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The AFL is now one short month away from September, the home of the AFL finals. So what are the premiership odds of all 18 teams? Where do all teams ambitions lay for the final month of the premiership season?
Sydney (35 per cent)
No, don’t give them the premiership yet. No, they do not have one hand on the cup. No, they haven’t proven anything of significance in 2014 yet. No, you can stop their forward line despite talk to the contrary. No, they aren’t the most determined side in the premiership race. Despite all the nos, are they the heavy favourite? Yes.
Geelong (20 per cent)
While their form has been less than inspiring, the reality is Geelong are on the verge of another top-four finish. Does any team really want to play this battle hardened team in finals?
The answer is no and that that’s what makes Geelong a threat. On top this is a different team to even the 2011 premiership side and there are enough new faces that want retribution for two disappointing finals exits in 2012 and 2013.
It is the new blood that will drive Geelong’s title chances in August and September.
Fremantle (15 per cent)
History tells us that you have to finish top four to be a premiership threat. Fremantle at the moment have checked that marker off. Next step will be top two. For Fremantle top two is as big as it gets as for any of the top five contenders given their home ground advantage.
That top two is still in play. If they need retribution stories, they have a good one in the San Antonio Spurs. Ross, need Patty Mills number?
Hawthorn (13 per cent)
Premiership defences are hard. Ask Hawthorn and they will tell you they are impossible. The positive is that at least they are going to have the right to defend their title in finals this year which was not the case in 2009.
They are staring to be overrun with injury and bad luck approaching the pointy end of the season. Some say 13 is unlucky, Hawthorn say winning in 2013 is unlucky.
Port Adelaide (8 per cent)
One of the better recent comparisons has been of Port Adelaide against the 2008 Hawks, a team that had previous finals experience yet stunned a premiership ahead of their time.
The form line does not testament a premiership contender, however top four is still in their sights and that breeds hope. The 8 per cent figure is a tribute to that Hawthorn team of 2008.
North Melbourne (5 per cent)
If they are to defeat Geelong in Round 19, and perhaps they are favourites to win that match, North Melbourne will be the only team that goes into the finals having had wins against each of the top five teams.
That in itself is an impressive feat. More hopeful for North Melbourne fans is that only the top eight teams contest finals. If it was contested between the bottom eight you would give North Melbourne no shot on 2014 form.
Adelaide (2 per cent)
2 per cent chance is one percent for each premiership they have won from outside the top four which is what they would need to do again in 2014. After being on the outside looking in, they snuck their way into the right at the right time of the year.
Their form in recent weeks indicates of one that could make some noise if they can remain in eighth spot on the ladder. Further incentive for Adelaide to make finals is to set up a mouth watering elimination final clash against Port Adelaide. Save from winning a premiership knocking Port out of finals would be a solid B option.
Gold Coast (1 per cent)
The only hope Gold Coast had of winning a premiership in 2014 was Gary Ablett junior emulating his father’s finals deeds from 1989 and going a step further on that campaign. The moment Ablett’s shoulder hit the Metricon turf was the moment the Gold Coast went from silly chance to one in a hundred.
Collingwood (1 per cent)
Out of form at the wrong time of the year, it appears that Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley cannot piece a season together. Again a slow start, a strong middle and a lukewarm end leaves Collingwood needing a back to the wall performance to back their 2010 premiership with another success.
West Coast, Richmond, Carlton, Western Bulldogs
The second stage of tanking in the AFL with two of these four teams going to ‘win’ the right to 13th and 14th place on the ladder. A position on the ladder which theoretically comes with the best upside of seeing a sharp one season improvement given the AFL’s new fixture model that bases the 2015 fixture of three pools of 2014. Fight it out boys, 13th place here they come.
GWS, Melbourne, Brisbane, St Kilda
Better luck next year, welcome to the chase for the wooden spoon.
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