At the moment, it would appear Marcus Bontempelli is the clear frontrunner for the 2014 Rising Star.
The bookies have him as a $1.85 favourite, far ahead of equal second-placed favourites Tom Langdon and James Aish, who both sit on $6.
If you’ve been following Bontempelli since his Round 5 debut, it’s not that hard to see why.
He started relatively slow, copping the sub vest when the Dogs played Essendon in Round 7 and contributing without being spectacular against Carlton (Round 5) and the Suns (Round 10).
Since that Round 10 game he’s played every match. He has averaged 17.4 touches, 4.5 inside 50s, 3.4 tackles and close to three clearances and a goal a game. That holds him in good company as a first year player, but anyone who has watched him knows that the stats don’t tell the story.
His efforts to win the game against Melbourne off his own boot represented a huge change in the fortunes of Bontempelli, previously looked at as a bit of a project player. Even if he doesn’t win the Rising Star, he may well win goal of the year for his second of two goals that brought the Dogs home.
The versatility shown from the 192-centimetre player, who is comfortable in a variety of roles, has also been a boon for the Dogs given that their midfield bats deep.
Around that time period (Round 15), he was sublime against Geelong (Round 16) with his efforts around the ground, found the ball very well against the Pies (Round 13) and showed off his goal-kicking prowess with a monster against Port (Round 14).
He hasn’t played a poor game this season if you exclude the match with the green vest. But is a four-block game of fantastic performances surrounded by performances that are on par with other contenders enough to win the award?
The Rising Star committee love to keep their nominations fairly well spread, and at times seemingly give them out at random – see Jake Stringer missing out after nine goals in two matches. But the method to the occasional madness seems to be you either play a massive game or we reward someone based on consistent form (cases like Stringer being the exception).
Does this apply to the award itself? Let’s look at the number of regular season games played by the eventual winners in the past decade.
Jaeger O’Meara – 22
Daniel Talia – 22
Dyson Heppell – 22
Daniel Hannebery – 19
Daniel Rich – 22
Rhys Palmer – 20
Joel Selwood – 18
Danyle Pearce – 22
Brett Deledio – 22
Jared Rivers – 21
That’s an average of 21 games per season and points to a large body of work being preferred by the panel.
Kade Kolodjashnij looks set to return against Carlton after a two-week layoff, while the highly touted and impressive Luke Dunstan will sadly miss the rest of the season.
If we assume the rest of the favourites play the remaining four games, then Luke McDonald (North Melbourne), James Aish and Lewis Taylor (Brisbane Lions), Tom Langdon (Collingwood), Harry Cunningham (Sydney Swans), Jonathon Patton (Greater Western Sydney) and Jarman Impey (Port Adelaide) will reach or pass that 21 game threshold.
Kolodjashnij (Gold Coast), Josh Kelly and Sam Frost (GWS), Zach Merrett (Essendon), Jack Billings (St Kilda), Jake Lloyd (Swans), Marco Paparone (Lions), Sean Lemmens (Gold Coast), Stringer (Western Bulldogs), Troy Menzel (Carlton) and Joe Daniher (Essendon) will reach or pass the 18 game mark Joel Selwood won the award with in 2007.
The only nominees to date not mentioned in that above pack, excluding the aforementioned Dunstan, are Dylan Buckley (Carlton), Matt Crouch (Adelaide), Nathan Hrovat (Bulldogs), Darcy Gardiner (Lions) and… Marcus Bontempelli.
Bontempelli has played 12 games to date and should push that up to 16 by the end of the year.
So can Bontempelli buck the trend? Many people seem to think so and there’s no doubting he’s the favourite in the eye of the general public going into the last four games of the season.
When Selwood won in 2007, that Geelong side went on to win the premiership and he was a valuable contributor. For Bontempelli to win with two less games played, his influence on his side would either have to be greater, or the field much weaker. Given the award has looked like a tussle for weeks, it’s hard to argue the latter.
If he produces another four games like he did from rounds 13-16, it’d make it easier to ignore the games played precedent set over the past decade. Despite the name, it’s not about who will have the best season in a few years. It’s about who had the best season when they were eligible.
So is the favouritism unwarranted?
This is not a comment on Bontempelli’s ability. In my mind there’s no doubt he’ll be a very good player for the Bulldogs going forward and there’s plenty to be excited about regardless of whether he wins an award or not.
But despite the odds and media talk, the past seems to indicate that while Bontempelli should make the top five and has no doubt been a revelation, he won’t win the Rising Star in 2014.
At least without signifying a change in how much the weighting individual games have on the voting process.
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