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Only two short weeks stand in the way of what will most likely be the best Rugby Championship to date, and already the stakes are high for every team involved.
The three most prominent sides of world rugby, the Australian Wallabies, the South African Springboks and the New Zealand All Blacks, are all fully capable of claiming the 2014 title and the Argentine Pumas look to impose themselves and claim that elusive first win.
The SANZAR countries usually do well in the June international window but very seldom do all three these sides boast squads of such impeccable quality and depth. And on top of this, all three countries are on form, full of belief and hungry for world domination.
But if there is one thing we’ve learnt over the past two seasons it’s that the Pumas are no pushovers. They have made huge strides in quality after being included in rugby’s toughest playground. Underestimate them at your own risk.
So without further delay, let’s delve into the odds of all four sides.
Argentina
The Pumas were included into the competition in 2012 and have not won a single game since, but they have managed a draw against the Springboks. They have also pushed the All Blacks and the Wallabies hard in recent games, especially the All Blacks in New Zealand last year.
The Pumas will look at those games and will draw belief from it. They drew with the second best team in the world in 2012 at Mendoza. Considering the fact that the Springboks remain unbeaten against all northern hemisphere teams since Heyneke Meyer’s tenure, the draw in Mendoza is quite a feat.
The Pumas are ranked lower than England, Wales, France and Ireland. These are teams who have failed to get one over the Boks and yet the Pumas managed a draw.
The fixture against the Springboks in Argentina might be their best shot at getting a win. In the past two years they have shown that they are truly capable of winning this game. The Springboks struggled in both 2012 and 2013, and the hostile Argentinian crowd seems to have a rather potent effect on the Boks.
In both these games the Pumas scored first and as history tells us the Boks don’t like that kind of early pressure. Discipline ultimately cost them and therein lies the keys to success. They should do what they did in both games and sharpen up their discipline. If they do this, based on the two previous games, the Pumas can defeat the Springboks.
What will hurt however, is the fact that they open their campaign in South Africa at Loftus. The Springboks will look to give them a little bit of their own medicine. Of all the venues in South Africa, Loftus is by far the most intimidating stadium for both the Boks and the Bulls to play at. The fans just get stuck in there and fill the team with power.
However, this doesn’t mean that the Pumas should just forget the challenge that lies in Australasia. The Kiwis haven’t been able to blow the Pumas away at home like the Springboks and Wallabies have, but what will linger on their minds is the fact that the All Blacks have annihilated them in Argentina. Whether or not the Pumas can beat the Wallabies this year remains to be seen as the Australians haven’t been truly tested. But if their Super Rugby form is anything to go by it will be a long shot.
Australia
Deserved holders of the Super Rugby trophy and a nice winning streak to go with it, the Wallabies may just be the form team in the competition this year.
In June they destroyed a horrible, ghastly Les Blues team with some wonderful running rugby. But both Ewen McKenzie and every Aussie fan will know that that series was no measurement of their strength this year.
Nevertheless, there is every reason to be optimistic about the Wallabies when you compare their current form with that of last year. Their star players are all in the form of their lives.
They will look to inspirational captain Michael Hooper to set the example, and if he does then players like Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Matt Toomua and Wycliff Palu will destroy all that lies before them.
The unavailability of players like Will Genia and Quade Cooper does leave a dent in their arsenal, but their replacements Nic White and Toomua are fully capable of directing the team.
The first and second Tests against the All Blacks will be a cracker. The world champions have been in cruise-mode since their coronation in 2011 and defeating them feels like mission impossible. Not even I dare to make a prediction.
After this they will face the Springboks in Perth. Again, it could swing either way depending on their true form which will be revealed against the All Blacks.
The Wallabies have had a bit of a horrid run against the Springboks, losing three games in a row by 20 to 30 points each. To top it all off Perth is a bit of a happy hunting ground for the Boks through the years.
But this Wallabies side should be much stronger than that of 2012 and 2013, and that can be the telling factor. The Wallabies need to win both Tests against the Boks and both against the Pumas with bonus points in each should they lose twice against the All Blacks.
If they play to their full potential they may very well win the title.
South Africa
The Springboks find themselves in the most precarious situation in 2014. While many like myself celebrated the spectacular 2013 season, few realised it’s implications on the current season.
What I mean by that is that while it’s always good to have a stellar season it also means that more is expected of you in the next.
The translation? The only way they can improve on last year is if they defeat the All Blacks while not losing to the Wallabies.
That is one hell of a standard to live up to. Should they lose both games against the All Blacks again and lose against the Wallabies even once their season will be regarded as a step backwards, and that is not where Meyer would want to be.
But of course there are positives as well.
They open their campaign at Fortress Loftus against the Pumas. A huge score with a bonus point like last year would set them up handsomely. And then they will travel to Argentina and, as crazy as it sounds, a win there could set them up for some silverware.
As I mentioned above, they do struggle in Argentina for reasons known and unknown. Should they get the monkey off their backs and record another good bonus point win in this game the Springboks will well and truly be in with a better chance than last year.
Perth is one of their lesser feared grounds. Their win percentage there isn’t all too shabby and depending on the Wallabies’ secret true strength they could win this game, which would do wonders for their confidence.
This will see them head to Waikato. We all know a win in New Zealand is like Haley’s Comet, it only comes once in a blue moon. They might win this game but the probability is slim to say the least.
Returning home after a week off they will face the Wallabies at DHL Newlands yet again. They will feel comfortable with this seeing as Newlands remains a battlefield few Aussies have conquered. But as the history breaking win at Suncorp showed us last year it is not impossible to lose.
The grand finale will be at Ellis Park against the titans of rugby. If the Springboks enter this game with the same state of mind as last year, and if they have improved their fitness, they might finally defeat the All Blacks.
Their squad is an improvement on the squads of past years, and Meyer has built some good depth. The absence of Fourie du Preez will haunt them but the return of numerous injured players will bolster them.
Jean de Villiers returns to lead the crusade and by his side he will have deputy Victor Matfield for advice. The Boks will once again rely on their potent loose trio, counting on South Africa’s most underrated player Duane Vermeulen as the team’s defensive captain. Bismarck du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Willem Alberts and Bryan Habana will have to be at their very best to carry the team to glory.
They might not be favourites but the Springboks have destiny in their own hands.
New Zealand
What else can you say about this team? The Kiwis have assembled a monsterous squad of players for their campaign and to think that players like Sonny Bill Williams, Rene Ranger and Richard Kahui aren’t even included is a scary thought.
The All Blacks remain the benchmark of world rugby. They once again stand at the cusp of rewriting the history books, and are once again the undisputed favourites for the title.
Their mission is simple. Win every single game and win them well. With the soldiers at their disposal it seems all the more probable. Richie McCaw, Daniel Carter, Kieran Read, Conrad Smith, Israel Dagg and Julian Savea are feared for good reason.
The All Blacks open their campaign against the Wallabies and will look to assert their supremacy. They know all too well that the Wallabies pose a threat to their ambitions and only a fool would think that they will take the game lightly.
On match day history counts for nothing and they know that. If the Wallabies bring it to them we might see the best game of the year.
It’s hard picturing them losing to the Pumas in the competition but stranger things have happened. The All Blacks as ever won’t underestimate them and will look to bag two good wins over them.
But their main objective this year might be to crush their rivals’ spirits one year out from the World Cup.
The greatest rivalry in rugby between the All Blacks and the Springboks will provide the necessary enlightenment as to who stands the best chance next year. If they do win both games then Meyer will have a zero per cent record against them before a World Cup year.
This would completely destroy the Springboks’ confidence and that’s exactly what the All Blacks need at this stage to defend their title.
The world will witness this titanic clash for glory in high definition detail once the teams take to the field. All the teams’ previous form will count for nothing if they don’t perform in this year’s championship.
The gauntlet is thrown. Who will bask in its magnificence?
The Bledisloe is almost here!
Tickets are on sale to what will be a blockbuster at ANZ Stadium (get yours here). After a cracking Super Rugby final, this promises to be epic.There’s also plenty happening in the lead-up, with the Bledisloe Cup Festival a chance for true rugby supporters to get together.
Want to introduce yourself to a few of the players? The Bledisloe Bay is your best bet on Thursday 14th August from 5pm. Check it out!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.