offloads. Plus Palu does his work much tighter, whereas Read makes his metres out wider.
Richie McCaw is a fantastic player, he makes a lot of tackles and does more than his fair share at the breakdown. But so does Michael Hooper.
The difference is Hooper averaged 52 run metres per 80 minutes with 36 season tackle busts this year. McCaw averaged exactly half that, 26 run metres, with 3 season tackle busts. McCaw played less than half the minutes of Hooper, but he would have had to have made 500 per cent more tackle busts just to break even.
It starts to get worse when you consider that Palu and Hooper aren’t even the premier metre gainers of the Waratahs pack. Jacques Poitgeter averaged a mammoth 65 run metres per 80 minutes this year, and Will Skelton averaged 69. The next best for the Crusaders is Matt Todd, who averaged 36 run metres.
They Tahs also have four world class backs who can do the same out wide.
Israel Folau is averaging 108 run metres per 80 minutes, including 46 tackle busts and 11 line-breaks. In comparison his opposite, Israel Dagg, averaged 59 run metres, made 26 tackle busts and 8 line-breaks from a lot more minutes on the field. When you consider Dagg has scored one try to Folau’s 12, we can put to bed any notion that Dagg is Folau’s equal.
Adam Ashley-Cooper averaged a fantastic 75 run metres per 80 minutes, made 52 tackle busts and a fantastic 14 line-breaks along the way. His main threat, Ryan Crotty, averaged 61 run metres, 50 tackle busts, and 10 line-breaks.
The other impressive thing the Waratahs have which the Crusdaers don’t is a 10 and 12 who are also eating up the run metres. Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale run tighter lines, so they are never going to be up there with Folau, but both are averaging a lot more run metres than their rivals.
Foley averaged a whopping 73 run metres per 80 minutes from fly-half, with 46 tackle busts and 12 line breaks. He also topped the competiton for points scored.
Beale, who has scored two more tries than Foley with eight this year, also averaged a very good 62 run metres, with 29 tackle busts and an equal 12 line-breaks.
We can’t compare this with Dan Carter, as he was on sabbatical for most of the season, but if he had’ve played all season, he may have scored more points than Foley and created more opportunities than Beale but he is not a player who can make those sorts of metres week-in, week-out.
Colin Slade’s numbers tell a compelling story. An average 42 run metres per 80 minutes and 27 tackle busts, with 6 line-breaks, from almost as many minutes as the Waratahs’ inside backs, says the Crusaders don’t have the firepower through those inside channels either.
It would be about now that Crusaders fans and Waratah haters in general should play the Nemani Nadolo card. Nadolo averaged 99 metres per 80 minutes, which is a bit less than Folau but almost as impressive. Even more so when considered he made 54 tackle busts and 17 line-breaks with almost as many tries as Folau. He is their trump card and the Waratahs need to keep him away from the action. Rob Horne in comparison has averaged a very healthy 70 run metres, with 29 tackle busts and 7 line breaks.
It leaves us with the strange feeling that this final could be very one-sided in the opposite way that popular belief would have us think.
For most people this week will be about convincing themselves that it is the Crusaders who hold all the trump cards. For mine they hold maybe 3, while the Waratahs hold eight!
Waratahs to run away with it in the final 20 minutes and win by 14. You heard it here first.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.