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Parramatta primed for top eight raid

3rd August, 2014
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Jarryd Hayne (Grant Trouville/nrlphotos.com)
Expert
3rd August, 2014
24
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How would you like to be in the running to make the NRL finals and have two games against Canberra in the last five rounds? That is what the often-weird competition draw has thrown up for Parramatta.

If you’re an Eels fan you must be rubbing your hands together at the thought of getting not one, but two games against a Raiders outfit that is playing poorly and has significant injury problems on top of that.

Parramatta play Canberra next weekend, in an Eels home game the club has taken to Darwin, and again in Canberra in the final round.

The Eels should be able to count on four points from those two games. The presence of Jarryd Hayne in their side should be enough on its own to guarantee that.

How are the Raiders, in the state they’re in, going to stop him from having a big impact against them?

Four points from those two games would take Parramatta to 28 points, with six other points available from games against Canterbury (a home played the club has taken to ANZ Stadium), Manly (at home) and Newcastle away.

To make the finals you generally need at least 28 points, but the Eels – if they do the double against Canberra – might have to get something out of at least one of those other three games to be sure of a place.

They are the only team among the top 10 on the competition table with a points differential that is in negative territory. And it’s more than only just in the red – it’s minus 76.

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Ninth-placed Parramatta are one of four teams on 24 points, along with North Queensland (sixth), the Warriors (seventh) and Melbourne (eighth).

But there is one game left in this round – Wests Tigers against the Storm, at Campbelltown Stadium tonight – that will have a significant effect on the table.

A win to Melbourne would take them to sixth – and possibly even fifth, if they win easily. But if the Tigers win, they will go from 12th to ninth – forcing the Eels back to 10th.

This promises to be a terrific match, because it means so much to both sides. The Tigers have had their distractions over the past week that have been well documented, but they will surely be right up for this game.
Campbelltown Stadium is one of those grounds opposition teams don’t like to visit. Expect the Tigers to be very physical early on as they try to get on top of their opponents.

I don’t think there is anything certain about the makeup of the final eight beyond Manly, South Sydney, Penrith and Sydney Roosters all being there.

Fifth-placed Canterbury are on 26 points, but they have lost three in a row and over the last five rounds they play Brisbane (away), Parramatta, Wests Tigers (home), South Sydney (home) and Gold Coast (away).

It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs not making it, but they’re going to have to lift to negotiate that draw well enough to get there.

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I think the teams currently placed from fifth to 10th – the Bulldogs, Cowboys, Warriors, Storm, Eels and Brisbane – will fight it out to be the other four finalists.

That is, unless the Tigers can win tonight. If they don’t win, the equation will start getting too hard for them, just like I think it already is for 11th-placed St George Illawarra.

The Broncos, like the Dragons and Tigers, are only on 22 points, but they have a differential that is significantly better than that of the Storm, Eels, Dragons and Tigers. That is like another win on a compact competition table.

Brisbane will really make it interesting if they can beat Canterbury at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night.

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