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Hinkley is spot on - teams outside the top four "not good enough"

10th August, 2014
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10th August, 2014
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Each year we hear about the importance of reaching the top four. The biggest statistic in finals’ football is that only once since the AFL commenced an eight team finals’ system has a team from outside the top four won the flag.

That team was the 1998 Adelaide Crows, when they came from a fifth place finish on the ladder at the end of the regular season to successfully win what would be back-to-back premierships.

The obvious reason, apart from the fact that the top-four teams have proven to be the best throughout the entire home-and-away seasons, is because of the pathway to the grand final for those inside the top four.

CATCH UP ON THE LATEST AFL HIGHLIGHTS:
>>Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers
>>GWS Giants vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
>>Carlton Blues vs Gold Coast Suns
>>Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons
>>Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans
>>Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers
>>St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs
>>West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood Magpies

Any of the top-four teams need to only win twice to make the grand final, and at least one if not both of those games are at their home ground – a massive advantage, particularly for the interstate clubs.

Interstate teams hosting preliminary finals have an amazing conversion rate of advancing to the grand final.

Since 1994, when the top eight began, 13 times a non-Victorian club has hosted a game in the penultimate week of the competition. That home team has won and advanced to the grand final on 11 occasions.

The only two exceptions, ironically saw the hosting team beaten by a fellow non-Victorian club, and that club wold then go on to win the flag a week later – in 2003 when the Swans lost to Brisbane, and again in 2006 when Adelaide lost to West Coast.

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It’s going to happen again this year. The 2014 premiers will be one of the top-four teams, but not simply because of their easier path to the decider, but because they are clearly better than the teams which will make up the other four places.

After watching his team beaten by the Sydney Swans, Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley declared, “We’re not a long way away, but we’re not good enough to be with the best.”

It doesn’t matter if they are a little way or a long way, they aren’t close enough. And this from the man whose club not too long ago appeared to be the only challenger to those top four, and a team, while having slid dramatically down the ladder, still likely to be atop the ‘other’ four come September.

And he’s right. Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and Fremantle are so far ahead of the rest, it’s almost ridiculous.

There is usually one team which could, if things went right, fight their way through the finals and win it all from outside the top four. It’s not the case in 2014.

Having spent several hours on the AFL’s ladder predictor, I came up with a final eight that sees Hawthorn finish on top, Sydney second, Geelong third, and Fremantle fourth.

Then comes Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, followed by West Coast and Adelaide, and staring in from just outside are Collingwood and Essendon.

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Port did beat Geelong this season but it was back in Round 6, and the Cats have improved, and Port slumped. Port also beat Fremantle back in Round 8, but the Power were a lot better back then.

North are the wildcards for many people, but which North turns up is often the problem. At their best they can compete, but being at their best is not a common occurrence.

The Roos did beat Hawthorn in Round 16, Fremantle in Round 6 and Sydney in Round 4, but they have also lost games to teams they shouldn’t have. If they are hot, they are a chance, if they are cold, they are also-rans.

As for the Crows, they are going better now than they were when the lost to Sydney, Geelong and Fremantle earlier in the season, and they did run Hawthorn to a couple of kicks, but again, look like world beaters one day, disappoint the next.

And West Coast, well what can we make of them? Losses to all of the big four, but in recent weeks they seem to have found some form. Some form, but again, not enough to trouble the big guns.

So now we’ll see the last three weeks play out, and watch those battling for a spot give blood and sweat to play an extra week or two. And the top four, jockeying for positions and more importantly form, heading into the September.

Geelong have been good in recent weeks, Freo are always a threat, but for me, it’s still Sydney and Hawthorn.

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