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2014 Super Rugby final: Crusaders will spoil the party

30th July, 2014
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The Crusaders should have no problem overcoming the Blues in Round 14. (AAP Image/Paul Miller)
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30th July, 2014
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I haven’t had time this week to prepare any of my regular video analysis in advance of the 2014 Super Rugby final which I was looking forward to as there’s plenty to analyse.

As I started writing this article my son rang me. I’m not a betting man but he likes an occasional punt for a bit of fun and he told me he planned to back the Waratahs to win by more than three points for this weekend’s final. By the time we ended the call he told me he was changing his tip and taking the Crusaders to win or to lose by no more than five points.

That sounds like a better bet to me so what did I tell him that convinced him to change his tip?

I want the Waratahs to win, as I want any Australian team to beat a New Zealand or South African team, but while the heart says Tahs, the head says Crusaders.

I gave him five reasons why the Crusaders will spoil the party.

  1. The Crusaders have turned around their attacking structure over the last month and are now building tremendous momentum during each match – they look like the unstoppable force we’ve come to expect from watching them excel over so many years.
  2. The Waratahs are a really good team with a core group of experienced players, but the Crusaders have so much more big match experience. When it comes to the crucial minutes in a tight match, which I expect this will be, this will make a big difference. If it comes down to a Crusaders player or a Waratahs player to make the vital play, I’d back players like Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and Kieran Read.
  3. The Waratahs are playing well but a team can only play as well as they’re allowed to and the Crusaders are very good at denying the opposition opportunities to play the way they want. The Waratahs will have their own designs on denying the Crusaders opportunities but as I said in point 1, the momentum being generated by the Crusaders will make that very hard.
  4. The Tahs may be playing in Sydney but playing at Homebush removes some of the advantage they would have had at the Sydney Football Stadium. I understand the commercial logic to play the final at the Olympic stadium, but it’s not the real home ground of the Tahs and I won’t be surprised if half of the expected 60,000 crowd aren’t cheering the Crusaders;
  5. The Crusaders are likely to dominate the set piece contests, and if this happens it will disrupt the free-flowing game the Tahs like to play.

There’s also a major semi-final to prepare for on Sunday with the University of Queensland premier grade team I help coach, so I haven’t had time to prepare any of my regular video analysis. However, my plans for a 3D analysis video were to show how structured the Crusaders are with their attack and how that helps them build momentum.

The Crusaders use a full-width attacking structure to stretch opposition defences, but this season that has tended to become a little side-to-side without penetrating through the middle. Over the last month they’ve made some slight adjustments to rectify that and are back to their relentless best in attack.

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The proof that they’re back to their best comes when you see their key wide runner Kieren Read on the end of sweeping plays during a match. Last week they worked the Sharks over, building their momentum through an attacking structure that has essentially been the same since the late 1990s.

Even though the Tahs will know what the Crusaders will bring to the match, there’s a big difference between knowing what to expect and being able to stop it.

While thinking about the keys in this match I looked back at a series of analysis videos I prepared in the lead-up to the Reds and Crusaders final in 2011.

In one of those videos I summarised the threats the Crusaders posed. Watching it again, I made very similar points for the final this year. Of course the Crusaders had some different players in the 2011 team, most notably Sonny Bill Williams, but the threats I identified related to the team, not individuals – exactly what I expect this year.

The threats I mentioned in 2011 were the scrum, momentum gained from their relentless attacking structure, counter attack from turnovers, and counter attack from kick returns.

Here’s that video from The Roar rugby channel on YouTube.

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I tipped the Reds to win that 2011 final by seven points, largely due to the match being played at Suncorp Stadium. If the final this year was at the SFS, that would have tipped the match in favour of the Tahs.

I tipped the Tahs to win 11 of their 16 regular season matches this season and they were the team that gave me the best results in The Roar tipping competition. But overall I had a dismal record with my tipping in the rest of the regular season.

I’m four from four in tipping the outcome of the Super Rugby finals this year, but I’ll be happy if I’m wrong this week. However, I’ve told my son not to ask me to reimburse him for a lost bet if the Tahs get up!

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