Much of the focus on Essendon’s season has been on the storm caused by the supplement scandal.
Looking into their recent form, this off-field noise may be masking a quiet awakening on the field for the Bombers as they right themselves to fire at the pointy end of the season.
Starting the year with a disappointing four wins and five losses, they have compiled a six and two record since the bye to bring them back into the finals race.
Defeating Port Adelaide, Collingwood and the Bulldogs in successive weeks, Essendon have moved into seventh place on the ladder.
After their match-up with the Swans this week the run home is favourable. The remaining four games will be in Melbourne against Richmond, West Coast, Gold Coast and Carlton. All are games they should win against teams below them on the ladder.
Since James Hird took over the coaching reigns, Essendon have moved towards a high possession game style, much like the Geelong teams coached by Mark Thompson. Geelong led the league in disposals from 2008 to 2010, however whereas the Cats favoured handballing almost to an equal ratio to kicking, the modern Essendon teams are more kick happy.
Over the past two seasons Essendon have led the league in kicks and marks, while coming in second place for disposals per game.
Where Thompson has improved the team this year is primarily in its defence and decision making. In 2013 Essendon let opponents score an average of 90 points per game, which was ranked ninth, while in 2014 it has reduced its opponent’s scores to 76 per game, good enough for third behind defensive powerhouses Fremantle and Sydney.
This can be attributed to improved play from individuals in defence such as Cale Hooker, who has raised his game to career best form and is a strong AA candidate, along with unsung defender Michael Hibberd.
The switch of Michael Hurley from a forward to defence has settled his game too. Hurley played in defence as a junior and looks much more comfortable in the back half where he is able to read the play. He is influencing the game with greater consistency while using his raking accurate kicks to set up attacks.
Essendon’s disposal efficiency has improved from ninth to first in the competition since last season. This trait was also familiar to the Thompson-coached Geelong teams, who were always towards the top of the league in disposal efficiency. This improvement is hard to gauge, but could simply be down to players further understanding a game plan which is now in its fourth year of implementation.
Despite dominating statistical categories up the field, Essendon have struggled to kick goals. They are 13th in the league in goals scored per game at 11.9, with the five teams below them (Bulldogs, GWS, Brisbane, Saints and Melbourne) occupying the bottom positions on the ladder.
This is why the recent dominating form of Jake Carlisle has been so critical for a team screaming out for a focal point in the forward half. Blessed with great height and mobility, he is a terror in the air and can completely dominate games with his marking ability.
In the match against the Bulldogs, Carlisle took 10 marks in the forward 50, which is the highest ever recorded by Champion Data. The game prior he took an AFL season high 19 marks against Collingwood.
Although Carlisle initially struggled with his move from defence to the forward line, he has blossomed into a force even Thompson couldn’t have imagined. Over the last two weeks he has averaged 22.5 possessions, 15.5 marks and six goals. If he can provide a strong focal point going forward it will go a long way to shore up that area of the ground.
In the weeks leading into the finals Essendon are set to regain their prime mover Jobe Watso,. who will be a welcome return to a team which has found its feet in his absence. Tom Bellchambers is also not far away, a player who adds goal kicking, marking and ruck work to the side. Young gun Joe Daniher and Hibberd will also return from short-term injuries before the finals begin.
This week’s game against Sydney could prove pivotal for Essendon and they are not without their chances. Sydney will be coming off a six-day beak while Essendon should be fresh from having the week off.
A win against the league leaders, then taking care of business over the final four matches, could vault them into top four contention. A loss likely relegates Essendon to the bottom half of the eight. With their improved form and a firing Carlisle, the Bombers will prove a giant task to overcome for any team they face.
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