Expert
I haven’t had time this week to prepare any of my regular video analysis in advance of the 2014 Super Rugby final which I was looking forward to as there’s plenty to analyse.
As I started writing this article my son rang me. I’m not a betting man but he likes an occasional punt for a bit of fun and he told me he planned to back the Waratahs to win by more than three points for this weekend’s final. By the time we ended the call he told me he was changing his tip and taking the Crusaders to win or to lose by no more than five points.
That sounds like a better bet to me so what did I tell him that convinced him to change his tip?
I want the Waratahs to win, as I want any Australian team to beat a New Zealand or South African team, but while the heart says Tahs, the head says Crusaders.
I gave him five reasons why the Crusaders will spoil the party.
There’s also a major semi-final to prepare for on Sunday with the University of Queensland premier grade team I help coach, so I haven’t had time to prepare any of my regular video analysis. However, my plans for a 3D analysis video were to show how structured the Crusaders are with their attack and how that helps them build momentum.
The Crusaders use a full-width attacking structure to stretch opposition defences, but this season that has tended to become a little side-to-side without penetrating through the middle. Over the last month they’ve made some slight adjustments to rectify that and are back to their relentless best in attack.
The proof that they’re back to their best comes when you see their key wide runner Kieren Read on the end of sweeping plays during a match. Last week they worked the Sharks over, building their momentum through an attacking structure that has essentially been the same since the late 1990s.
Even though the Tahs will know what the Crusaders will bring to the match, there’s a big difference between knowing what to expect and being able to stop it.
While thinking about the keys in this match I looked back at a series of analysis videos I prepared in the lead-up to the Reds and Crusaders final in 2011.
In one of those videos I summarised the threats the Crusaders posed. Watching it again, I made very similar points for the final this year. Of course the Crusaders had some different players in the 2011 team, most notably Sonny Bill Williams, but the threats I identified related to the team, not individuals – exactly what I expect this year.
The threats I mentioned in 2011 were the scrum, momentum gained from their relentless attacking structure, counter attack from turnovers, and counter attack from kick returns.
Here’s that video from The Roar rugby channel on YouTube.
I tipped the Reds to win that 2011 final by seven points, largely due to the match being played at Suncorp Stadium. If the final this year was at the SFS, that would have tipped the match in favour of the Tahs.
I tipped the Tahs to win 11 of their 16 regular season matches this season and they were the team that gave me the best results in The Roar tipping competition. But overall I had a dismal record with my tipping in the rest of the regular season.
I’m four from four in tipping the outcome of the Super Rugby finals this year, but I’ll be happy if I’m wrong this week. However, I’ve told my son not to ask me to reimburse him for a lost bet if the Tahs get up!