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After the AFL decided to grant priority picks according to a secret formula, we can only guess whether a battling team is likely to receive one.
But we can take a pretty good stab at which club in 2014 is most likely to fulfil the unknown criteria.
After eighteen games, the Demons have notched just four wins. Based on recent form they probably won’t add much to that tally. Over three seasons that record is ten wins from 62 games. Going back to 2007 it is 38 wins from 172 games, easily the worst of any team in the league over that time.
If that doesn’t satisfy whatever formula the AFL has concocted, then you have to wonder about how far a club has to fall in order to ever get a priority pick again.
When Paul Roos took over it appeared his brief was to make the club as competitive as possible in the short term, before steering it towards a long term rebuild. To that end, he brought in experienced players to add some backbone. Rather than play the kids at every opportunity, he’s gotten the most out of fringe players like Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta and Cameron Pederson.
The result has been a modest improvement in Melbourne’s performance on the woeful 2013 season.
But it’s not clear that the Demons currently have the talent on their list to move back up into finals contention.
Melbourne have burned through first round picks in recent years. Mitch Clark cost them pick 12 and netted them nothing. Jimmy Toumpas has been disappointing for a top five selection. The Hogan trade cost them picks 3 and 13 and so far hasn’t yielded much. Since 2007, other first round investments include Cale Morton, Jordan Gysberts, Sam Blease, Lucas Cook and perpetual whipping boy Jack Watts.
The result is a list that doesn’t really have the same upside as other developing teams, especially GWS and Gold Coast.
There’s been a lot of conjecture that Melbourne might receive a top five pick for free agent James Frawley, but he may accept a lower salary to go to a successful club, pushing the compensation down.
You could argue that their problems are their own damn fault, but that would be true to some extent for any club in a similar position. The point of equalisation is that even poorly run clubs shouldn’t have to spend eight consecutive seasons propping up the ladder.
Melbourne need more assistance to get talented players onto their list. And following significant changes to the off-field structure, including a big investment in a successful coach, they should be confident that from here on they can start to get better returns from new recruits.
The problem is that they might have their hand out at the worst possible time.
Priority and compensation picks aren’t free. Every time the AFL gives them out it pushes everyone else down one spot. Perhaps it’s more accurate to think of it as shutting out other clubs from drafting a talented player.
And there are plenty of clubs entitled to feel that too many picks have been frozen away.
Anyone forced to try and rebuild through the last few seasons has had to do so with compromised drafts, and the two expansion clubs in the box seat to take talented players.
While the league expands, the talent pool can only go so far, and in particular key forwards have become a rare commodity. Jesse Hogan, Tom Boyd, Jonathan Patton and Jeremy Cameron would have been enormously helpful to the likes of St Kilda, Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs, but they’ve only been available to or through Greater Western Sydney.
Other clubs might not have struggled as much as Melbourne over the past few seasons, but they’re still entitled to a fair chance to rebuild their list through the draft, and every time a concession is given to someone else that is made harder.
Plus the AFL has made a big investment in the two expansion clubs, and they’re unlikely to agree to anything that will push them further down the draft order.
A priority pick might come at the end of the first round rather than the beginning, but it still deprives other clubs of a player they could use. And a later pick would only be of minor benefit to the Demons anyway.
Based on what the AFL has said publicly, external factors or other support provided won’t be taken into account – it’s a straight up calculation based on results and injuries.
But the reality is that any formula kept secret can be secretly changed.
And that’s why the AFL is facing a dilemma over a priority pick for the Demons.
I can’t believe that Melbourne wouldn’t be entitled to a priority pick under any reasonable formula at the end of this season. But equally I can’t believe that the AFL would give them more assistance if they didn’t have to.
Possibly the AFL has anticipated this, and already set the bar for a priority pick so that no one could possibly sink that low.
It might be that after a few years, once the compromised drafts aren’t having so much of an impact, the secret formula will be changed to make it more likely struggling clubs can receive extra picks. We’ll probably never know if that’s the case.
If so, then Melbourne might be facing an especially long rebuilding phase, even after several miserable seasons. They’d better make sure they get full value from their early picks from here on.
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