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They say three’s a crowd, well how about five? At the moment that is Steve Hansen and the All Blacks’ conundrum when faced with the prospect of selecting the back three for the opening Rugby Championship Test of the season on Saturday week.
It’s a good selection headache for Hansen and company, but one which will no doubt cause some lengthy debate as they weigh up the individual merits of Ben Smith, Israel Dagg, Julian Savea, Cory Jane and Charles Piutau.
Hansen’s Rubik’s Cube was made a little easier during the recent English series, with Piutau forced out injured and Dagg following suit after the opening Test.
Smith, Savea and Jane held the jerseys for the final two Tests with Smith and Savea performing particularly strongly. After two rather abject performances in the opening two matches, Jane finally came right in the third Test to remind everyone of his class.
When pondering the make-up of the back three it is likely that Hansen will start first with fullback. Here the selectors will be severely tested on their standard policy, which dictates that an incumbent player’s position will not be lost in the event of an injury.
During Hansen’s reign we have seen many a first choice player return immediately to the side following an injury enforced absence.
Dagg has been the incumbent fullback ever since he overtook Mils Muliaina during the 2011 Rugby World Cup, and would likely have stayed there if injury hadn’t struck during the English series. What complicates matters however, is that Ben Smith is the best fullback in the world at present (along with Israel Folau) and was undoubtedly the standout player of the English series.
Add into the equation Daggs’ fairly ordinary Super Rugby form and Smith’s star role for the Highlanders, where he led the competition in metres gained, and the selection issue gets even trickier.
If the selection was based purely on form then it would be a one-horse race with Smith out in front by five lengths, however as the All Black selectors have proved time and time again in recent seasons, selections are equally based on past deeds and not on form alone. And so who will ultimately wear the number 15 jersey is anyone’s guess.
One thing is for certain, such is Ben Smith’s importance and growing stature in the world game, he has to be on the field regardless of what jersey he is wearing.
Julian Savea is another player who is on top of his game at present, and he would have a reasonable claim at currently being the world’s premier wing. His mix of physical brawn and subtle skills make him absolutely lethal, something his record of 23 tries from 22 Tests attests to.
So Savea and Smith are non-negotiable for Hansen, which therefore means the final player to make up the triumvirate will depend on whether Smith appears in the 14 or the 15 jersey.
If Dagg occupies the 15 jumper then Savea and Smith will almost certainly occupy the flanks, while if Smith occupies the 15 jersey then it is likely that the All Blacks selectors will select Jane, who put in a strong third Test performance against England.
Jane is a quality operator when on top of his game and the All Blacks selectors will hope that by putting their faith in him, they will be duly rewarded.
Now I’m placing myself hypothetically in the selectors’ shoes for a moment. In selecting the back three I would have Savea’s name inked in immediately on the left wing. In weighing up the fullback jersey I would then look at what each player brings.
Dagg is safe under the high ball and with his prodigious boot, something that has been absolutely crucial to the All Blacks game of recent years. But Dagg is still prone to the odd mistake and certainly not on top of his game at present. Then there’s Smith, a player that always makes the right decision, whose evasion skills Harry Houdini would be proud of, and a player more likely to free his wingers.
For me the decision is straightforward. Ben Smith at 15, Cory Jane at 14 and Julian Savea at 11. Based on previous selection policies however, I expect the All Blacks to stick to the status quo with Dagg, Smith and Savea likely to be named.
As they say, competition breeds success, and there is no shortage of competition for places in the All Blacks’ outside backs at present.
The Bledisloe is almost here!
Tickets are on sale to what will be a blockbuster at ANZ Stadium (get yours here). After a cracking Super Rugby final, this promises to be epic.There’s also plenty happening in the lead-up, with the Bledisloe Cup Festival a chance for true rugby supporters to get together.
Want to introduce yourself to a few of the players? The Bledisloe Bay is your best bet on Thursday 14th August from 5pm. Check it out!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.